PICKS

Race 1:   7 - 4 - 3 - 8
Race 2:   2 - 7 - 6 - 1
Race 3:   2 - 3 - 5 - 7
Race 4:   2 - 7 - 1 - 4
Race 5:   1 - 3 - 10 - 2
Race 6:   2 - 5 - 7 - 9
Race 7:   3 - 5 - 1 - 7
Race 8:   2 - 7 - 5 - 8
Race 9:   8 - 2 - 7 - 4
Race 10:   5 - 1 - 8 - 9

PLAYS

(Guide - WIN: recommended win/key horse at fair odds; UPGRADE: value horses I picked underneath to consider upgrading in vertical/horizontal wagers; USE: runners to include in vertical exotic wagers with Win horse)

RACE 2: DEEP COVER (#2)

Christophe Clement obviously holds a pretty strong hand in this NY-bred optional claimer. Phantom Smoke (#7) is arguably the one to beat off his last couple of speed figures. He earned a 110 TimeformUS number for his strong second-place finish off the layoff, when he attacked an extremely fast pace that fell apart. He earned a similar speed figure last time, but I wasn’t as thrilled with his effort, as he got a pretty good trip tracking the pace and just lacked late punch. He may win here because he just looks fastest on the way in, but I’m not willing to take another short price. Clement’s other runner Yarrow (#6) is also in strong form, coming off two consecutive victories. He’s just stepping way up in class after defeating weaker in his prior starts. He also needs some pace to close into, and it’s unclear how much of that he’s going to get in this spot. I prefer Deep Cover (#2). This horse exits that same June 26 affair in which Phantom Smoke was second, but he was one of the pacesetters that day. Deep Cover was rushed forward early to contest the pace with Not Phar Now through a suicidal opening quarter. Both understandably faded, though it should be noted that Not Phar Now has since come back to run two drastically improved efforts off that performance. I’m thinking Deep Cover can do the same here, especially since he looks like the primary speed from the inside.

WIN: #2 Deep Cover, at 2-1 or greater

RACE 5: REUX (#1)

The obvious horse to beat in this $32k claimer is Devamani (#3), winner of the Grade 2 Knickerbocker and Grade 3 Monmouth Stakes, who is dropping down significantly after having plenty of success for these connections. He just hasn’t come back in the same form now that he’s an 8-year-old. For what it’s worth, Chad Brown is 6 for 10 (60%, $3.25 ROI) with non-maidens getting 50% claiming tag dropdowns over the past 5 years. He’s a deserving favorite, but I am a little concerned about his running style in a race that lacks a clear pace scenario. The other noteworthy dropdown in this field is Monarchs Glen (#10). However, his recent form leaves a lot to be desired and he’s another lacking early speed. Mertkan Kantarmaci has entered two uncoupled runners for turf and I think they’re both fairly interesting. Attentive (#3) looks logical as he drops slightly off the claim for $40k last time. I thought he put in a decent effort, and he also feels like one that can be slightly more forward than few other contenders. My top pick is Reux (#1). I know his recent form looks terrible, but he feels like the potential controlling speed in this race. I also like him stretching out in distance, since he was most effective at a mile and beyond when racing overseas earlier in his career. Kantarmaci has deceptively strong statistics off the claim on turf, especially over the past two years. He’s showing an improved worktab for this race, and may be ready for a step forward at a big price.

WIN: #1 Reux, at 8-1 or greater
USE: 2,3,10

RACE 6: GRAND LOVE (#2)

This maiden special weight feels like a very strong affair, but I’ve said that about a few races at this meet that haven’t quite lived up to expectations. There are two solid runners with experience as well as several first time starters that have been working well. Among those who have run, I’m most afraid of Rarify (#5). She was beaten by a pretty good filly in Kaling on debut, but showed good speed that day before settling for second. This daughter of Justify is a half-sister to Runhappy, so there are certainly expectations. She’s trained well since then and has a right to step forward. Spelterini (#7) is the other second time starter who ran well on debut. She closed well for second on opening day of the meet, and was flattered when Chocolate Gelato exited that race to win impressively last weekend. She strikes me as one that will ultimately want more ground, but she showed enough on debut to be effective here. Yet there are a few firsters that have to be considered. Chad Brown has a pair of fillies who both appear to be working well. I slightly prefer Peak Popularity (#9), who is drawn well outside and has some speed on the bottom side of her pedigree. Rosie’s Alibi (#8) could take some money as a MyRacehorse-owned Pletcher trainee. She’s looked best in each of her last two drills from the gate. My top pick is Grand Love (#2). Steve Asmussen hasn’t had much success with 2-year-old firsters so far at this meet, but he has excellent stats with these types over the past few years. She’s bred to be a good one as a half-sister to Grade 1 winner Malibu Prayer and graded stakes winner Valid, both of whom were dirt routers. Gun Runner is a 20% juvenile debut sire, so she gets some precocity there. I love the way she’s working for her debut, as she always appears to be going easy in company. She was paired with debut runner-up Powerful in that Aug. 8 workout and was going favorably with that more experienced stablemate, looking very much like one with real talent.

WIN: #2 Grand Love, at 5-2 or greater

RACE 9: DANSE MACABRE (#8)

Wesley Ward sends out two runners in this Bolton Landing, including likely favorite Love Reigns (#2), who is returning to the U.S. following a solid effort in the Group 2 Queen Mary at Royal Ascot. Her career debut at Keeneland was obviously very impressive, as she earned a 97 TimeformUS Speed Figure for that performance. Ward has great stats with these types, as he is 12 for 22 (55%, $3.35 ROI) with 2-year-old foreign shippers over the past 5 years. A return to that form makes her an obvious contender, though I’m not sure she deserves to be an overwhelming favorite. This came up a pretty strong field for this type of race and there are definitely others to consider. My top pick is Danse Macabre (#8). She showed ability in her debut when second to Schuylerville runner-up Summer Promise, and it felt like she really took a step forward on the turf last time. Though she broke her maiden at Colonial, she did so in a turf race that seems pretty strong for the level. She earned a 102 TimeformUS Speed Figure for the performance, which is the highest number in this field. She drew away impressively in the lane and there were some significant gaps behind her, often a hallmark of a fast race. Trainer Kelsey Danner does excellent work with turf sprinters and is 5 for 19 (26%, $5.08 ROI) in turf sprints at NYRA over the past 5 years. Among the others I would use underneath are Kerry (#4) and Redifined (#7). The former ran poorly at Monmouth last time, but didn't get the best trip and will be effective if she can run back to her maiden score. Redifined was a professional winner on debut and seems like a candidate to improve in her second start.

WIN: #8 Danse Macabre, at 5-2 or greater

RACE 10: EMPRESS THEODORA (#5)

I’m pretty skeptical of likely favorite Vagaries (#8) in this maiden claimer. She had run reasonably well as a 2-year-old in some tough spots, but I thought she lacked some finish in both of those starts, especially second time out. Her return from the layoff was pretty lackluster, as she didn’t take much money that day and showed absolutely nothing during her performance. It just feels like she’s one that hasn’t gone on since last year, and now she’s being dropped in for the tag. She can obviously win, but I thought some others were more interesting. My top pick is Empress Theodora (#5). There are obviously some questions as she returns from a layoff after putting forth a poor effort in her only start of the year. Yet she put in a decent performance on the turf last year. She was obviously no match for runaway winner Baby Blythe, but she was chasing a fast pace that fell apart and stayed on decently until the final furlong. The 98 TimeformUS Speed Figure that she earned for that performance is the best in this field, and she’ll be tough if still capable. The other horse that interests me at a big price is Ironic Lady (#1). It doesn’t appear that she showed much in her turf sprint debut last year, but she was actually running on well in the late stages, running the fastest final eighth of anyone in the field. She’s bred to stretch out and may have more to offer as she drops in class off the layoff. It is interesting that John Velazquez is riding for this barn.

WIN: #5 Empress Theodora, at 7-2 or greater
UPGRADE: #1 Ironic Lady, 10-1 or greater