by David Aragona
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Race 1: 5 - 2 - 7 - 4
Race 2: 5 - 3 - 7 - 8
Race 3: 4 - 1 - 6
Race 4: 8 - 2 - 1 - 7
Race 5: 4 - 8 - 6 - 2
Race 6: 8 - 1 - 9 - 7
Race 7: 1 - 4 - 11 - 9
Race 8: 7 - 4 - 1 - 2
Race 9: 1 - 2 - 5 - 7
Race 10: 6 - 2 - 4 - 3
RACE 2: TENCH (#5)
Ahead of Plan may go off as the favorite in this spot despite his lack of turf experience. This colt was touted at Saratoga lastsummer and ran a winning race, only to get run down by Travers starter Endorsed. He didn’t run badly in his return when compromised by a rail bias, and he actually has some pedigree to handle turf. His dam’s production has been spotty, but she did produce a multiple turf sprint stakes winner in Japan. That July 27 turf work was in company with turf stakes winner Stella di Camelot, and this colt held his own against her. Yet Chad Brown is just 3 for 18 (17%, $0.99 ROI) with maidens trying turf for the first time in sprints. His main rival is Real Money, who has entered the stretch with a daylight advantage in 4 of his 5 starts. However, he’s lost ground through the lane each time. While you can make some excuses for his losses in November and May, this last defeat as the favorite was pretty disappointing. Given his obvious distance limitations, the turnback to 5 1/2 furlongs should give him his best chance yet to hang on. However, he may get some early pressure from my top pick. I’m taking a shot with Tench. This gelding could be the thorn in Real Money’s side, since he’s shown plenty of speed on the dirt and would be pretty dangerous if he were to transfer that early zip to the turf. Majesticperfectionwins with 11 percent of his first time turfers and 16 percent with turf starters overall. The dam never tried turf, but she has produced one turf winner, Coltrane, who won once on turf and five times on synthetic. It’s also notable that all of this dam’s foals earned their best speed figures on turf despite not winning over it. Those last two turf works over at Oklahoma jump off the page, and I won’t be surprised if he improves on this surface.
RACE 5: MISS MYSTIQUE (#4)
Originator is probably the horse to beat despite the rise in class as she steps up to facing N2X company. She raced well against stakes company in a series of starts last year, so she may not have to improve much on her 3-year-old form to contend with this group. She’s a closing type, but she was pretty keen off the layoff last time, which bodes well for her chances in this paceless race. The Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring runners on or near the lead. At first glance, that would appear to benefit horses like Violent Times and Really Proud, though neither one is necessarily a need-the-lead type. Yet, I’m hoping that the actually beneficiary is the longshot Miss Mystique. I know she doesn’t look as fast as the two aforementioned fillies, but she was compromised by poor starts in each of her two turf starts this year. It’s possible that she’s developed gate problems, but I tend to think it was a fluke, given that she broke well in her dirt victory two back. Kendrick Carmouche wanted to be aggressive with her last time, but she ended up rushing up after that slow start, which cost her a better placing. This filly is a little inconsistent, but she’s good enough to compete against this crew when she’s at her best. She proved that back in November when she defeated the good allowance horse Mentality with an aggressive ride. I prefer her to a deep closer like Enthusiastic Gal, who probably doesn’t want to go this far.
RACE 8: BULLETIN (#7)
Front Run the Fed may go off as the favorite in this Better Talk now off his dazzling victory going seven furlongs at Belmont back in May. It’s hard to know what to make of that performance, given the turf conditions. There clearly was a significant amount of give in the ground, and Front Run the Fed obviously handled it whereas the others that finished behind did not seem to appreciate the going. It is true that a number of horses that finished behind him have returned to earn improved speed figures in their subsequent starts, but I’m not sure that’s necessarily useful information under these particular circumstances. This horse has to negotiate a route distance successfully for the first time, and it’s fair to question where he’s been for the past three months. I’m using him defensively, but I strongly prefer his main rival Bulletin. I’ve always been intrigued to see how this horse would do when they finally stretched him out in distance, since he’s bred to handle it. He’s by versatile sire City Zip, whose progeny can certainly go at least a mile, and he’s a half-brother to Tiz Miz Sue, a millionaire dirt router who won the Grade 1 Ogden Phipps a number of years ago. Javier Castellano has some options from this outside post position, and the Pace Projector indicates he’s faster than all of his rivals except perhaps Performer, who is also entered to run on Saturday. If that one comes out, Bulletin could find himself in a favorable position. I like the way he’s training into this race and I think he can get back on track in this spot. The other two horses that I want to include are Swamp Rat and Our Braintrust. The former actually ran very well in the Hall of Fame last time after becoming rank in the early stages. Our Braintrust is a question mark on the turf, but Mark Casse has always been pointing him to this surface and he worked well over it recently.
RACE 9: MO GOTCHA (#1)
It’s a little odd to say that a horse who has never crossed the wire first is the horse to beat in an allowance race, but that’s probably the case when it comes to Meet Me in L A. After racing very greenly in his sprint debut, this horse has really put things together in his last two starts. He gave Travers starter Highest Honors all that he could handle in that maiden event two back and then last time he probably would have won had Spice Island not herded him out in the late stages. It’s also possible that he didn’t appreciate the muddy surface that day and will revert to his performance two back over fast going. I’m using him prominently, but this is a pretty wide open affair. The Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring runners on or near the lead, and there really is not much speed signed on for this race. The Pace Projector depicts Mo Gotcha on the lead, and while I don’t think this runner necessarily needs to be in front, he’s an intriguing option at a square price. He’s just not a sprinter, so he badly needed his debut sprinting. He’s really improved ever since they stretched him out in distance and he arguably would have done even better in those races had he not been compromised by his trips. He was hindered by a strong inside bias on both May 10 and then he was unwisely restrained in the early going on June 8 in a race where he appeared to be the potential speed. He was on a good rail for much of that race, but so was the winner. I think he’s going to relish this nine-furlong distance and I think we’ve yet to see the best he has to offer.
RACE 10: SWEET GISEL (#6)
I suppose the horse to beat in this finale is Augusta Moon. Todd Pletcher actually has very good statistics with horses dropping from maiden special weight to maiden claiming company on the turf, as he is 16 for 57 (28%, $2.11 ROI) with the move over the past 5 years. This filly certainly took to turf well enough in her debut over the surface last time. However, she got a little rank in the early going, which cost her some energy at the finish. Therefore, it’s no surprised that the blinkers are coming off for this next start on grass. I’m using her prominently, but I prefer some others. Art Thief makes plenty of sense in her first start off the claim for George Weaver. She had shown some promise in her first couple of turf starts in New Jersey, and she transferred that form to Belmont last time. She arguably could have finished much closer in that race, but she got buried inside coming to the top of the stretch and had to alter course with no place to go in the lane. I don’t the layoff since she ran two races in the span of 8 days back in June. My one reservation is that she’s been outrun in the early going in those prior starts, but the blinkers may put a bit more speed into her. I’m using her prominently, but I have to go back to Sweet Gisel as my top pick. I had been very interested in this filly in her turf debut last time, since she actually has plenty of pedigree to handle this surface. Unfortunately, it all went awry at the start, as she was squeezed back between horses and forced to rate in last. Joel Rosario did the right thing by not rushing her after that, but she was never in a position to win. That said, I thought she actually did show some affinity for turf in the stretch, as she was really accelerating while running past horses in the lane. That’s something she had never done on the dirt. This time, as long as she breaks cleanly, Rosario is supposed to send her to the front, which is typically an advantage in these one mile races on the inner course. She’s going to be a square price and I believe she’s a serious threat to win.