by David Aragona
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Race 1: 3 - 6 - 8 - 5
Race 2: 1 - 8 - 5 - 4
Race 3: 3 - 1 - 4 - 6
Race 4: 5 - 3 - 7 - 6
Race 5: 8 - 3 - 7 - 5
Race 6: 1 - 5 - 3 - 9
Race 7: 3 - 7 - 8 - 11
Race 8: 6 - 3 - 1 - 5
Race 9: 12 - 3 - 8 - 6
Race 10: 11 - 8 - 3 - 2
RACE 2: BLAHNIK (#1)
Miss Rombauer figures to go off as the favorite for Chad Brown, as her stablemate Black Dynamite is stuck on the also-eligible list. There’s plenty to like about this daughter of Scat Daddy. She sold for a hefty $375,000 off an impressive 10 2/5-second workout at the Fasig-Tipton sale. She gets plenty of turf pedigree from her sire, and she’s certainly bred to be a quality filly on the dam’s side. Her dam is a full sister to both Kauai Katie and Winding Way. The former was more of a dirt sprinter, whereas the latter was a turf and synthetic specialist, so she should possess the versatility to run well here. I’m not against her, but these runners are often overbet. There are a few horses with experience to consider. Speedy Solution ran well in her debut on turf, stalking a moderate pace before getting run down in the late stages. I’m using her, but the one I want to bet at a better price is Blahnik. Some may be totally turned off by this filly’s debut, in which she showed absolutely nothing after breaking slowly. That effort was shockingly incongruous with the tote support that she received, as she went off as one of Todd Pletcher’s shortest-priced first-time starters of the meet. It’s a possibility that she just can’t run at all, but I have a suspicion that her connections may have misjudged her by running on the dirt the first time out. While she is a daughter of mediocre turf sire Bernardini, there is plenty of turf pedigree in her female family. Her dam never raced, but she is out of a mare who was strictly a turf horse, winning three times on that surface before placing in stakes company. Looking deeper into this female family, her third dam, Anzille, is a half-sister to Urban Sea, the great European mare who produced Galileo, Sea The Stars, and My Typhoon. She displayed a turfy way of moving in her impressive OBS sale workout back in March, so I think this may be the right spot. Furthermore, I was pleased to see that she broke sharply in her gate drill on Aug. 20.
RACE 4: CRIMINAL MISCHIEF (#5)
The major players in this race are all exiting the July 30 race at this level. Maho Bay finished well ahead of today’s rivals Nocturnal Mission and Curiousncuriouser, but she was greatly aided by a slow early pace. The runner that was hindered most by that race’s pace scenario was Curiousncuriouser, who was bumped hard and squeezed back at the start. She’s capable of rallying from the off the pace, but she could barely make a dent in the margin on this occasion as the leaders sprinted home. This time, Maho Bay figures to have some more company up front, as Elizabeth Nicole and Leah’s Dream bring much more speed to the table. I’m still using her, but I think she’s somewhat vulnerable at a short price. I’m hoping that the pace really heats up, because the horse that interests me at a price is Criminal Mischief. This filly has run races that would make her competitive with this group, but she appeared to go off form when last seen at Churchill Downs. I wonder if they raced her a bit too aggressively, as she made 9 starts in the span of just 5 months through the first half of the year. Now she’s been given some time off, and I like that they’re still bringing her back in a protected spot, rather than dropping back in for a tag. Lukas has been connecting with some longshots at this meet, and this feels like one that will fly under the radar.
RACE 6: HOLIDAY BONUS (#1)
This is a fascinating allowance race, primarily because it once again pits Dr. Edgar and Harlan’s Hunch against each other. These two hooked up in a torrid duel at Belmont Park on July 11, blazing to the half-mile in a remarkable 44 2/5 seconds. Dr. Edgar easily put away his pace rival and somehow nearly hung on for the victory, losing by just a neck. It was an amazing effort for a horse who had never run nearly that well before. It’s definitely a possibility that he has simply improved now as a 5-year-old, but I want to see him reproduce that performance. Via Egnatia is an intriguing alternative as he makes his first start since December. They tried dirt with him on a couple of occasions, but he’s clearly a better turf horse. Those races he contested at Belmont last year have proven to be solid in retrospect, as both Funtastic and Classic Covey have gone on to do some nice things since then. The major issue with him is that he’s another who possesses early speed. The horse who interests me most is Holiday Bonus. Graham Motion had been intent on stretching this horse out in distance this year, and it hasn’t quite worked out. In each of his 2018 starts – all going 10 furlongs or farther – he reached a contending position in upper stretch but just could not carry that momentum to the wire. I believe he’s running like a horse who badly needs a turnback in distance, and he’s getting it here. I know it’s been a very long time since he’s won a race, but he’s actually been in decent form this year, and I think he lands in a favorable spot.
RACE 7: JODY’S SONG (#3)
Chad Brown has entered a formidable duo in this race, as she sends out likely favorite Myhartblongstodady and recent maiden winner Chestnut Street. Myhartblongstodady has to be considered the one to beat off her solid performance at this level last time. Jose Ortiz worked out a decent trip for her, but they did wind up far off the early pace. The leaders came back to them in the lane, but her late rush just failed to carry her past Giant Zinger at the wire. If she can build on that effort, she’s a likely winner of this race. Chestnut Street also lost a nose decision to Giant Zinger two back, and she returned most recently with an encouraging maiden score over another Chad Brown stablemate. This 4-year-old filly has needed a couple of starts to get into top form, but she appears to be capable of taking another step forward. I’m using both of them, but the most intriguing horse in this field is Jody’s Song. This daughter of Scat Daddy made her debut at Belmont nearly a year ago, and it is worth going back to watch that race, as she put forth a dazzling performance. Breaking from the outside post position, Joel Rosario always had a ton of horse underneath him. She ranged up menacingly approaching the quarter pole and opened up a daylight lead in the blink of an eye as soon as he pushed the button. The final winning margin was 3 lengths, but she was totally geared down for the final eighth of a mile, so she conceivably could have won by more than twice that margin had she been asked. She was reportedly kept off the track by a tendon injury, but her connections have given her plenty of time to recover. The fact that she was so sharp in her career debut gives me some hope that she will be ready to fire in her first start off the layoff.
RACE 9: EPPING FOREST (#12)
This is as wide-open a stakes race as you’ll find at this Saratoga meet. One of the issues in assessing the top contenders is that you probably don’t want to put too much stock in the Caress, run at the beginning of the meet. That turf course had taken a great deal of rain, and the race was run in truly boggy conditions. Some handled it, and some didn’t. Chanteline ran well that day, and her overall turf form is actually somewhat better than it appears. However, she was a big price last time, and she’s going to be much shorter today, mostly due to a fluky runner-up finish in the Caress. The horse you might want out of the Caress is Just Talkin, who got shuffled back early and was running on well late in a race where few others closed. The problem with her is that I don’t love her prior form. Morticia deserves respect once again after she nearly went off as the favorite in the Caress. She clearly didn’t handle the going, but she’s good enough to win this. Looking at TimeformUS Pace Ratings, an astonishing nine of the 12 fillies own early-pace ratings of 109 or higher – an indication that this pace could be extremely fast. In my opinion, the filly with the best late kick is Epping Forest, and she does indeed own the highest late-pace rating in the field. Some may view her as a Belmont specialist, but I think she’s simply stepped forward this year, and Joel Rosario rides her perfectly.
RACE 10: STRAITOUTA CONGTIN (#11)
I suppose Joe’s Smokin Gun is the horse to beat, but I’m always wary of runners that begin to pile up second-place finishes, and that is exactly what is happening with this gelding. He clearly fits well at this level and his speed figures suggest he’s the fastest horse in the race, but I do bet the sense that someone will beat him once again. I’m not enamored with any of the horses exiting the 10th race on July 29, which was won by Slewacandy in dominating fashion. As is often the case, that 9-length margin of victory probably says more about the quality of the runners finishing behind him than it does about the winner. Powerstroke appears to be heading in the wrong direction and American Ninja seemed to have trouble getting the distance. Neither one appeals to me greatly, so I want to look in another direction. Straitouta Congtin – despite having been burdened with a monstrosity of a name – actually has some ability, and is one of the few horses in this field that still has some upside. His debut was not nearly as bad as it seems, as he got off to a disastrous start. I thought his last performance was actually somewhat encouraging, as he broke much more professionally and appeared to have plenty of run coming around the far turn. He might have even finished closer at the end had he not gotten caught behind some tiring foes coming to the quarter pole. He strikes me as a horse that should appreciate some added ground, and his low-profile connections should ensure that he goes off at a square price.