by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona
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Race 1: 5 - 6 - 3 - 4
Race 2: 8 - 1 - 2B - 7
Race 3: 5 - 3 - 6 - 4
Race 4: 6 - 3 - 1 - 5
Race 5: 5 - 2 - 3 - 10
Race 6: 4 - 6 - 7 - 1
Race 7: 7 - 4 - 3 - 5
Race 8: 7 - 4 - 9 - 1
Race 9: 9 - 4 - 8 - 1
Race 10: 2 - 6 - 10 - 3
RACE 2: ROUGH SEA (#8)
Of the Chad Brown’s duo, I prefer Wage Acceleration as he drops out of his turf debut against a much tougher maiden special weight group. However, even though the entry contains the race’s most likely winner, this pair is likely to be overbet as a coupled unit. That’s why I want to take a shot against them with a longshot. Rough Sea has run well enough in his two starts on dirt, but he figures to take a significant step forward with this switch to grass. Include is not a great turf influence, but this horse has plenty of turf breeding on the dam’s side. His dam is a full sister to turf stakes winner Eh Cumpari, and a half-sister to turf graded stakes winner Ballagh Rocks. This seems like a savvy claim by Niall Saville, who has gelded this runner since his last start. I’ll use him with the aforementioned Chad Brown entry, as well as Electro, the half-brother to Lady Eli, who did not get a great trip in his debut in California, and could show more speed on the stretch-out.
RACE 4: CINDER (#6)
Truth in the Lies is probably going to be a heavy favorite in this race as she makes her first start off the claim by Jason Servis. While he has fantastic numbers with his turf claims overall, he is just 2 for 10 ($1.29 ROI) first off the claim with horses coming off layoffs of 60 to 120 days. She’s still the horse to beat, since she’s run some of the fastest races and is facing a softer field than the one she met last time. However, given the possibility of an underlay on the favorite, I want to try to beat her with Cinder. This filly never got a chance to run in her local debut, as Leparoux was unable to find a clear path coming to the top of the stretch. Cinder ended up getting steadied in traffic for much of the drive, and was eliminated from contention. I’m not sure where she might have finished with a clean run, but her prior races in Kentucky were okay, and I think she has a decent chance to pull off the minor upset.
RACE 5: SMARTY SMART (#5)
Twofer is the interesting first-time starter in this group. Rick Violette is one of the best trainers of debut runners in the game. Over the past five years, he is 16 for 57 (28 percent, $3.26 ROI) with 2-year-olds making their first start in a dirt sprint. This filly worked an impressive quarter mile in 21 2/5 seconds at the Fasig-Tipton sale in May, and figures to be quick out of the gate. She’s worth including in your plays, but I’m most interested in a horse with experience. The maiden race on Aug. 6 featured a very fast pace that was falling apart in the late stages. Whereas Quick Quick Quick took advantage of that strong early tempo, Smarty Smart was compromised by racing so close to the pace. After racing just behind the leaders down the backstretch, she made a strong four-wide bid on the turn, challenging for the top spot as they came into the stretch. She tired late, but had every right to do so after such a taxing trip. I think she’s going to take a step forward today and can win at a square price.
RACE 7: WANTAGH QUEEN (#7)
First Appeal is the horse to beat in this spot, but she’s a late-running sprinter that needs some pace ahead of her, and I’m not certain she’s going to get it in this spot. I’m trying to beat her with Wantagh Queen, who has run better than it appears in both of her local starts. She broke well on July 21, but was shuffled back in the opening furlong and forced into making a four-wide move around the far turn. All things considered, she finished well to just be beaten by a little over two lengths. Then last time she made a strong bid for the lead in the stretch after racing close to a fast pace, and just missed while facing a tougher field than this one. You can make an argument that she actually ran a better race than First Appeal that day, and I think she’s worth a shot at a much more attractive price.
RACE 9: PRETTY PERFECTION (#9)
Fair Point and Miss Ella finished first and second in this race last year, and again filled out the exacta in the Caress Stakes earlier in this meet. They are clearly the two most likely winners, but this is a pretty competitive race, and they will need some luck to come out on top again. Even though the early fractions didn’t appear to be that fast, the pace completely collapsed in the Caress, which was dominated by horses making outside moves. I believe the race flow significantly compromised Pretty Perfection, who found herself in a bad spot behind a tiring runner on the far turn and was steadied out of position on the rail. She eventually got through late, but the outside runners had already gained too much momentum and the race was over. She’s run some competitive races out of town and I like this rider switch to Robby Albarado, who has been riding exceptionally well with limited opportunities at this meet.