PICKS

Race 1:   10 - 2 - 4 - 9
Race 2:   1 - 4 - 3 - 5
Race 3:   2 - 3 - 4 - 1/1A
Race 4:   7 - 5 - 2 - 6
Race 5:   8 - 9 - 4 - 5
Race 6:   2 - 7 - 1 - 3
Race 7:   6 - 2 - 3 - 9
Race 8:   7 - 4 - 9 - 5
Race 9:   4 - 2 - 1 - 3
Race 10:   5 - 2 - 4 - 12

PLAYS

(Guide - WIN: recommended win/key horse at fair odds; UPGRADE: value horses I picked underneath to consider upgrading in vertical/horizontal wagers; USE: runners to include in vertical exotic wagers with Win horse)

RACE 1: FOREVER DIXIE (#10)

Among those with experience, Xigera (#2) is clearly the horse to beat. She got a 100 TimeformUS Speed Figure for her debut, which would be good enough to win most maiden races at this meet. She just had the misfortune of running into a pretty talented debut winner. Nevertheless, she showed good tactical speed and ran a professional race. She’s bred to be a nice turf horse as a half-sister to stakes winner Forty Under, and Phil Bauer is in the midst of a fantastic meet. I’m not against her, but I was interested in another experienced runner who could fly under the radar. Forever Dixie (#10) began her career on dirt and didn’t run that badly. However, she did appear to take a step forward on grass last time despite achieving another fifth-place result. She had to steady off heels moving into the clubhouse turn and then proceeded to race 2 to 3-wide throughout over a course that was favoring rail runners. She still looked a little ungainly in upper stretch, but was hitting her best stride late once Leparoux finally set her down. Now Mark Casse adds blinkers to a filly who has been a little green and makes a rider switch to Tyler Gaffalione. Casse is 23 for 129 (18%, $2.45 ROI) with maiden third time starters in turf routes over 5 years. As for firsters, instead of the Chad Brown pair, I would rather use Wand (#4) and Mademoisellejackie (#9), who have both worked well on grass.

WIN: #10 Forever Dixie, at 7-2 or greater
USE: 2,4,9

RACE 3: TWEAQUED (#2)

Abuse of Power (#3) is obviously the horse to beat as she seeks her second victory of the meet after winning on opening day. She was actually great value when paying $6.60 that day, as her form coming into that race was so far superior to the rest of the field. She was best that day, but I was impressed by the improved effort from runner-up Tweaqued (#2). Despite getting dismissed at 29-1 in her turf debut, she put in a strong run to get up for second while drawing well clear of the rest of the field. This filly clearly took a big step forward on the turf, yet her connections made the curious decision to switch back to dirt for her most recent start. She was claimed out of that race by Ray Handal, who does well off the claim. Yet I found a more meaningful stat for her former connections. Horses first off the claim away from Robert Ribaudo are 5 for 8 (63%, $14.56 ROI) over the past 5 years. That probably speaks to the sound condition of these horses when they leave the barn. Ray Handal has been having a strong year, and this 3-year-old filly simply has more upside than her main rival. The other runner that I would consider is Thismightbetheone (#4). She’s a cut below the top two from a form standpoint, but she did have significant trouble last time, steadied sharply on the backstretch while appearing to clip heels. She had run reasonably well in her prior start, and now gets a rider upgrade to Flavien Prat.

WIN: #2 Tweaqued, at 2-1 or greater
USE: 3,4

RACE 5: CALL ME HARRY (#8)

I’m not that interested in either Chad Brown entrant in this allowance race. Microphone (#4) figures to attract support again after having gone off at very short prices every start to date. He was a visually impressive debut winner this winter, but he’s been a bit of a disappointment since then, failing to really step forward against winner. He should appreciate stretching out after finding a sprint too short last time, but I still think he’s vulnerable as the favorite. I have even less interest in Brown’s other runner Devil’s Outlaw (#2), who had no major excuse when putting in a dull effort last time and has never been the most reliable win candidate. I actually think the horse to beat is Shawdyshawdyshawdy (#9). This 4-year-old has had more than his fair share of bad trips during his career, but he’s actually been in strong form ever since returning from a layoff this year. He lost all chance at the start when clipping heels out of the gate two back, and last time he was closing best of all late but had to go wide to launch his rally. I like the rider switch to Flavien Prat, but he’s probably going to be a shorter price this time now that his form is a bit more exposed. I don’t see that much pace in this race, so I’m interested in Call Me Harry (#8). Perhaps this horse is just a sprinter, but I can easily make excuses for his two prior route attempts. One of those came against much tougher stakes foes in his third career start, and he got a poor ride in a driving rainstorm in his race going two turns here last summer. He didn’t run well last time, but his prior two efforts at Monmouth were decent. Now he’s claimed by Joe Sharp, who takes the blinkers off for this stretch-out, likely in an attempt to get him to settle early. I like that he’s placed ambitiously and speed is dangerous going a mile on the inner.

WIN: #8 Call Me Harry, at 8-1 or greater
USE: 9

RACE 6: NURSEKRINGLEDANCES (#2)

With the scratch of High Class, the focus in this two-year-old maiden event shifts squarely to the first time starters. I suppose Love to Shop (#9) is one that merits consideration as she goes out for Todd Pletcher. It’s tough for me to decipher which Pletcher runner is better between her and also-eligible entrant Alpha Bella (#11). I liked the latter filly’s last gate workout quite a bit, but her prior drills were less than inspiring. I was more interested in some debut runners from lower profile connections. The Great Maybe (#1) makes sense as she debuts off a solid series of workouts for Cherie Devaux. She looked pretty quick at the OBS Sale earlier this year and is by an excellent debut sire. My top pick is Nursekringledances (#2). This $7,000 yearling purchase really doesn’t have much pedigree, by disappointing sire Klimt out of a dam who was best on turf. She has produced 6 winners from 7 foals to race, but none were of particularly high quality. I just like the way this filly has been working for her debut. She obviously possesses plenty of speed, as she’s broken sharply in her gate works. One of those was actually in company with Soledad (#3) for Bill Mott, who breaks just to her outside here. To my eye, Nursekringledances was going slightly better as they easily drew well clear of a Mark Hennig trainee. Recently, she appeared to work favorably with classy older horse Street Ready. Ian Wilkes isn’t known for debut success, except when his horses actually take money. Over the past 5 years, he’s 10 for 51 (20%, $2.13 ROI) with firsters that go off at 8-1 or less in maiden special weight dirt sprints. The other horse that I want to use somewhere is Quiescent (#7). Robert Ribaudo is another trainer that isn’t known for debut success, but he appears to have a small but talented group of 2-year-olds for Marc Keller this year. This daughter of good debut sire Nyquist is one of those. Her dam was a pretty talented dirt sprinter. She’s been training well, especially in her gate works, and interestingly attracts Flavien Prat for her debut.

WIN: #2 Nursekringledances, at 7-2 or greater
UPGRADE: #7 Quiescent, at 8-1 or greater

RACE 7: SUMMER AT THE SPA (#6)

Freedomofthepress (#2) has had legitimate excuses in her last couple of starts and just feels like the horse to beat as she drops in class out of starter allowance races. She got engaged in an extremely fast pace two back and actually did well to open up in mid-stretch before getting reeled in by the closers. Then last time she had some traffic issues in the opening furlong and found herself out of position early. I would expect her to be much more forwardly placed this time with a clean break, and the slight class relief should benefit her. I have no major knocks, but just didn’t feel the need to pick her at a relatively short price. Train to Artemus (#3) has obviously improved since getting back on turf this summer for Saffie Joseph. While she’s moving up to a tougher condition claiming level, I don’t think she’s catching the toughest field and her last race certainly gives her a shot. My top pick is Summer At the Spa (#6). She ran well to win her N2L condition back in May, albeit with a great ride and trip. However, she hasn’t been nearly as fortunate since then. She had to go very wide when launching a rally in that June 26 race at this level going 7 furlongs, which seems a bit far for her these days. Then last time she was facing a tougher field and actually closed well despite encountering traffic in the stretch. She just seems like a good fit at this level and is unlikely to be that short a price off her recent results. It also feels like there could be some pace in here to set up her late run.

WIN: #6 Summer At the Spa, at 7-2 or greater
USE: 2,3

RACE 9: LADY ROCKET (#4)

Ce Ce (#1) comes into this Grade 1 Ballerina as the reigning champion. However, that accolade was bestowed because she won the most important race, beating Gamine when it counted in the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint. While she’s run well since then, she isn’t exactly a dominant force among these female sprinters, entering this race with a set of performances that don’t exactly make her a standout. I think she’s vulnerable and want to take some shots against her. Obligatory (#2) has been in fantastic form this year. She got the right pace setup in the Derby City Distaff, but she produced a fantastic stretch run to rally past the entire field. I won’t hold her recent loss to Bella Sofia against her, since she was arguably best after racing behind a slow pace. I actually think she’s the horse to beat here, but I am a little concerned about a lack of pace. My top pick is Lady Rocket (#4). Some will view her as a one-hit wonder, as that 9-length romp in the Go For Wand stands out among her running lines. However, I think she’s run better than it appears in her three starts since then. That was particularly the case in the Madison when she got involved in a wicked pace that fell apart. She was dueling that day with Kimari, who since returned to beat Bella Sofia in the Honorable Miss with a career-best performance. I won’t hold Lady Rocket’s Ruffian against her, since that has proven to be a key race, with multiple horses improving their speed figures out of it. She beat a pair of nice mares at Churchill last time, and appears to be coming into this Grade 1 test in excellent form. Brad Cox is an amazing 25 for 58 (43%, $3.22 ROI) with last-out winners in Grade 1 dirt races over the past 5 years.

WIN: #4 Lady Rocket, at 3-1 or greater
USE: 2,3

RACE 10: BE THERE (#5)

Linda Rice holds a pretty strong hand in this maiden turf sprint finale. Java Buzz (#12) was somewhat disappointing as the 6-5 favorite last time, as he proved no match for impressive winner Sosua Summer without an apparent excuse. He did have some minor trouble two back, but he just feels like a horse whose best form is exposed at this point. He’s also now drawn in the outside post position, whereas Rice’s other runner Rocket’s Red Glare (#2) has gotten a much more favorable draw inside. This colt finished behind his stablemate in that Aug. 3 race, but he was just making his career debut. Linda Rice runners tend to do better with a start under their belts, and this guy ran like one that would benefit from a race, getting away slowly before racing a bit erratically. I expect a step forward, but I also think he could be favored here with Irad Ortiz retaining he mount. My top pick is Be There (#5). I know some may find it tough to take Nick Zito runners given his recent record, but he’s sent out a couple of horses who have run just fine at this meet. The horse showed improvement in the slop last time and is supposed to be even better on the turf. He's by a turf influence in Medaglia d’Oro and his dam was a Grade 3 winner on this surface. He also moves like a grass horse, so I’m convinced he’ll fare better on the turf. He’s getting a significant rider upgrade to Jose Lezcano for this race and is likely to be a square price in this highly competitive affair. I'm also afraid of first time starter Steady On (#4), who has trained well for his debut and goes out for a trainer who can win with these types.

WIN: #5 Be There, at 6-1 or greater
USE: 2,4