by David Aragona
Get the wagering strategy for this card in this year’s TimeformUS Saratoga Betting Strategies package, which includes PPs for each day of the meet, exclusive access to the daily Highlight Horse, multi-race ticket constructions, and additional analysis of every stakes race at the meet. More info ›
Race 1: 4 - 7 - 1 - 5
Race 2: 5 - 2 - 4 - 1
Race 3: 6 - 7 - 2 - 4
Race 4: 7 - 5 - 9 - 8
Race 5: 5 - 6 - 4 - 2
Race 6: 8 - 6 - 2 - 9
Race 7: 8 - 1 - 4 - 2
Race 8: 12 - 8 - 13 - 3
Race 9: 4 - 2 - 8 - 10
Race 10: 6 - 8 - 2 - 3
Race 11: 10 - 11 - 2 - 3
RACE 3: GOLD FOR THE KING (#6)
There are four main contenders in the John Morrissey Stakes, and they are very difficult to separate. The TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting that Eye Luv Lulu may have the upper hand in this field due to his early speed in a situation that is predicted to favor the front-runner. Eye Luv Lulu is always dangerous in these New York-bred stakes events, and he’s coming into this year’s Morrissey off an impressive set of speed figures. He ran extremely well to be second in the Affirmed Success last time, chasing a fast pace before getting run down by the classy Pat On the Back. I’m using him, but I prefer another in the top slot. My selection in this race is Gold for the King. This gelding was placed quite ambitiously off the layoff, tackling open-stakes foes, including Catalina Cruiser, in the Grade 2 True North. He actually ran a respectable race to finish a close sixth, but Gold for the King is the type of runner who almost always improves with a start under his belt following a layoff. We saw that most recently when he exploded with breakout wins on July 7 and Nov. 18 of last year. He lost at short prices a couple of times over this past winter, but you can make some excuses for those races. I like that he’s getting Joel Rosario back aboard, and he drew a much better post position when this race was redrawn. The other two runners to consider are Celtic Chaos and Build to Suit, but I’m somewhat concerned that both may be pace-compromised in this spot. Build to Suit has more tactical speed, but it’s hard to trust a horse who has made just one start since October 2017. Celtic Chaos always comes with that reliable late run, but he often has trouble finding the winner’s circle against stakes foes.
RACE 4: LIVIN AT THE BEACH (#7)
Chad Brown has entered two first time starters in this race and the that appears to be the most dangerous is Sketches of Spain. This filly is the first purchase from the 2018 Tattersalls sale that we’re seeing this summer at Saratoga. Chad Brown notably had fantastic success with his runners from the 2017 sale, which included Newspaperofrecord, Digital Age, and Demarchelier. This filly was purchased for about $554,000. Her dam was placed in Group 3 company on turf and the dam is notably a half-sister to Chriselliam, winner of the Grade 1 BC Juvenile Fillies turf, and Very Special, a multiple Group 2 winner on turf in Dubai. The latter runner is actually sired by Lope de Vega, who also sired this filly. It appears that she’s been working well for the debut and it would not be a major surprise if she’s ready to win first time out. Brown’s other filly also has a solid turf pedigree, but she hasn’t been that impressive in her works on dirt for this first start. Horses with experience are always dangerous in these two-turn 2-year-old maiden races, and there are a few of those in this spot. The one that I prefer is Livin At the Beach, who made her debut going 6 furlongs at Belmont in late June. That was an eventful race, though this filly was unaffected by an incident on the backstretch. She ran on evenly while unable to quicken with the leaders late. Yet what I like about her is her pedigree. She’s by Treasure Beach, a solid turf route influence, and she’s out of a dam who excelled in turf routes at distances ranging from a mile to 1 1/2 miles. Furthermore, this dam is a half-sister to Presious Passion, a multiple Grade 1-winning turf marathoner. She figures to benefit from that initial experience and the added ground.
RACE 5: SKY FULL OF STARS (#5)
Santa Monica appears to be getting back into top form after some minor disappointments at the start of the season. She lost the La Prevoyante and then barely won a desperate photo finish as the heavy favorite in the Orchid. Perhaps she just appreciated the soft going in the Sheepshead Bay last time, but she looked like her old self, winning in dominant fashion after taking over with an impressive burst at the head of the lane. She’s obviously a deserving favorite, but you have to be somewhat concerned about the lack of pace in this race. Gentle Ruler is Santa Monica’s main rival and she possesses the tactical speed to potentially get the jump on that foe. She’s seeking her fifth consecutive win and has clearly found her niche as a turf marathoner. However, she was not facing a competitor of Santa Monica’s quality in either of those recent stakes victories, and gets tested for class here. I don’t have a strong argument against either of these runners, but I nevertheless want to take a shot against them with Sky Full of Stars, who figures to be a much more enticing price. My feeling with this German-bred mare is that the connections are going to switch up the tactics this time. She was a front-runner in Germany, yet they’ve curiously ridden her as a closer in her two North American starts. Joel Rosario is an excellent judge of pace, and tabbing him as the pilot may indicate that she’s going to be more forwardly placed on this occasion. She likely needed that last start off the layoff as she was too keen rating behind horses. She showed that she has the class to compete at a high level in that Group 2 win last September, and she surely can get the distance.
RACE 7: ADONIS CREED (#8)
I acknowledge that Final Frontier will win this race if he runs back to his dazzling allowance score from last fall at Aqueduct. While he lost his return from the layoff as the favorite, he actually put in a solid effort that day. He had to deal with a pretty fast pace on the front end (note the red color-coded pace figures), and he held on well for third while just getting tired in the late stages. He figures to be fitter for this second start back, though it is a little curious that it’s taken his connections over 10 weeks to find another race for him. He was done few favors by the post position draw, since he’s stuck down inside in a race where Battle Station figures to be sent from an outside post. Final Frontier will win if he shows up, but I wouldn’t want to accept too short of a price given the circumstances. I’m taking a shot against him with Adonis Creed. This horse also put in a fantastic effort going 6 furlongs at Aqueduct last fall, easily overhauling a decent optional claiming field while showing improved early speed. Brad Cox and the connections got a little ambitious after that, running him in a pair of turf sprint stakes over the winter. He may have found the January race to be a little short for him, and then he had a valid excuse last time when blocked in traffic at multiple points over the final 4 furlongs. He’s returning for a barn that can win off layoffs, and I love that he’s getting Joel Rosario back aboard after he rode him so well last year.
RACE 8: SUMMER SQUEEZE (#12)
Chiclet’s Dream is a standout on paper, since nearly all of her recent speed figures are faster than those of her rivals. Yet she’s a favorite that’s difficult to fully trust after the antics that she displayed. She blew a clear lead in her first start up here last summer as she ducked in sharply during the final furlong. She behaved better throughout the rest of 2018, but she was bad to her old bad habits when she came back on May 24. She was difficult for Javier Castellano to handle throughout and caused herself a ton of problems on the far turn. It briefly appeared as if he she was going to be eased before she kicked it in late, running on well despite changing leads repeatedly during the stretch drive. If she runs a professional race, she’ll win, but that’s no guarantee. Given the uncertainty surround the favorite, I want to take a shot against her with Summer Squeeze. I like this filly stretching back out in distance. She was very impressive breaking her maiden going this far all the way back in April of 2018, but she’s gone shorter distances in most of her turf starts since then. She actually ran deceptively well two back on May 18 when she got involved in an unreasonably fast pace going a mile. The horse that she was dueling with, Dynamite Kitten, returned to win with an improved performance. The fact that Summer Squeeze came back to run as well as she did going 6 furlongs speaks to her current form, since today’s distance is more appropriate. She drew a tough post, but her improved tactical speed should allow her to work out a decent trip.
RACE 9: ROCKEMPEROR (#4)
The Belmont Derby is a fascinating race to analyze from a trip standpoint, since racing luck played a significant role in the outcome. Henley’s Joy may have been the best horse anyway, but he certainly got the best trip. Jose Lezcano orchestrated a beautiful journey for him, allow him to run freely away from the gate into a forward position before saving ground around both turns. To his credit, he unleashed an impressive burst of speed in the lane, which allowed him to get the jump on some closers who had to deal with traffic. He’s drawn the rail, right alongside Belmont Derby runner-up Social Paranoia, and both runners figure to work out favorable trips once again. I’m using them defensively, but neither one figures to offer value after you got inflated prices on them last time. I prefer the colt who finished just behind that pair in the Belmont Derby. Rockemperor may go off as the favorite despite losing that race, and he probably deserves the support following his admirable performance. Mired in the unenviable outside post position, John Velazquez had no choice but cut over and rate him at the back of the pack in order to save ground. He actually gave this horse a superb ride from there, only angling out in the final straightaway. Yet the horse did everything else, as he rocketed past all but two runners in the final quarter-mile and was getting to the winner late. This time, with a mid-field draw, Velazquez should have more options and I believe this horse can turn the tables on his Belmont Derby rivals with a decent trip. Furthermore, his recent workouts would appear to suggest that he’s improved since his last race, since he forced workmate and key rival Digital Age to come off the bridle in a couple of recent drills.
RACE 10: MISS PEPPINA (#6)
I respect both favorites in this race, but they each have to stretch out to 6 1/2 furlongs, which can be tricky for some of these lightly raced 2-year-old fillies. Magic Dance would appear to have the upper hand since she’s already successfully gone 6 furlongs, having done so in the Debutante last time. That win was fairly workmanlike, as she didn’t draw off as impressively as she had in her debut going 5 furlongs. This half-sister to multiple Grade 1 winner Guarana is supposed to have no trouble getting this distance, but you never known how they’re going to respond until they try it. She drew a great post outside of the other speeds, but that means she’ll likely have to run down her main rival Frank’s Rockette. She was quite impressive when scoring in her debut at Churchill Downs, drawing off with confident strides in deep stretch. Yet, it’s quite an ask for a filly to go from one 5-furlong race into a stakes going this distance. I’m using her, but I’m worried that she might be overbet in this spot. I think this race is open to more than just two contenders, so I’m taking a shot with Miss Peppina at a much better price. I’m not sure what she was facing in her debut, but she sure looked like a nice sprinter running down those rivals in the lane. She rated so beautifully for Joel Rosario in the early going, so one would imagine that her connections will employ the same tactics once again. Unlike the two aforementioned favorites, I have confidence that she’ll get the distance because she can rate and finish.