by David Aragona
Now Available: TimeformUS Saratoga PPs and Betting Strategies
Gain access to TimeformUS PPs for all 40 days of the Saratoga meet, plus betting strategies – recommended wagers for each of David Aragona's daily Top Plays, fully constructed multi-race tickets including daily Pick-4s and Pick-5s, and additional strategic information around playing every card. You will also receive exclusive access to David's Highlight Horses, as well as opinions on all stakes races. Learn more ›
Race 1: 1 - 5 - 6 - 3
Race 2: 7 - 11 - 6 - 12
Race 3: 1 - 6 - 2 - 5
Race 4: 8 - 3 - 6 - 9
Race 5: 5 - 3 - 2 - 7
Race 6: 4 - 7 - 13 - 2
Race 7: 6 - 2 - 8 - 7
Race 8: 4 - 5 - 6 - 8
Race 9: 3 - 5 - 2 - 1A
Race 10: 4 - 5 - 3 - 2
Race 11: 11 - 1 - 4 - 5
RACE 2: OKEAMO (#7)
I had been interested in Okeamo as a longshot when this race was going to be run on the turf. Now that it will be contested at 1 1/8 miles on the main track, I think Okeamo is simply the logical horse to beat. This colt seemed like a horse that didn’t really get over wet, sealed racetracks very well in his first couple of starts, and he put forth a vastly improved effort when able to run over a fast main track at Belmont last time. That was a pretty solid field – certainly tougher than what will be left in this race after scratches – and Okeamo arguably ran the second best race. The early pace of that race was pretty quick, and horses that were contesting the early lead completely fell apart. Just look at MTO entrant Panic Attack’s past performances to see the toll that the early pace took on the front-runners in that event. Okeamo was close up chasing that pace and he made an early move to the lead, essentially breaking open the race on the far turn. I thought he battled on valiantly to nearly hold on for second behind the runaway winner. The stretch-out to 9 furlongs around two turns is an unknown, but it is for all in this race. At least Okeamo showed some real stamina in his last start, and I think he’s far and away the most likely winner of this dirt race off the heels of that performance.
RACE 4: KARMA DELIGHT (#8)
There is a serious lack of pace in this race, which could compromise a few of the likely short prices. Win With Pride is probably the class of the field after facing tougher fields on dirt at Churchill Downs. While he’s not a deep closer, he usually needs some pace up front to fire his best shot. I won’t hold his turf race against him last time and I do think he’s the horse to beat. Top of the Page also makes some sense on the turnback in distance. Nine furlongs was probably a bit too far for him last time, and he has run very well around one turn in the past. However, this horse is almost certainly going to get outrun in the early stages going this shorter distance, which could hurt his chances. I’m interested in the two outside runners. The Pace Projector is predicting that Rockford will be in front in a situation favoring horses on or near the lead. While he does figure to show speed, I find him somewhat hard to take off his current form. Instead, I want to bet Karma Delight. The Pace Projector has him placed just off Rockford in the early going, and he is one of the few horses in this race that has responded well to aggressive rides in the past. His first couple of starts for the John Toscano, Jr. barn were disappointing, but I thought he got back on track last time. The pace of that race was fairly slow and he found himself too far back after a flat-footed start. Karma Delight was the only horse that making up a significant amount of ground late, and I think he can step forward off that performance. Ricardo Santana, Jr. should have him in the right spot.
RACE 5: TOMBELAINE (#5)
Disco Partner is clearly the horse to beat as he turns back to a sprint distance. However, while the trip suits him this time, it’s unclear if he’ll get his preferred rock-hard turf course, as plenty of rain predicted for Friday and Saturday could leave the courses less than firm. While he won the Jaipur two back, I’m not totally sure that he’s quite as dominant this year as he was at this time last year. He’s the most likely winner of this race, but I’m not going to be shocked if one of his rivals is able to post the upset. His main rival may be Sandy’z Slew, who appears to be back in top form at age 8. This gelding’s last three efforts in New York have been stellar, resulting in dominant victories against optional claiming company. He’s been in for the tag all three times, and now he steps up into stakes company. The TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring horses on or near the lead, so his ample early speed makes him very dangerous in this spot. I’m certainly using him, but he does get a significant class test in this spot. Holding Gold is another alternative to the favorite, but he just always seems to find trouble. If he ever works out the right trip, he’s talented enough to win a race like this, but I don’t know that it will be today. I’m taking a shot with Tombelaine. I’m not concerned about some give in the ground, since he’s handled it well in his few starts over less-than-firm courses in the U.S. and he handled heavy ground over in Europe. Tombelaine has really improved since getting turned all the way back in distance. He ran deceptively well in the Gulfstream Park Turf Sprint over the winter, and his two recent efforts in New York have been excellent. He moved too soon two back against top rivals Voodoo Song and American Guru, and he showed uncharacteristic early speed last time when defeating the top class runner White Flag. If Robertino Diodoro can get him to run back to that effort and show speed again, I think he’s dangerous here.
RACE 8: MR MAYBE (#4)
This race is dominated by class droppers, and none of them are particularly easy to trust. Decisive Triumph arguably comes into this race with the strongest recent form, but I really think this plodder is best going 1 1/2 miles around three turns. This race may be too quickly run for him, though I do think you have to use him. Roman Approval would be pretty formidable here if you knew he was going to run back to his effort at Belmont in April. However, his two performances out of town have been disappointing, and now his connections are basically giving him away. He can win, but I can’t bet him. I think this is a spot where you want to get a bit more creative, so I’m taking a shot with Mr. Maybe. I know that this runner has also seen better days, but I like that he’s finally putting a string of races together without layoffs. It seems like the John Toscano barn had trouble figuring him out after claiming him last year, but he appears to be rounding into form this summer. I thought he ran find at this level two back while chasing a slow pace that held together. I know he got a favorable setup last time, but I think it’s meaningful that he nevertheless ran so well going 1 1/16 miles, which is usually too short for him. Now he’s stretching out to a more appropriate distance and I just get the feeling that he’s doing well heading into this whereas others possible are not.
RACE 9: UNCLE GIO (#3)
The entry is likely to go favored here, but I’ve seen enough of the stronger half, Gaugin. This runner has lost by narrow margins at short prices in a series of recent starts and, while he is the horse to beat, I think it’s worth trying to beat him. I thought today’s rival Im the Captain Now actually ran a bit better in that race, making a wide move from the back of the pack. Im the Captain Now also handles this distance, and I think he’s a legitimate foe. However, my top selection is Uncle Gio, who should go off at a slightly better price. This gelding can be very tricky to ride, as he often gets rank early in his races and can prove troublesome for his riders. However, the good news is that John Velazquez, who knows him better than any other jockey, is aboard, and he’s finally drawn an inside post position. The worst thing for a horse that gets rank is drawing outside slots, and Uncle Gio has drawn outside in each of his last 3 starts. If John Velazquez can get him covered up and settled in the early going, I’m confident that he can overtake this group in the lane. I do find it somewhat interesting that Michelle Nevin has added blinkers for this race, as those can tend to make a horse even more keen. However, she knows what she’s doing so I’m going to assume that there’s a plan here. I have no problem with the stretch-out to 1 3/8 miles for this horse, as he’s run well going longer in the past.
RACE 10: KURILOV (#4)
My main opinion in this Alydar is that I want to play against the likely favorite Timeline. I know this horse has run the fastest recent dirt races, but he’s just been a little disappointing in all of his 2018 efforts, as he’s been heavily favored each time. He got the job done over Tapwrit and others two back, but he got an absolutely perfect trip that day, as he got to sit off a contested early pace. This time, he should find himself chasing Outplay, and I just doubt that he possesses the stamina to see out the nine furlongs given that kind of trip. I prefer the two runners to the outside. I’m not quite sure what to make of Patch’s four-year-old form, as I don’t think his return race was quite as strong as the speed figure suggests it was. On the other hand, he did run well within the context of that race, overcoming a moderate pace to get up. We saw multiple horses not show up in the Stephen Foster, so I can forgive that performance. I still doubt his overall talent, but I think he’ll be in the mix. I’m taking a shot with Kurilov, who probably deserves another chance on dirt in this country. His first two starts at Aqueduct last year were actually pretty solid, and I think the commitment to making him into a turf horse was a little premature, even though he ran well in the Gulfstream Park Turf. His best races in Chile came on dirt, and he clearly wants to run all day. At anything around his morning line price of 3-1, I think he’s a decent bet here.