PICKS

Race 1:   2 - 6 - 5 - 1A
Race 2:   5 - 4 - 2 - 6
Race 3:   4 - 2 - 6 - 3
Race 4:   8 - 7 - 5 - 2
Race 5:   1 - 7 - 2 - 4
Race 6:   4 - 9 - 5 - 10
Race 7:   9 - 8 - 11 - 1
Race 8:   3 - 1 - 11 - 8
Race 9:   5 - 1A - 3 - 6
Race 10:   3 - 4 - 2 - 6
Race 11:   2 - 7 - 8 - 1

TOP PLAYS

RACE 2: GOLDEN ORB (#5)
This looks like the kind of Saratoga maiden race that could produce some stakes runners down the line. The fillies with experience have to be mentioned first, and they’re led by Wild and Funny, who was a strong second to Schuylerville winner Dream It Is in her debut and figures to handle this switch to turf given her pedigree. I’ll certainly be using her, but my top pick is first-time starter Golden Orb. Christophe Clement just has fantastic statistics with his 2-year-old debut runners on turf at the Spa. Over the past five years, he is 6 for 17 (35 percent, $5.10 ROI) in those situations. Drilling down into that sample, he is 3 for 10 in turf routes, and six finished in the money. He is a half-brother to a five-time turf winner as well as multiple dirt stakes winner Finley’sluckycharm. Orb has had success with his turf runners, and this horse worked a furlong in 10 1/5 seconds at the sale this year.

RACE 3: CONQUEST WINDYCITY (#4)
This race is full of horses whom I don’t fully trust. Red Rifle has run some strong dirt races and will get the distance, but he hasn’t won since the summer of 2015. Mohaymen has been off form, Breaking Lucky can be unreliable, and I’m not sold on Rally Cry getting the distance. I want a new face, which is why I’ve gone to Conquest Windycity. He’s been a new horse since returning for Brendan Walsh this year. He ran well at Keeneland three back before finishing a decent third in the Pimlico Special. I know his last race looks disappointing, but that was a spot where no one closed. In fact, he finished just behind fellow late runner Hawaakom, who had previously run much faster speed figures. He’ll get the distance, and he can race relatively close to a slow pace.

RACE 4: MILLIES PARTY BOY (#8)
The horses to beat here are Appealing Briefs and Hoboe, who both ran well in one of the toughest New York-bred maiden special weight races we’ve seen all year in New York. I’ll use them strongly on top, but the runner I’m most interested in is Millies Party Boy. I will preface this opinion by saying that he is not a probable winner of this race. Rather, he’s going to be a massive overlay whom I want to highlight as a runner to key underneath in trifectas. Millies Party Boy ran extremely well in his debut last fall at Belmont, making a premature run to the lead before hanging on gamely in the late stages. He was facing a pretty good field when he returned at Monmouth last time and was ridden like that race was merely a prep for this. Now he’s back in against New York-breds, and I think he can make some noise here at a huge price.

RACE 8: ODE TO THE HUNT (#3)
This is not the strongest New York-bred N1X allowance race. Storm Prophet is probably going to go favored after nearly getting the job done at this level last time. However, he got a very favorable pace setup that day and simply got run down late. I would prefer Nutzforboltz, but you have to wonder where he’s been for the past 2 1/2 months after a strong second-place finish at this level last time. Therefore, I’m taking a shot with Ode to the Hunt. I know he’s not exactly a winning type of horse, but he was facing stronger fields in almost all of his turf starts last season. He was prone to wide draws and wide trips in many of those starts. Now he finally draws a decent post position and gets Jose Ortiz. Perhaps he’ll be able to show up with a solid effort in his first start as a gelding.

RACE 9: STORMY’S SONG (#5)
Libby’s Tail can win this race if she gets back to her 2-year-old efforts, which include a strong second-place finish in the Grade 1 Frizette. However, Rudy Rodriguez’s numbers in this situation give some cause for pause. Over the past five years, he is 6 for 36 (17 percent, $0.81 ROI) with runners returning from layoffs of 120 to 240 days in dirt sprints. I’m going to try to beat her with Stormy’s Song. I think this filly is pretty talented, and I love that she’s turning back to a sprint. She ran very well in her debut for Brian Lynch, beating a solid field after setting a fast early pace (indicated by red color-coding in the PPs). She just didn’t want to go a mile last time, and now she’s back in the right spot. I like that she’s drawn outside of her main pace rivals, Bow Town Cat and Royal Inheritance.