PICKS

Race 1:   7 - 8 - 1 - 3
Race 2:   2 - 3 - 4 - 1
Race 3:   2 - 5 - 7 - 3
Race 4:   4 - 2 - 1 - 5
Race 5:   4 - 8 - 6 - 7
Race 6:   1 - 9 - 10 - 7
Race 7:   2 - 3 - 5 - 1
Race 8:   4 - 5 - 8 - 1
Race 9:   8 - 1 - 6 - 5
Race 10:   11 - 3 - 1 - 10

PLAYS

(Guide - WIN: recommended win/key horse at fair odds; UPGRADE: value horses I picked underneath to consider upgrading in vertical/horizontal wagers; USE: runners to include in vertical exotic wagers with Win horse)

RACE 2: CONVERTIBLE FREEZE (#2)

I’m a little skeptical of both Mike Maker dropdowns in this conditioned claimer. They’re each making their first starts off the claim for this barn, exiting the same race on June 26 at Churchill. Maker is just 14 for 93 ($1.13 ROI) first off the claim in dirt routes, and he’s 1 for 13 (8%, $0.34 ROI) first off the claim while dropping in claiming price by 50% or more over the past 5 years. #3 Blue Jays looks like the stronger runner for this barn off his prior form, but he’s been in the barns of some sharp trainers in the past, so I’m not sure this is much of an upgrade. He also seems like one that may prefer more ground than he gets here. The opposite could be true for #1 Critical Threat, who ran poorly in that June 26 event. Though he's won going a mile before, I think he’s better off over slightly shorter trips. I want to find an alternative and I think there are a couple of 3-year-olds worth considering. #4 Good Skate is the more logical one off his winter form. He was clearly on a hot streak for Rudy Rodriguez at Aqueduct, but he’s tailed off a bit since then while trying some tougher company. This drop in class makes sense, but the Rodriguez barn has been pretty cold in recent months. I’m going for a bigger price with #2 Convertible Freeze for my top pick. I know he’s a little slow on speed figures coming into this, but he was in solid form over the winter before getting some time off. His return last time isn’t as bad as it seems, since he was off slowly and made an early, wide move before fading. Now he’s with Mertkan Kantarmaci, who is 35 for 148 (24%, $2.31 ROI) first off the claim on dirt at NYRA over the past 5 years, and 6 for 24 (25%, $2.89 ROI) at Saratoga within that sample. He may not have to improve as much as it appears at first glance if I’m right about the favorites.

WIN: #2 Convertible Freeze, at 6-1 or greater

RACE 4: SABRA TUFF (#4)

Likely favorite #2 Naughty Gal seemingly needed her debut, in which she raced a bit greenly. This daughter of Into Mischief took a big step forward second time out, showing improved early speed before drawing off to an impressive 9-length victory. The time she ran matched the Debutante on the same card, and she earned a nice figure. A repeat of that performance will make her awfully tough, and she’s looked strong in her recent training. This early-developing type appears to have a size advantage over her competition at this stage. She picks up Luis Saez and goes out for a barn that knows how to win 2-year-old stakes at the Spa. She might have a bit of speed to deal with on the front end since debut winners #1 Apple Picker and #3 Promise of Hope both want to be forward as well. I’m taking a shot against the favorite with #4 Sabra Tuff. This filly showed some real tenacity in her debut, rushing up to take the lead after a slow start and fending of multiple challenges through the stretch. The runner-up returned to win her next start, improving her TimeformUS Speed Figure by 10 points. She moved up to stakes company in her second start at Churchill and used completely different tactics, rating in last early before slicing through the pack to run up into second through the stretch. She obviously has to get a little faster, but I like the versatility and willingness that this filly has displayed. It doesn’t hurt that she gets a rider upgrade to Irad Ortiz and lands in a spot where her experience should serve her well.

WIN: #4 Sabra Tuff, at 5-2 or greater

RACE 5: RAGING SEA (#4)

There are a few runners with experience in this field, but I can’t say that I’m thrilled with any of them. #6 Bisset could take money for Todd Pletcher, but the optics of her debut at Monmouth did very little for me. #1 Just An Angel is a little more interesting as she makes her second start for Steve Asmussen. She strikes me as one who should appreciate more ground, but she does have to get faster. First time starters could rule this race, as there are a few who may have some ability. I expect #8 Peace Cruiser to take money. Bill Mott doesn’t have the strongest stats with 2-year-olds debuting on dirt at Saratoga, but this filly has been working well. She’s by excellent debut influence Violence and there’s some class in the second generation of this family. She looked best in both workout videos I saw, including an impressive gate drill on July 22. I’ll use her, but I’m slightly more interested in #4 Raging Sea at what I’m hoping is a better price. Chad Brown is another who doesn’t have the best statistics with these types of runners. However, this filly strikes me as one with talent who almost certainly wants to go route distances, so debuting at 7 furlongs makes sense. She’s a daughter of Curlin who is a half-sister to solid allowance type Weather Wiz from a strong female family. Her workouts may look slow on the clock, but she’s been traveling well within herself in those recent drills, galloping out strongly. I expect her to be charging late, at the very least.

WIN: #4 Raging Sea, at 3-1 or greater
USE: 8

RACE 6: EMPRESS ISABEL (#1)

#9 Delight is the horse to beat as she stretches out while returning from a brief layoff for Jonathan Thomas. She made her career debut all the way back in April at Keeneland and put in a pretty encouraging effort. She had some trouble at the start and found herself at the back of the pack, but was absolutely flying in the second half of the race to just miss getting up for second. The distance is not supposed to be an issue given her pedigree. Jonathan Thomas has excellent numbers with second time starters overall, and is 4 for 8 (50%, $2.55 ROI) with maiden second time starters going from sprints to turf routes over 5 years. She’s logical, though I was most interested in another second time starter. #1 Empress Isabelwas never a serious threat in her debut, but I thought she did some running in places. She was off with the field but lacked speed heading down the backstretch. I thought she was traveling well at the quarter pole and stayed on mildly while not abused late. She’s supposed to appreciate the switch to turf, as her dam won and was G3-placed on grass. Ken McPeek generally does well with stretch-outs and she figures to go off at a square price with Dylan Davis riding. As for the first time starters, none were particularly appealing to me. I like the pedigree on #10 La Mazel, and her workouts have been decent, though she feels like one that could need a start.

WIN: #1 Empress Isabel, at 5-1 or greater
USE: 9,10

RACE 9: ASSERTIVE STYLE (#8)

Two of the likely favorites in this spot exit the Perfect Sting last month at Belmont. #5 Jouster won that day, getting a pretty good trip. She’s steadily been rounding back into top form since tailing off in the second half of her 3-year-old season. However, now she’s stretching back out around two turns and I think last time was the time to have her. I actually prefer #1 Love and Thunder out of that Perfect Sting, since she made an early move into contention on the far turn before flattening out. Trakus caught her running that third quarter in 22.25 seconds, so it’s understandable that she had little left for the stretch. However, she’s just not a reliable win candidate, having settled for too many minor awards in the past, so I have trouble picking her on top. #6 Our Flash Drive also makes sense as she ships in from Canada. It appears that she has really improved as a 4-year-old and figures to sit a good stalking trip. Yet I want to get a little more creative with my top selection. #8 Assertive Style has never won on the turf, but she has run well on this surface the last couple of times that she’s tried it. It also seems like she’s subtly improved since the claim by Tom Morley. She achieved a graded stakes placing behind two talented rivals in the Vagrancy two back. And she actually ran deceptively well in the Intercontinental last time, having to alter course in the stretch before hitting her best stride too late. Now she stretches out, but she’s successfully routed on the dirt in the past so stamina shouldn’t be an issue. She could also potentially be the speed in a race that doesn't feature a clear front-runner, and Javier Castellano is making all the right moves currently.

WIN: #8 Assertive Style, at 8-1 or greater

RACE 10: CASH IN A FLASH (#11)

I want to take a stand against #10 Merci, who could take some money in this spot. Bettors typically go for dropdowns like this colt, but I question his overall ability. He was just picking up pieces in a race that fell apart two back at Keeneland, and last time he had no punch through the stretch. Christophe Clement is 4 for 36 (11%, $0.72 ROI) with non-maidens making their first start for a tag on turf over the past 5 years. #1 Digital Software is another who could attract some support for popular connections. He’s just never really stepped forward since his 3-year-old season and has had trouble staying on the track. I didn’t think he had an excuse at this level last time and thought others were more interesting. #3 Bless Bless makes sense as he goes out first off the claim for Mike Maker. He was a little too wide last time when left with too much ground to make up in the lane. It did feel like he was on an upward trajectory for Michelle Nevin and I won’t be surprised when he takes a step forward for the new barn. I’m going in a different direction with #11 Cash in a Flash. This 4-year-old has earned competitive speed figures on synthetic, and he’s supposed to be able to transfer that form to turf given his pedigree. The dam was a Grade 1 winner on synthetic, and her foals have generally excelled on that surface, though she has produced two turf winners. I expect him to get an aggressive ride from this outside post position in a race that features a murky pace scenario.

WIN: #11 Cash in a Flash, at 4-1 or greater
USE: 3