by David Aragona
Get the wagering strategy for this card in this year’s TimeformUS Saratoga Betting Strategies package, which includes PPs for each day of the meet, exclusive access to the daily Highlight Horse, multi-race ticket constructions, and additional analysis of every stakes race at the meet. More info ›
Race 1: 7 - 9 - 10 - 4
Race 2: 3 - 6 - 2 - 7
Race 3: 2 - 4 - 3 - 8
Race 4: 8 - 3 - 7 - 4
Race 5: 8 - 10 - 5 - 11
Race 6: 2 - 4 - 5 - 1/1A
Race 7: 8 - 1 - 4 - 6
Race 8: 8 - 11 - 5 - 9
Race 9: 8 - 4 - 6 - 2
Race 10: 8 - 3 - 7 - 4
RACE 1: MISS MARISSA (#7)
None of the first-time starters in this race hails from a barn known for winning with debuting runners, so those with experience figure to attract support. The likely favorite is Sweet Melania, who makes her first turf start for Todd Pletcher. This expensive yearling purchase has hardly been disgraced in her first two dirt starts, but she did lose at short prices on both occasions. She was beaten by a couple of good ones in her Belmont debut and did run faster last time at Monmouth, albeit against a weaker field. Turf may be the answer since her dam was a Grade 2-placed turf runner, and a few foals from American Pharoah’s first crop already have handled the turf. Notably, Pletcher is 8 for 24 (33 percent, $2.96 ROI) with 2-year-old maidens stretching out from dirt sprints to turf routes over the past five years. I’m using her prominently, but I actually prefer another runner switching to turf for the first time who figures to be a better price. Miss Marissa took some money in her debut and stayed on gamely in a depleted off-the-turf affair. That 75 TimeformUS Speed Figure is respectable, but she will likely have to do better to beat this field. Her sire, He's Had Enough, wins with 8 percent of his turf starters overall, but there is significant grass pedigree on the dam’s side. Her 1-for-7 dam earned her only victory going 10 furlongs on turf, and she has produced one turf winner. Her second dam, Inish Glora, was a two-time turf champion in Canada who earned nearly $1 million, making this filly’s dam a half-sister to Woodbine Oaks winner Roan Inish. This gray filly displayed a turfy action in that first start, so she should improve on this surface.
RACE 3: WILD BOAR (#2)
Crack Shot is a deserving favorite as he makes his second start off the layoff and his second career turf start. He surprised many at 25-1 last time, but his improvement on the surface switch should not have come as a huge shock since he certainly had enough pedigree to handle grass. He figures to show speed again, and he’s obviously a major threat to wire this field. However, those of us who got him at a big number in that last race have to swallow a fraction of that price this time, and I rarely like to continue supporting horses under those circumstances. There are some viable alternatives, including a couple of first-time turfers. The runner making the surface switch who may attract the most support is Risp. This horse was highly touted in his debut at Saratoga last summer and ran a winning race, losing only due to his own greenness. However, it took him a long time to get back to the races after that, and he was a massive disappointment upon returning at Belmont last time. While progeny of Violence have handled turf, there is not a ton of pedigree for this surface on his dam’s side. I’ll use him defensively, but I’m more interested in Wild Boar, who is getting on grass for the first time. This horse is by the good turf influence Tale of the Cat and out of a dam who was clearly best racing on grass. This colt showed some ability on dirt last year, closing well in his first couple of starts before failing to handle the stretch-out. He’s returning from a lengthy layoff, but I think he’s spotted well. Over the past five years, John Kimmel is 5 for 25 (20 percent, $6.64 ROI) with maidens switching to turf for the first time. The other horse that I want to throw into the mix is Wild William. I know he’s a bit cheaper than some of these, but he ran deceptively well in his return after chasing a fast pace and may just be an improved horse for the Bond barn.
RACE 6: CHEATHAM HILL (#2)
The two fillies likely to attract the most support in this spot are the lightly raced pair of Fetching and Flush. Fetching may go off as the favorite in this spot as she stretches out to 1 1/8 miles, which should be to her liking. She has a pedigree to stretch out, and she has the physical makeup of a runner who should appreciate added ground. She got a fast pace to close into in her debut, but that was not the case last time as she was just one-paced while altering course through the lane. Flush finished 3/4-length ahead of her that day, but she got a very good trip setting a moderate pace. She looked like a potential winner coming to mid-stretch before Dynamite Kitten ran her down. I think both of these fillies must be used, but they don’t have any kind of significant edge over this field. The entry also makes some sense, as both Barrel of Destiny and Lady Love are legitimate contenders. However, both lack the upside of the two aforementioned fillies. I’ll use them all, but I want to go with a new face. My top pick is Cheatham Hill, who gets on turf for the first time. At first glance, this seems like a curious move. She’s by Bellamy Road out of a Sweetsouthernsaint dam – not exactly turf pedigree. Yet this dam has produced one runner of note, and that was Vip Nation, who also took to turf in somewhat surprising fashion, winning two races at big prices on that surface. Watching Cheatam Hill’s races, she flashed some ability over the winter and she has a stride on her that is reminiscent of the way her half-sister moves. It’s notable that Jason Servis is switching her immediately to turf off the layoff since it’s not as if these spots come up easier than the comparable dirt races. Over the past 5 years, he is 6 for 25 (24 percent, $2.29 ROI) with horses trying turf for the first time in routes, so he can win with these types. She figures to get a good trip from the rail, and she’ll be a price.
RACE 7: BINKSTER (#8)
This is a wide-open race in which it’s hard to even pinpoint the favorite. I suppose Cerretalto is the horse to beat off his form from last year. He ran very well to win at this level in November 2018, his second time doing so. H. James Bond doesn’t have the strongest numbers off long layoffs, but he can certainly have one ready to go, especially at this meet. I’m using him prominently, but he’s not the type that I want to rely on at a short price. The Pace Projector is predicting that this race will favor runners on or near the lead with Sudden Surprise expected to set the pace. This horse certainly knows how to win races, having crossed the wire first 12 times, including a few at today’s class level. However, his most recent start at Finger Lakes was fairly poor and he must rebound. If he gets to a clearly early lead, he’ll be tough to beat, but I think Binkster may have something to say about it. This horse has the speed to keep Sudden Surprise honest on the front end and I don’t think his last two efforts are quite as poor as they seem. He was dueling for the lead going 7 furlongs two back, and that distance is just a bit too far for him. Then last time, he had to chase outside over a rail-biased surface in a spot where the top two finishers rode the rail throughout. Binkster is dangerous with the early lead, but he’s perfectly capable of stalking outside another runner under the right circumstances. We’ve seen him come up with big efforts in the past, and I’m hoping he has another good one in him in this spot.
RACE 9: MY GALINA (#8)
The filly likely to go off as the favorite in this Coronation Cup is Break Even. She’s obviously the most talented runner in this field, but I can’t quite figure out why she’s running here. Based on her dirt performances, she’s talented enough to compete in Grade 1 races like the Test and Prioress. So, why is she running in this $100K turf stakes? For what it’s worth, Brad Cox has had success with this move. Over the past five years, he is 3 for 6 (50 percent, $4.36 ROI) with horses trying turf for the first time in stakes company. I’m using her defensively, but I can’t bet horses like this at short prices. In situations like this, I would rather go with the proven turf horses. In my opinion, the best of those is My Galina. I was highly impressed by this filly’s debut performance back in April, when she gamely fended off the heavy favorite, Bye Bye Nicky, to win after dueling on the lead the entire way. Then last time, she was ambitiously stepped up to Grade 3 company and set an honest pace before fading. That seven-furlong distance may have been too far for her, and I like this cutback to 5 1/2 furlongs. She’s drawn well, outside of the other speeds, so Javier Castellano should be able to work out a stalking trip this time. The other horse that I want to include, mostly underneath, is Eyeinthesky. This filly will appreciate some pace up front, which should materialize, and her rider Joel Rosario does an excellent job with late runners in turf sprints like this. She should outrun her odds.