PICKS

Race 1:   2 - 3 - 4 - 6
Race 2:   4 - 7 - 3 - 2
Race 3:   9 - 8
Race 4:   6 - 4 - 1 - 3
Race 5:   6 - 9 - 4 - 7
Race 6:   2 - 6 - 1 - 7
Race 7:   4 - 1 - 6 - 2
Race 8:   4 - 3 - 2 - 5
Race 9:   11 - 7 - 9 - 2
Race 10:   5 - 4 - 1 - 10

FAIR VALUE PLAYS

(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)

RACE 1

Speakinofthedevil (#3) figures to be a heavy favorite as he drops down in class to compete for this $25k tag. He did compete for a tag once before when offered for $100k in May. He disappointed that afternoon, but didn’t get an ideal trip. He bounced back two weeks later with an impressive victory at Indiana, where he earned a 106 TimeformUS Figure. That number makes him the horse to beat here, and now he’s making his first dirt start against winners. He’s the most likely winner, but he figures to take a ton of money for popular connections with Irad Ortiz aboard. The one alternative that I prefer at a better price is Fight Fiercely (#2). This horse completely failed to show up last time at Ellis, where he was legitimately eased in the stretch. That was a race where some horses just didn’t seem to show up, as today’s rival Giroovin also threw in a clunker that day. He’s now taking a huge drop in class, but I don’t think the drop is quite as significant as it is for Giroovin. This horse was claimed for just $30k two back, and they got a little ambitious moving him up the class ladder last time. Now he’s back in a realistic spot, and I like the turnback in distance for him. Over 5 years, Joe Sharp is 5 for 14 (36%, $2.59 ROI) second off the claim with horses dropping in claiming price by 50% or more. I thought he worked pretty well in company with Briterdayzahead on July 9, and that one is entered in the stakes today.

Fair Value:
#2 FIGHT FIERCELY, at 5-2 or greater

RACE 2

The form in this $25k claimer isn’t that compelling, so I didn’t want to take too short a price on anyone. Perhaps Jolly Miss Jill (#3) will become yet another winner for Linda Rice and Jose Ortiz, who have seemed unstoppable over the past few months and have carried that momentum into Saratoga. Rice does have good statistics with stretch-outs on the dirt, and she’s getting some class relief after facing when involved in a pace going shorter. I won’t be surprised when she runs well, but I didn’t really want to take her a the favorite. Yogi (#7) ran pretty well at this level back in May, since she was involved in a solid pace and held on gamely for second. She’s also proven at the distance. Susie’s Saver (#2) exits that same race, and was running on belatedly. I would have liked to see a little more out of her, and it does seem as if she’s slightly better on the turf. That said, it’s notable that Flavien Prat takes the mount for these low-profile connections. My top pick is Bravo Regina (#4), who figures to be the biggest price of those I’m considering. It’s a little tough to endorse a runner who is 1 for 31 in her career, but the truth of her is that she spent a lot of time running as a longshot in allowance races where she was badly overmatched. She dropped into these conditioned claimers over the winter at Aqueduct, and gradually improved. I thought she closed decently for second behind the improving Amanda’s Folly when last seen. Since then she’s been off for a few months, but now returns on a slight class rise for a barn that has been dangerous in recent months, especially with their runners up north at Parx.

Fair Value:
#4 BRAVO REGINA, at 9-2 or greater

RACE 7

Morning-line favorite Film Star (#6) hasn’t won since getting claimed by Linda Rice, but he’s run well in each of those runner-up efforts for this barn. He showed talent when registering a 113 TimeformUS Speed Figure for Brad Cox at Keeneland and has since proven that number is no fluke. He narrowly lost an off-the-turf race in May that came up pretty fast, and then earned a solid 110 Timeform Figure at this level last time. This time he figures to get things his own way up front without much other speed in this field. He’s been successful using front-running tactics before, and he has to be considered the horse to beat in his current form. Yet all of that is pretty obvious, and he’s going be a pretty short price going out for the Linda Rice and Jose Ortiz juggernaut. A few of these exit a June 10 race at Ellis Park at this level. Prove Worthy (#1) finished behind a couple of other runners who return in this spot, but I think he’s the one you want out of that race. Stamina is no concern for this Curlin colt, considering that he won his maiden going 10 furlongs at Churchill two back. He really put it all together that day in a race that featured a couple of next-out winners. While the result was disappointing last time at Ellis, that race was dominated up front over a course that was really playing to speed. He never gave up that day and should fare better here over this demanding Saratoga surface. My top pick is another late-running son of Curlin. Complete Agenda (#4) picked up minor awards in some similar spots here last summer when he was in the barn of Todd Pletcher. He went off form after that, but seemed to get back on track at Aqueduct this winter and has continued to move forward since being claimed by Tom Morley. He faced unfavorable pace setups in his first two starts off the claim for this barn and reportedly bled in that April 23 event. He fared better last time when closing for third in an off-the-turf race behind Film Star. He gets the distance, and notably receives the LP flag (highest Late Pace Rating) on the Pace Projector, which could be significant over this demanding Saratoga surface.

Fair Value:
#4 COMPLETE AGENDA, at 8-1 or greater

RACE 8

I’m not way against Baby Yoda (#3) as he returns from a brief freshening for his second start of 2023. This horse just has a reputation as a Saratoga specialist, primarily due to that smashing win here in 2021, so he figures to be an awfully short price. I’m not sure that his recent form makes him quite so deserving of heavy favoritism here, but he’s obviously the one to beat. He seems to be training well recently, so perhaps there is something is the notion that he thrives at the Spa. I suppose his main rival is Nakatomi (#2), but this horse tends to take money as well and just doesn’t deliver often enough. He also tends to break a step slowly and can be somewhat pace dependent, which is a concern in this compact field. My top pick is Shooters Shoot (#4). I had tried this gelding off the long layoff last time when he first switched into the Joe Sharp barn, and he just ran like a horse who needed that race for fitness. A mile is probably pushing him to the limit anyway, and he actually traveled very well to the quarter pole before tiring in the late stages. I expect him to move forward off that race for Joe Sharp, who tends to point to this Saratoga meet. He may not have the biggest win percentage, but he sports a $2.39 ROI with all starters at Saratoga over 5 years. I really liked the way this horse worked last week, and I think this is a great spot for him turning back.

Fair Value:
#4 SHOOTERS SHOOT, at 5-1 or greater