PICKS

Race 1:   7 - 8 - 4 - 2
Race 2:   6 - 5 - 2 - 3
Race 3:   10 - 1 - 3 - 8
Race 4:   1 - 5 - 6 - 3
Race 5:   4 - 2 - 5 - 8
Race 6:   6 - 9 - 4 - 8
Race 7:   1 - 5 - 9 - 4
Race 8:   7 - 8 - 3 - 4
Race 9:   2 - 4 - 1 - 5
Race 10:   7 - 5 - 12 - 10

PLAYS

(Guide - WIN: recommended win/key horse at fair odds; UPGRADE: value horses I picked underneath to consider upgrading in vertical/horizontal wagers; USE: runners to include in vertical exotic wagers with Win horse)

RACE 3: CROSSTALK (#10)

I’m not trying to beat #10 Crosstalk, who should go favored here as she drops to the lowest level of her career. While the first inclination might be to say that she should have improved on turf looking at her pedigree, she may ultimately prove to be more of a dirt horse. Her dam was actually better on dirt, and her best sibling Street Tsar just won his debut on dirt at Belmont despite being a son of Street Boss. She ran well in her main track debut at Tampa over the winter while facing a much better field. I also think her last race isn’t as bad as it looks since she was setting the pace, where you didn’t want to be, on the inner turf course at a time when it was favoring closers. David Duggan does a good job and appears to be placing this filly to win while putting the blinkers on. The others with experience don’t do much for me, so I put first time starter #1 Carlann second. There’s actually some pedigree here, as the dam is a half-sister to multiple dirt winner Am Impazible, from the family of millionaire New York-bred Royal Posse. She’s been training decently in Florida for low-profile connections and picks up Tyler Gaffalione for her debut. Other to consider are #3 Big Bean Christine, who gets a rider upgrade, and the class-dropping #8 Shane’s Risk, but I preferred the speed from the outside.

WIN: #10 Crosstalk, at 2-1 or greater
USE: 1,3,8

RACE 4: WAR STOPPER (#1)

#6 Two Thirty Five figures to attract some support of his gigantic 120 TimeformUS Speed Figure (and 99 Beyer) last time out. It was his first start off the claim for Mertkan Kantarmaci, and he delivered in a big way, getting back to some of the best efforts from his younger days. However, that was a weaker field than this and he got a favorable setup. The waters get deeper here, and he’s not the most reliable sort wo put huge efforts back-to-back. I wanted to look elsewhere for some alternatives. I do respect #5 Zoomer, who could also take some money here. He’s just getting logical class relief after facing tougher in most of his starts since getting claimed by Linda Rice. He didn’t run that badly in the Westchester two back, and wasn’t effective last time in a race where no one closed. He’s won going this distance before and should be more forwardly placed with Flavien Prat taking over. My top pick is #1 War Stopper. This 5-year-old was purchase for $57k at the recent Keeneland April sale, following his last start for Pletcher. I wouldn’t view it as a negative that he’s now racing in a $50k claiming race, since the purse here is $80k and he appears to be in with a strong chance to win. He’s coming off a series of losses, but he’s been pitted against tougher company in all of those races. Seven furlongs was too short off the layoff three back, and he’s not a turf horse so I don’t care about that experiment. His last race was a step in the right direction, as he held on well for third against a salty field. Rob Falcone has solid stats off trainer switches and I’m hoping Ricardo Santana gets aggressive from the inside in a race that features a murky pace scenario. At a bigger price, I’d also use #3 Indimaaj, who could attain forward position in this race. Robertino Diodoro has been dangerous up here at different points in the past, but he does need to reawaken this 7-year-old horse.

WIN: #1 War Stopper, at 3-1 or greater
USE: 3,5,6

RACE 5: DISCO DEANO (#4)

#5 Yarrow finally broke out of the maiden ranks last time in his 6th attempt. He wasn’t done any favors by the pace that day, as he had to close into moderate fractions, just getting up at the wire with a late rush. He has more quality than his recent speed figures might suggest, as he got a poor trip when stuck in traffic two back. The major concern for him is the turnback to 5 1/2 furlongs, but he does figure to get more pace in this spot, which might mitigate any distance limitations. He’s the one to beat, but I’m not sure he’ll offer much value as the favorite. A logical contender who could get somewhat overlooked is #2 Veterans Beach. This 6-year-old gelding returned this summer at Belmont for a new barn and outran his odds to finish second at this level behind gate-to-wire winner Deep Cover. He wasn’t quite as effective last time, but 7 furlongs is just too far for him; will appreciate the turnback and gets a positive rider switch to Luis Saez. I want to get a little more creative in this spot. #4 Disco Deano’s prior turf attempts don’t exactly jump off the page, but he was a solid third on grass against open company earlier in his career. He was then facing much tougher at Tampa in December 2020 in his only other grass start. He’s since done well on synthetic at Presque Isle, earning speed figures that make him very competitive here. He needs to improve slightly on his recent form at Finger Lakes, but he’s a candidate to take a step forward third off the layoff and is guaranteed to get overlooked for Finger Lakes connections.

WIN: #4 Disco Deano, at 8-1 or greater
USE: 2,5,8

RACE 7: I'M FINE (#1)

I respect both favorites in this race, but I didn’t think either one was a great bet at relatively short prices. #5 New Ginya is more appealing to me as she did do some closing into a slow pace last time in a race wired on the front end by her stablemate. She clearly took a step forward second off the layoff and just needs some pace up front to be effective here. #9 Russiarussiarussia is a contender, but feels like another runner who could get overbet for Chad Brown and Irad Ortiz. She has to improve on her maiden victory last time and was beaten by a couple of today’s rivals last year. Joe Sharp has entered a pair of runners who bookend this field and I think both are interesting. #1 I’m Fine was beaten by New Ginya last time, but she covered a bit more ground chasing outside and may not have appreciated the stretch-out to 9 furlongs. She also put in a good effort two back when running the second-best race behind the winner. Now she’s drawn well on the rail and gets a significant rider upgrade to Luis Saez. I'm hoping he can have her more forwardly placed from the rail draw, which will be important in a race lacking pace. I had originally picked her second to Sharp's other runner Classic Lynne, but that one will scratch, since she's entered in a stakes on Wednesday.

WIN: #1 I'm Fine, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 8: ASYMMETRIC (#7)

#8 Big Invasion has certainly earned his role as the favorite in this Quick Call, having reeled off 4 consecutive victories with ease while stepping up against progressively tougher competition. He’s also shown plenty of versatility for a turf sprinter, running as effectively going 7 furlongs at Belmont as he did 5 furlongs at Gulfstream. He settles well early in his races, which gives Joel Rosario plenty of options with regard to trip. He’s been remarkably consistent, but just doesn’t possess a huge speed figure advantage over this field, so it’s not out of the realm of possibility that someone could step up and beat him. I’m looking at #7 Asymmetric as the one who can turn the tables on the favorite. He was well beaten by Big Invasion when they met in the Paradise Creek last time, but he had some things working against him that day. He was coming off a layoff and stretching out to 7 furlongs for the first time. He also was adding blinkers, and just got far too rank using that new equipment, running off on the front end through an unreasonably fast opening quarter. The 158 TimeformUS Pace Figure for the opening quarter of that race is wildly fast for the distance. He actually battled on gamely to be second that day. The colt had shown real quality as a juvenile in Europe, where he was effective coming from off the pace. He shouldn’t mind this turnback and may be better than his U.S. debut indicates. I’m just crossing my fingers that Euro-based jockey Jamie Spencer can work out a trip for him.

WIN: #7 Asymmetric, at 2-1 or greater

RACE 9: NIGHT TIME (#2)

The Chad Brown-trained #4 Sound Money is the horse to beat in this high-level optional claimer, but I’m a little concerned that he could get overbet in this spot, as is the case with so many runners from this barn getting ridden by Irad Ortiz. He’s been in solid form recently, collecting a couple of graded stakes placings behind talented horses like Jackie’s Warrior and Cody’s Wish. He’s a solid fit here on the class drop and has the tactical speed to work out any kind of trip. I just don’t think he has as great of an advantage over this field as is likely to be represented in his odds. I have similar feelings about #5 Fortin Hill, who always has been popular with the bettors. He’s gone off at odds under 2-1 in every start of his career except when they tried the Grade 1 Forego. He’s run fine in his three start for Bill Mott this year, but he’s nevertheless lost each time and isn’t getting much class relief here. #1 Supremacy is an interesting new face as he makes his NYRA debut off a big effort last time out at Churchill. He set a strong pace that ultimately fell apart, holding on for second while earning a strong speed figure. He has to cut back to 7 furlongs here and draws the rail. He also must take his show on the road, as his only two competitive races have come at Churchill. I’m going in a different direction with #2 Night Time. Some may write this horse off based on his poor effort in the True North, but he never had a chance against Jackie’s Warrior that day, especially once they took him to the back of the pack behind a slow pace. I’m drawing a line through that. His return from the layoff was solid enough, and he still has a right to build on that. He has run very well during his prior summer trips to Saratoga, so I’m looking for a step forward at what should be a square price.

WIN: #2 Night Time, at 9-2 or greater