PICKS

Race 1:   3 - 5 - 7 - 1
Race 2:   6 - 7 - 3 - 12
Race 3:   1 - 9 - 15 - 16
Race 4:   6 - 2 - 3 - 4
Race 5:   4 - 5 - 2 - 6
Race 6:   1 - 10 - 8 - 2
Race 7:   1 - 7 - 9 - 5
Race 8:   7 - 8 - 3 - 6
Race 9:   2 - 4 - 9
Race 10:   6 - 10 - 7 - 9

PLAYS

RACE 4: HONOR HOP (#6)
This starter allowance looks like it could be dominated by Kentucky shippers and there are multiple appealing options among them. Misty Veil is arguably the one to beat after taking a massive step forward in her first start off the claim for Tom Amoss last time. Sent off at 21-1, she was involved right from the bell and never stopped hounding eventual winner Tabor Hall, just losing a bob to that one at the wire. Tabor Hall would be a significant favorite in this spot, so Misty Veil must be respected as she comes to Saratoga and picks up Irad Ortiz. Some other 3-year-olds like High Fashion and Puye Timing are also worth considering. High Fashion finished ahead of Puye Timing when they met last time, but I thought the former got the better trip. Puye Timing prefers to be forwardly placed, and she was off a step slowly, which put her at the back of the pack. She then launched a premature far turn move before flattening out. I could use all of those, but my top pick is the 4-year-old filly Honor Hop. This daughter of Honor Code has made the majority of her starts on the turf, but she ran well in each of her dirt starts this spring. She perhaps found a mile to be on the short side for her at Keeneland when settling for fourth against a decent maiden field. Yet she took a step forward 15 days later, winning a 10-furlong maiden event at Churchill in the slop. That performance should translate well to this demanding 1 1/8 miles at Saratoga, especially considering that the main track figures to be wet on Sunday. I like that she can be forwardly placed and I suspect she has a stamina advantage over her foes.

Win: 6
Exacta: 6 with 1,2,3,4
Trifecta: 6 with 2,3 with 1,2,3,4

RACE 5: JUGGLER (#4)
Among those with experience, Juggler is probably the most interesting option as he makes his second start for Kelly Breen. He took more money than another Breen runner in today’s first when he made his debut at Belmont, but looked like a horse who just needed a start. He was very sluggish from the start and Joel Rosario didn’t show much urgency letting him settle at the back of the pack. He did make some late progress and galloped out strongly. It is worth noting that the third-place finisher who was closing in tandem with him came back to just miss with an improved speed figure. This colt has a nice damside pedigree and I think we’re likely to see him show more this time. He’s my top pick, but there are a few very interesting first time starters in this field. Senbei, Hot Rod Rumble, and Lil Stevie all go out for very dangerous debut barns. Lil Stevie in particular sports a quick workout at Pimlico last week and figures to take money with Irad Ortiz aboard. Senbei is bred to be a pure sprinter, and Hot Rod Rumble has strong dirt sprint pedigree on the dam’s side. I’d even be interested in Cozzy’s Attitude, a half-brother to capable dirt sprinter Pretty Cozzy. The majority of his workouts prior to the last one were in company with Bourbon’s Hope, who won his debut on dirt at Belmont with a 92 TimeformUS Speed Figure.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,2,5,6

RACE 6: FAST BREAK (#1)
This race arguably becomes more interesting off the turf. Free Enterprise could go favored as he returns from yet another layoff for Chad Brown. However, he was never a factor in his lone start this year, and just hasn’t ever gotten back to the promising efforts he put forth during his 4-year-old season. Chad is now doing the right thing in dropping him in for a tag, but I’m not sure he possesses an ability even at this level. He would obviously be tough for this field to handle if merely running back to his effort at Saratoga last year, but I’m not sure he’s still that same horse. On dirt, there doesn’t appear to be a ton of speed signed on for this race. A router like Handy is somewhat tactical, but I think they could all find themselves chasing Fast Break from the rail. This gelding is making his first start for Rob Atras after being campaigned by Brittany Russell for the past few months. While she progressively stretched him out in distance, I’ve always preferred this horse going shorter. He was part of a quick pace two back in a race that is stronger than it might appear, and last time he found himself setting a very fast pace while perhaps not racing on the best part of the track down inside. I think he’s better than his recent speed figures indicate, and I love this turnback to 7 furlongs for him. I prefer him to runners entered for turf like Handy and Fortuity. Handy does have the form to contend here, but it's unclear if turning all the way back to 7 furlongs will agree with him. Fortuity will take money based on a performance in the slop at Churchill two back, but he was lucky to win that race over the 3-year-old Gershwin. I have some doubts about the quality of that field, and wouldn't want a short price on him.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,8,10
Trifecta: 1 with 8,10 with 2,4,8,10,12

RACE 10: SHIRLEY GREENE (#6)
Before You’s dirt form clearly makes her the horse to beat in this maiden claiming finale, but there’s something a little fishy about this horse. She was apparently a private purchase following her debut at Tampa, and she really wasn’t disgraced in her first start for the new connections in the mud at Aqueduct. All three rivals who beat her that day have returned to win, including Grade 2 Mother Goose runner-up Always Carina. Based on that performance over a wet track, she’s just way too classy for this field. However, it’s perplexing that her connections seemed committed to running her on turf in her next few starts, and now she’s dropping all the way down to the $20k maiden claiming level for her return to dirt. These Saratoga maiden events do typically come up tougher than this, but it’s a little odd that they’re just giving her away. She’ll probably win, but I wanted to search for at least one viable alternative. The best option I could come up with is Shirley Greene. This filly has clearly been a work in progress in her two starts. She was a little green in her debut at Keeneland, but was claimed out of that start by Ten Strike Racing and Bentley Combs. The claim becomes less surprising when you look at her pedigree, as she’s a half-sister to the very fast sprinter Bulldogger, as well as Ten Strike’s graded stakes-placed mare Portal Creek. She doesn’t appear to possess the ability of those siblings, but I do think she’s better than what we’ve seen from her so far. She got a very tentative ride last time at Churchill and feels like one that could really benefit from the addition of blinkers. It also doesn’t hurt getting Joel Rosario in the irons.

Win: 6
Exacta Box: 6,10