PICKS

Race 1:   5 - 7 - 3 - 1
Race 2:   5 - 4 - 2 - 7
Race 3:   1 - 4 - 2 - 3
Race 4:   5 - 6 - 2 - 4
Race 5:   4 - 5 - 1/1A - 8
Race 6:   7 - 5 - 1 - 9
Race 7:   1 - 6 - 9 - 8
Race 8:   4 - 5 - 3 - 2
Race 9:   8 - 1 - 6 - 3
Race 10:   5 - 2 - 7 - 9

PLAYS

RACE 1: ROYAL ASSET (#5)
I have some issues with the favorites in this race. The Michael Dubb entry figures to attract plenty of support, with Dowse’s Beach obviously the stronger half of this pair. However, this 9-year-old gelding did his best work at this level for Jason Servis, who obviously is no longer training. He made his first start off the trainer switch to Mike Maker last time, and he was just a little dull. He wasn’t that quick out of the gate, got to the lead in midstretch, but then offered no resistance once Fast Getaway ran by him. Perhaps 5 1/2 furlongs is better for him, but I prefer others at better prices. Dr. Shane will also take money here, but I’m a little concerned about the distance. He clearly comes out of the toughest races, having competed in very strong open company optional claiming events over the winter. However, he appears to have lost the early speed that he once possessed, and this 5 1/2 furlong distance was always on the short side for him. Furthermore, Danny Gargan, who typically wins at a high rate, is just 5 for 41 (12%, $0.61 ROI) with all starters over the past 3 months. In some ways the most trustworthy horse is Banana Thief, who always runs well at this level and can certainly fire fresh. Yet I want to go in a different direction, so I’m taking a shot with Royal Asset. This horse’s recent form is pretty inconsistent, but I thought he actually put forth his best effort in quite some time when last seen on June 25. Romero Maragh tried to be aggressive in the early going, but he ultimately got shuffled back down towards the inside. He actually put in a solid stretch rally when he got clear in the lane, losing to Dowse’s Beach by only a head. He has more tactical speed than that, and I think he should be more forwardly placed having drawn outside this time. Turf is his best surface, and he should be a generous price with Luis Cardenas taking over the reins.

Win/Place: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,3,7

RACE 5: THIN WHITE DUKE (#4)
There are a number of intriguing first time starters in this field, but I’m focusing on a runner with experience. Thin White Duke made two starts at the Belmont meet, both on dirt. He ran pretty well each time, closing into a slow pace in his debut before flattening out when trying to make a run over 5 1/2 furlongs last time. I really like the switch to turf with this gelding. He’s by 14% turf sprint sire Dominus and he’s a half-brother to 4 turf winners, including the very fast Yes and Yes, who was a turf sprint winner as a 2-year-old. Phil Gleaves’ runners have been performing well all summer and I think this horse has found the right spot. The other horse that interests me also has some experience. Data Deal finished behind Thin White Duke in his only start at Belmont, but he also has plenty of turf pedigree. He’s by solid turf influence Data Link and is a half-brother to a decent turf sprinter, Jen’s Battle. I’m going to primarily focus on these two and I’ll use the first time starters defensively. Martinez is by good sire of precocity Twirling Candy, and the coupled pair of Generazio runners both have solid credentials to excel going short on the turf.

Win: 4
Exacta Box: 4,5
Trifecta: 4 with 1,5 with 1,2,3,5,8

RACE 8: MY SASSY SARAH (#4)
The two main players in this race exit the same race at this level on June 20. Light in the Sky ran right past My Sassy Sarah in the stretch that day, but I thought she got the better trip. They were flying up front in that race and Light in the Sky settled towards the back of the pack and launched a strong stretch rally into second. Things didn’t go quite as smoothly for My Sassy Sarah, who was last away from the gate, putting her out of position right from the start. She made a middle move into contention at the quarter pole, but seemed to flatten out in the late stages. They were both making their first starts off a layoff that day, but I think My Sassy Sarah probably needed to get more out of that start. My Sassy Sarah showed real ability as a 2-year-old, earning an impressive 100 TimeformUS Speed Figure in her maiden victory at Belmont. She was in the wrong spots after that and now they’re doing the right thing by focusing on turf sprints. I think we’re going to see a forward move out of her, and I believe she’s very likely to win this race.

Win: 4
Exacta: 4 with 2,3,5

RACE 9: CAT’S PAJAMAS (#8)
Typically I’d be reluctant to advocate for a likely favorite in a race as competitive as this Lake Placid, but I just can’t get past Cat’s Pajamas. She’s the quintessential “last time was the time” kind of horse, as you got odds of 7-1 and 27-1 on her in her last two victories, and now she’s going to be among the shortest prices. That said, I have to assess her based on her form today, rather than my past perceptions of her. She’s just a different filly on the turf, and she’s won her last two races with something left in the tank. The margin was only a half-length last time, but she never looked like a loser. She got a good trip, but her tactical speed allows her to make her own luck. Today’s rival Lashara took a shot at her late after having to extricate herself from traffic in upper stretch, but that filly was never getting to Cat’s Pajamas in the late stages. Cat’s Pajamas seems far more likely of these two horses to step forward with the 1 1/8 miles distance. Furthermore, there isn’t any speed signed on in this spot and Cat’s Pajamas should be able to either make the lead or track her uncoupled stablemate Blame Debbie. I think that gives her a significant advantage over main rivals, all of whom have very little speed. Speaktomeofsummer was compromised by a slow pace against a tougher field in the Wonder Again last time, but she could have similar troubles today. Stunning Sky comes in with some of the best speed figures, but she figures to be last early and passing them all could be a tall order if they go slowly up front.

Win: 8
Exacta: 8 with 1,3,6
Trifecta: 8 with 1,6 with 1,2,3,4,6