by David Aragona
Get the wagering strategy for this card in this year’s TimeformUS Saratoga Betting Strategies package, which includes PPs for each day of the meet, exclusive access to the daily Highlight Horse, multi-race ticket constructions, and additional analysis of every stakes race at the meet. More info ›
Race 1: 8 - 1 - 7 - 3
Race 2: 3 - 2 - 1 - 7
Race 3: 2 - 8 - 7 - 6
Race 4: 1 - 2 - 5 - 3
Race 5: 4 - 2 - 6 - 7
Race 6: 2 - 1 - 9 - 8
Race 7: 10 - 1 - 5 - 7
Race 8: 3 - 7 - 2 - 6
Race 9: 8 - 2 - 10 - 1
Race 10: 8 - 9 - 2 - 7
Race 11: 4 - 5 - 3 - 2
Race 12: 2 - 8 - 10 - 4
Race 13: 5 - 1 - 2 - 3
RACE 3: SKYWRITING (#2)
With the scratch of Value Engineering this race loses what was likely to be a heavy favorite. My original top pick of Skywriting will now be a much shorter price, but I still think he's a worthwhile bet in this spot. He may not even inherit the favorite's role with a proven turf horse like Bad Boy still in the race. I’ve been waiting for Skywriting to get on turf ever since he first came to New York, and I think Linda Rice has potentially made a very smart claim here. This horse showed potential on dirt, but his pedigree indicates that he’s supposed to be better on turf. His dam was only competitiveover turf and synthetic surfaces, running well enough to place in a Grade 2 stakes on grass. Furthermore, she is a half-sister to Buddy’s Humor, a multiple stakes winner on turf. His tactical speed should give him an advantage in a race where few others prefer to be forwardly placed and I’m hoping he can wire this field.
RACE 5: SCARS ARE COOL (#4)
Spice Road figures to vie for favoritism with the Chad Brown pair. He was the victim of a controversial disqualification when hecrossed the wire first last time, finishing ahead of a good one in Meet Me in LA. He stretches out here, but stamina shouldn’t be an issue given that he’s a full-brother to 9-furlong G3 winner Avery Island. I’m using him, but I prefer the two Brown second time starters. Per Capita took some sneaky money in his debut on a day when the rail was the place to be. Per Capita drifted into the two-path on the turn before swinging widest of all for the stretch drive. He was moving best late and figures to appreciate the stretch-out as a full-brother to G3 dirt router Iron Fist and G2- winning dirt router Anchor Down. Furthermore, Chad Brown is a remarkable 19 for 47 (40%, $2.03 ROI) with 3 -year-old and older secondtime starting maidens going from sprints to routes on dirt. His uncoupled mate Majority Rules finished up well once he worked his way into the clear in the lane in his debut, but there wasn’t much behind him. That said, he appears to be training well in company with Per Capita since that unveiling. I’m using both, but my top pick is Scars Are Cool. He encountered a solid group in his sprint debut, and chased a fast pace before fading. The runner-up from that race, Ry's the Guy, returned to break his maiden with a 115 TimeformUS Speed Figure (an 11- point improvement). Scars Are Cool lost as the even-money favorite last time, but had a nightmare of a trip that day, getting caught in a pocket in between horses for the last half-mile before finding additional traffic trouble in deep stretch. He otherwise would have won that day. His tactical speed should help in a race that lacks a confirmed front-runner, and Stanley Hough has developed an excellent record with dirt routers since returning to training.
RACE 6: TAKE CHARGE TINA (#2)
This is one of the most confounding races on the card, since many of the competitors don’t appear to be ideally suited to the conditions. Furthermore, the expected favorite Chestnut Street is particularly hard to trust. She will obviously beat this field if she runs back to any of her last three turf outings, but she hasn’t been seen in nearly a year and she’s returning for the Ray Handal barn instead of her prior trainer Chad Brown. You obviously have to use her, but there’s clearly an expectation that she is going to regress off her form from last season. Furthermore, she possesses very little early speed, and that can sometimes be detrimental in these one-mile races on the inner turf. The problem with this race is that the alternative options are quite limited. Kickin Kimberly makes some sense off her maiden score two back, but she was fairly dull against winners last time while facing a field that wasn’t exactly tougher than this one. I also don’t want Mama Dee, who was very fortunate in her maiden score at Gulfstream and has been sluggish in both starts since then. Art Buff has some appeal on the switch back to turf, but it’s unclear if she possesses the speed or turn of foot to win going this trip. Given my reservations with all of these more logical alternatives, I want to look outside the box.I’m taking a shot with Take Charge Tina in her turf debut. Rob Atras’s runners have been firing lately after a bit of a lull during the early summer. Since the beginning of July his barn has gone 8-3-2-2 and he’s already had a couple of winners at Saratoga. This filly doesn’t have much apparent turf pedigree on the dam’s side, though her second dam did handle it. Yet Take Charge Indy has been emerging as a decent turf influence. He’s won with 11 of 71 first time turfers(15%) so far as a stallion, which is pretty solid. This filly has a way of going that may translate to turf, and her early speed makes her a wire-to-wire threat in a race that lacks confirmed front-runners.
RACE 8: YANKEE EMPIRE (#3)
Basin is going to attract significant support in this race due to the fact that he lost to Sanford winner By Your Side by just a nose in his debut. While he ran fine that day, I’m just not sure how strong the Sanford was and believe that even a maiden race like this might contain horses of greater quality than that Grade 3 affair. By Your Side only earned an 86 TimeformUS Speed Figure in that Sanford win, and a number like that probably wouldn’t be good enough to get it done here. That said, Steve Asmussen does great work in this situation. Over the past 5 years, he is 9 for 29 (31 percent, $2.37 ROI) with second time starting maidens in dirt sprints at Saratoga. I’m using him defensively, but I prefer some others. Three Technique and Yankee Empire come out of the same maiden race at Belmont Park and I think they’re both very interesting. The former took all the money that day, getting hammered down to 4-5 odds. Yet, unlike many firsters who are live first time out, Three Technique did not flash much early speed. He rated at the back of a 4-horse field before closing into a slow pace. He deserves credit for making up ground that day since they came home in very fast time. Yet, I still believe Yankee Empire has greater upside out of that race. Whereas Three Technique didn’t possess the early speed to be involved in the pace, Yankee Empire broke a step slowly and then tried to rush up to contest the lead. However, he got caught in a pocket in behind horses and was extremely rank while throwing his head about, resenting being forced to rate. Rosario tried to come through an opening inside at the quarter pole, but that closed up as well and he had to steady. He eventually found room in the lane, but he couldn’t sprint home with the top two after exerting so much energy fighting his rider early in the race. I expect this horse to show much more speed second time out and I believe he’s going to wire this field. I would also use Parx shipper Mr Thrifty, who apparently ran into a good one in his debut and doesn’t need to improve much on that 97 TimeformUS Speed Figure to have a shot in this race.
RACE 9: HALLADAY (#8)
I suppose Hoboe is the horse to beat as he makes his third start off the layoff for David Donk. He ran very well in his May return when nearly getting past the well-meant Chad Brown runner Unleveraged, and he followed that up with another strong showing last time. It briefly appeared as if he was going to blow past the entire field when Manny Franco set him down at the top of the stretch that day, but he shifted in dramatically coming to the sixteenth-pole, losing his momentum. Despite the stops and starts, this horse is in the best form of his career now as a 5-year-old. I’m using him prominently, but I’m reticent to take a deep closer like him going this one-mile distance on the inner turf. Variant Perception and Penalty figure to attract some support down towards the inside. The former appears to be heading in the right direction for Chad Brown, but I don’t believe that he’s yet run well enough to beat this field. Penalty is perhaps more interesting, since he showed improvement in his 4-year-old debut at Gulfstream and then put in a strong bid to be second to the highly-regarded Voting Control last time after altering course in the lane. The one-mile distance seems perfect for him and he figures to work out a good trip. I’m using him prominently, but my top pick is last-out maiden winner Halladay. Don’t be deterred by the inferior speed figure that he earned in his lone route attempt last fall, since he has improved significantly since then and that was a stronger race than the figures indicate. After all, he defeated top 3-year-old turf horse Seismic Wave that day. His return at Belmont in June was very encouraging. He was meeting a very good horse in Sayyaaf and he won the race the hard way, going after that one early before wearing him down in the stretch. The manner in which he won that race suggests to me that he should have no trouble stretching out an extra furlong. The 109 TimeformUS Speed Figure that he earned suggests that he fits with these and Sayyaaf validated that number by returning to earn a 111 in his subsequent maiden score. Over the past 5 years, Todd Pletcher is 6 for 24 (25 percent, $2.88 ROI) with last-out maiden winners making their second starts off a layoffs on turf. The Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, but I think he can slot right in behind the speeds and work out a stalking trip.
RACE 10: BORRACHO (#8)
Identity Politics figures to be among the short prices in this confusing affair, but I’m not the biggest fan of this horse. I know he hinted at having graded stakes potential at the end of last year, but he just hasn’t gone on as a 4-year-old. His loss to Be Gone Daddy at Gulfstream was inexcusable. He was never a factor in the Carter after that and only won his last race because stablemate Payne endured out a nightmare of a trip through the stretch. He still had to work hard to get by Tap Master at the end of that race, and that horse would be a massive longshot in this field. Identity Politics has been a disappointment and I want to bet against him at a short price. I know that some people are afraid to support 3-year-olds stepping up to face their elders this early in the year, but Borracho is coming into this race in career best form and is fast enough to overhaul his more experienced rivals. He clearly appreciated the decision by his connections to turn back to sprint distances earlier this spring and he’s rewarded them with a Grade 1 placing at this distance. Borracho arguably could have won the Woody Stephens had Jose Lezcano managed to get him off the rail sooner. Jose was trying to do the right thing over a rail-biased surface, but the two horses that beat him sacrificed ground loss by instead choosing a clear outside path and it benefited them. Yet it doesn’t seem as if that tough race has taken anything out of Borracho, since he’s worked exceptionally well since then, most recently reeling off a dazzling sub-46 half-mile. He’s a closer in a race that doesn’t feature many speed types, but that’s the case for main rival Identity Politics as well. The two horses with tactical speed who appear to be most dangerous are Restoring Hope and Majestic Affair. I’m not sure what to make of the former after he showed uncharacteristic early speed to win a 7-furlong race at Gulfstream back in March. I’m not sure that effort would be good enough to beat this field and the layoff since then is somewhat of a concern. I prefer Majestic Affair, who ran legitimately well to beat cheaper claiming foes last time and is confidently bumped up in class in his second start off the claim for Robertino Diodoro. They are my two main backups.
RACE 11: SIGNIFICANT FORM (#4)
Likely favorite Significant Form already defeated a couple of her chief rivals in this Carress last time out in the Intercontinental. Yet that was going 7 furlongs and now she must turn back in distance to 5 1/2 furlongs, by far the shortest trip of her career. Typically, I would be against these horses. Runners that begin their careers as successful turf routers are rarely capable of transitioning to turf sprints at the same level. Yet Significant Form may be an exception to that rule. This filly always displayed some hints of stamina limitations in her route races. We first saw some evidence of that in the Breeders’ Cup as a 2-year-old, and then again in the Wonder Again and Belmont Oaks last year. Her year ended on a sour note but she had excuses for those efforts. I loved Chad’s decision to try her going the 7 furlongs since I had a suspicion she’d appreciate it, and that turned out to be the case. She only won that race by a half-length, but the win was always within her grasp as long as Irad Ortiz could pick a path through the crowded pack. A hole opened up at the eighth pole, and she shot through with dazzling acceleration. I’m sure the nature of that win gave her connections confidence that she could handle this true turf sprint, and I tend to agree with them. She’s not going to get that much pace to close into, but I think she showed last time that she has the speed to sit relatively close to a moderate pace. Her main rival is Morticia, who is obviously a specialist at this distance. While Morticia is an admirable mare, having hit the board in 19 of 21 turf starts, mostly against stakes company, she’s not invincible. Her top speed figures do not make her a standout in these races and she’s always vulnerable to an exceptional performance by one of her rivals. I believe that Significant Form is the one that put forth such an effort on this occasion.