by David Aragona
Now Available: TimeformUS Saratoga PPs and Betting Strategies
Gain access to TimeformUS PPs for all 40 days of the Saratoga meet, plus betting strategies – recommended wagers for each of David Aragona's daily Top Plays, fully constructed multi-race tickets including daily Pick-4s and Pick-5s, and additional strategic information around playing every card. You will also receive exclusive access to David's Highlight Horses, as well as opinions on all stakes races. Learn more ›
Race 1: 2 - 7 - 6 - 1
Race 2: 3 - 1A - 5 - 1 - 6
Race 3: 1 - 6 - 2 - 5
Race 4: 2 - 4 - 6 - 8
Race 5: 8 - 5 - 6 - 2
Race 6: 4 - 5 - 3 - 8
Race 7: 5 - 9 - 8 - 1
Race 8: 2 - 4 - 5 - 7
Race 9: 2 - 4 - 3 - 5
Race 10: 9 - 10 - 2 - 4
RACE 2: SIPPICAN HARBOR (#3)
I’m hardly against the Mark Casse entry, both of whom have legitimate chances in this spot. Chocolate Kisses is perhaps the more convincing of the two since this daughter of Candy Ride has an excellent damside pedigree, which suggests she should have no trouble handling turf. She is a half-sister to 3 turf winners, including graded stakes winner Synchrony. She ran well in her sloppy track debut at Churchill Downs, and speed can be very dangerous in these juvenile routes. Toy Moon doesn’t have much turf pedigree, but I thought she showed some potential in her dirt sprint starts. There are a number of first time starters to consider, and I’m not enthralled with those that figure to take money. Two Dozen Roses goes out for Todd Pletcher, who actually pretty poor numbers with firsters in turf routes at Saratoga. Aunt Ashley debuts for Graham Motion, but she isn’t necessarily bred for turf despite being by Uncle Mo. I instead want to take a shot with a horse that figures to offer some value. I know that Gary Contessa rarely wins with first time starters, but he also has a lot of slow horses in his stable. We’ve seen him win with some longshots in a few tough debut spots over the years, even though his overall stats are poor. They paid a lot of money for this daughter of Orb as a yearling, and her damside pedigree suggests that turf should be her preferred surface since she’s a half-sister to 3 grass winners. The workout reports on her recent drills have been very positive, and I think that’s noteworthy in a race where no one looks particularly formidable.
RACE 4: BENEFACTOR (#2)
Adulation is making his first start for a tag after a pair of disappointing efforts at Churchill Downs. He is just far and away the class of this field and is supposed to win if he shows up with a halfway decent effort. That said, this is a pretty drastic drop in class considering that levels at which he had been running. Perhaps his Saratoga-loving owner just wants to get a win up here, or it could be that the horse has gone in the wrong direction. I think you have to use him, but I see a viable alternative. Benefactor would be formidable here if he were to run back to his April 11 effort for Mike Maker. He’s been campaigned primarily on turf during his career, but his dirt efforts – with the exception of his last start – are all fine. So what happened last time? That was a particularly aggressive placement off the claim, as this runner had faced far weaker in his prior runner-up finish against conditioned claimers. He was not in the same league as those horses and he basically went on a suicide mission trying to chase a speedball like Still Krz through the early stages. He was finished at the quarter pole, and Luis Saez just wrapped up on him, exaggerating the margin of defeat. This time, the Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring horses on or near the lead, and he should be sharing the front with Three to Thirteen early. The drop in class is not a great sign, but it’s Saratoga and the Robertino Diodoro barn is not afraid to run horses where they belong at the risk of losing them. He also makes his first start as a new gelding.
RACE 5: POINT TO REMEMBER (#8)
Domain has to be considered the horse to beat off his pair of runner-up finishes at Belmont. The two horses who beat him – both Centennial Farm runners – have a bit of talent. I thought Domain could have put up more of a fight on each occasion, but he’s undeniably a major player. Fireball Shot has run just as well in his races, but he’s just had too many chances at this level. If the others fail to show up, I suppose he could finally graduate, but you’re generally supposed to bet against these horses. There are some alternatives to consider. The one I want to bet is Point to Remember, who should appreciate the stretch-out in distance. This horse showed promise right from the start when he finished second to eventual Wood Memorial winner Vino Rosso in his debut last fall at Aqueduct. It took him a while to get back to the races, and I suspect that his connections have been using his two runs in 2018 as stepping-stones to this race. Those distances – six to 6 1/2 furlongs – just appear to be too short for this son of the long-winded Point of Entry and the graded stakes-winning router Miss Isella. He got rolling late on each occasion, but he just didn’t possess the finishing speed to run down his rivals over a sprint distance. To his credit, he is coming out of what appeared to be a particularly strong race for the level, as the winner, Payne, looks to have a nice future. Over the past five years, Jimmy Jerkens is 10 for 39 (26 percent, $2.27 ROI) with horses stretching out for the first time on dirt. A more relaxed pace should allow him to settle into a more comfortable stalking position. The horse who may find himself on the lead is Wooderson, and I don’t think you want to totally ignore this half-brother to Rachel Alexandra. He was resurgent in his debut after appearing to be well beaten at the top of the stretch, and then he was compromised by having to rate behind a very slow pace at Monmouth last time. He’s bred to handle the distance, and he figures to get a more aggressive ride this time.
RACE 6: WET YOUR WHISTLE (#4)
Among those with turf form, I suppose Fuel the Bern has run the best races. He’s been right there at the finishes of his last four starts despite climbing the class ranks. However, he’s a question mark while turning back to this 5 1/2-furlong distance, and I thought he should have won at this level last time. He got an absolutely perfect trip that day and just could not hold off Major Force, who overcame a slow pace. This time, he faces a pair of intriguing first-time turfers. The one likely to attract the most attention is Bam Bam Blu. You don’t see too many 6-year-old first-time starters, and it’s even rarer for such runners to have ability. Bam Bam Blu did not show much in his debut, but he seemed to come alive when he was dropped in class over a sloppy, sealed track last time. It took him a long time to change leads, but he just appeared to skip over the surface while under only mild encouragement. Horses who handle surfaces like that one sometimes can translate that form to turf, and he certainly is bred to do so. While many of his siblings have handled multiple surfaces, he is a half-brother to five turf winners, so turf should not be a problem. The problem is that all of Jason Servis’s runners are taking a ton of money given his current win rate. I’ll use him, but I’m actually more intrigued by Wet Your Whistle. Stroll has been a prolific sire of turf sprinters, winning with 18 percent of his horses going such distances in a 329-horse sample, according to DRF Formulator. This runner’s half-siblings excelled on both turf and synthetic surfaces, which bodes well for him transferring his form to grass. Despite the fact that he debuted against maiden-claiming company, he ran well that day after having to steady around the far turn. Mike Trombetta has been known to bring live runners to this meet.
RACE 8: STAINLESS (#2) / QUEEN MUM (#4)
Dancing Breeze seems like the right favorite based on her overall body of work in the U.S. She ran very well in both of her starts last season, closing to be third despite a slow pace on Oct. 25 before finishing a very strong second to the talented Rymska in the Winter Memories. Her return as a 4-year-old was disappointing, though it’s worth noting that winner La Moneda may be a mare with stakes in her future. Dancing Breeze may be better over courses with some give to them, so rain in the forecast for this weekend may help. I’m using her, but I want to take a shot with returning 3-year-old Stainless. This filly ran an exceptional race in her turf debut last fall, finishing second to eventual Breeders’ Cup winner Rushing Fall in the Jessamine. The race did fall apart late, but Stainless nevertheless did well to follow the winner while finishing ahead of some other decent runners. Her only other turf race was poor, but the course for that Dec. 9 race at Gulfstream was anything but “good,” as the final time would suggest it was closer to soft. Todd Pletcher can get horses ready off layoffs, and she has a right to take a step forward as a more mature filly. The other horse that I want to use at what should be a decent price is first time turfer Queen Mum. While she doesn’t have overwhelming turf pedigree, there are some reasons to think she’ll handle it. While her best half-sibling was top sprinter Constellation, Queen Mum is also a half-sister to a turf winner and her sire Paynter is turning into a solid turf influence. She’s clearly kept good company in her races, having finished just behind Monomoy Girl and Cosmic Burst as a two-year-old. She probably needed her return off the layoff last time and an encouraging recent turf work suggests she’s doing well heading into this race.
RACE 9: MIDNIGHT BISOU (#2)
The Coaching Club American Oaks is indeed a two-horse, as it is being billed. Monomoy Girl and Midnight Bisou will face off for the second time after the former got the jump on her rival in a game Kentucky Oaks score. In my view, that race did not answer many questions, since Monomoy Girl got a great trip and Midnight Bisou was somewhat compromised by the race flow. In this 5-horse field, especially given the lack of speed, we should get a more definitive answer as to who is superior. I’ve been wrong about Monomoy Girl before. I doubted her talent and versatility through the spring, and I can admit that I’ve underestimated her. She’s a very good filly who is capable of making her own good trip, and I’m glad to see that she’s finally running some fast speed figures. However, 1 1/8 miles at Saratoga is a very demanding distance, and even her connections would likely concede that she is stretched to her limit going this far. I preferred Midnight Bisou in the Kentucky Oaks, and I, like many others, feel that she was somewhat compromised by her trip. While she didn’t have obvious trouble, she was forced to follow a bunch of horses that were going nowhere while racing wide after getting squeezed back at the start. I was impressed by that quick burst of speed that she displayed coming off the far turn, and thought she had every right to flatten out late. She had no such trouble in the Mother Goose, and her talent was fully on display. I loved the way she tugged Mike Smith right up into the race that day, something she hadn’t done before, and she still produced that electric finish. In my opinion, she’s run just as well as Monomoy Girl in her graded stakes wins, and I think she’s every bit the equal of that foe. I have a bit more confidence that she will handle the 9 furlongs, and the prospect of a wet track is not a concern, since she handled that in the Santa Ysabel. At what figures to be a better price, I think she’s the right one to lean on.