PICKS

Race 1:   5 - 4 - 3 - 7
Race 2:   8 - 4 - 7 - 2
Race 3:   2 - 3 - 5 - 1
Race 4:   7 - 2 - 10 - 3
Race 5:   3 - 6 - 1 - 2
Race 6:   1 - 5 - 7 - 8
Race 7:   12 - 4 - 5 - 11
Race 8:   5 - 4 - 8 - 7
Race 9:   11 - 9 - 3 - 4
Race 10:   7 - 2 - 1 - 3
Race 11:   12 - 11 - 10 - 9

TOP PLAYS

RACE 1: MISS MO MENTUM (#5)
I’m most interested in runners with experience, and the one that I prefer is Miss Mo Mentum, who gets on turf for Mark Casse. The Casse barn did fantastic work with its two-year-old maidens on the turf at the Spa last season, going 6 for 15 (40 percent, $4.88 ROI), and this filly looks like she could really move up with this surface switch. Her dam’s only win came on turf and this daughter of Uncle Mo is a half-sister to a turf winner. Her debut on dirt at Gulfstream was better than it looks considering that she was taken up sharply heading into the far turn. It’s a little odd that she only sold for $50,000 as a yearling, but that’s a minor worry.

RACE 2: WE DID (#8)
You have horses coming from all over the place in this race. Some are dropping out of tougher optional claimers, while others are moving up out of cheaper spots. Generally, I’m leaning toward those dropping in class, and the runner who interests me most is We Did. His last two efforts at Parx aren’t quite as poor as they seem, and I think he’s going to appreciate this seven-furlong distance. Over the past five years, Bruce Levine is 9 for 47 (19 percent, $2.47 ROI) in straight claiming dirt sprints at Saratoga.

RACE 4: BELLOWS (#7)
The two runners likely to attract the most attention at the windows are the recent maiden winners Phi Beta Express and Northern. Of the two, I prefer Phi Beta Express. Danny Gargan has great numbers off maiden wins, and this horse beat a decent field last time. The problem is that there is so much speed in this race, and both are front-runners. The Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, so I’m going to try to beat them with the closer Bellows. I know he looks a little slow, but his one dirt race as a 3-year-old wasn’t as bad as it seems considering the slow pace. Some of his races as a juvenile were decent, and he may have improved since then.

RACE 5: SECURITIZ (#3)
Thebigfundamental certainly can win this race at a short price. There isn’t much speed in here, and the Pace Projector is predicting that he will be on the lead in a situation favoring the front-runner. That said, I don’t expect Securitiz to be that far off him early. I thought this 5-year-old ran well in his return at Belmont last time, and he should really appreciate the stretch-out to nine furlongs. Securitiz may still have his best days ahead of him, whereas some of the other older runners in this group appear to be on the decline. The longshot that I want to include in exactas and trifectas is Goats Town. At first glance, it appears that he’s off form. However, he’s had excuses in his last two dirt starts and is likely to outrun his odds in this spot.

RACE 7: GOBI (#12)
This is yet another race that features a ton of early zip. The Pace Projector is predicting a fast and contested early pace, and I’m hoping that can set the table for Gobi’s late run. She’s been effective from off the pace in the past, but she doesn’t have to be quite as far back as she was two races ago, when she got shuffled back early. Linda Rice gets a 98 Trainer Rating with horses moving from turf to dirt.

RACE 8: ALABAMA BOUND (#5)
The trip handicappers’ horse in this race is About That Base, who wasn’t fully clear until very late in the stretch last time and would have finished closer otherwise. However, she has Javier Castellano aboard again, and I don’t think she’s going to be a very attractive price. Instead, I’m going to try to get Alabama Bound to wire the field. She ran off on a fast pace last time and had a right to get tired late. The horse who won that race, Belle of the Spa, is pretty talented, so I’m not going to hold the three-length loss against her. This Tom Bush filly may appreciate getting back out around two turns and appears to be rounding back into form.

RACE 9: SUNNYSAMMI (#11)
Animal Appeal is the horse to beat, but I’m not totally convinced that she’s the same horse we saw last season. Going this shorter distance at Saratoga is what she does best, but she’s supposed to have some early company, and I think she’s beatable. The two runners I want are Miss Katie Mae and Sunnysammi, and I’m putting the latter on top since she figures to be a better price. Sunnysammi ran extremely well to be second in The Very One to start her 2017 campaign and then just got the wrong trip at Delaware last time when she was too far back and buried inside. I expect her to be placed closer to the pace here.

RACE 11: MAJOR FORCE (#12)
While I respect contenders Starstruck Kitten and Prognostication, who have run well at this level, I have to bet the longshot Major Force in this race. I’ve been waiting for this runner to get on the turf since he’s a half-brother to turf stakes winners Avenge and Lira. It’s a little suspicious that he’s been campaigned so cheaply, but he’s been claimed by some shrewd connections and should show an improved performance if he can get over from this outside post position.