PICKS

Race 1:   4 - 1 - 8 - 3
Race 2:   4 - 2 - 1 - 7
Race 3:   3 - 2 - 4 - 1A
Race 4:   6 - 7 - 1 - 2
Race 5:   3 - 4 - 2
Race 6:   4 - 7 - 8 - 6
Race 7:   10 - 5 - 7 - 11
Race 8:   7 - 4 - 6 - 2
Race 9:   5 - 2 - 1 - 4
Race 10:   9 - 6 - 1 - 7

PLAYS

(Guide - WIN: recommended win/key horse at fair odds; UPGRADE: value horses I picked underneath to consider upgrading in vertical/horizontal wagers; USE: runners to include in vertical exotic wagers with Win horse)

RACE 4: PHANTOM SMOKE (#6)

I believe #6 Phantom Smoke is a very likely winner of this New York-bred N2X allowance affair. He had shown turf sprint ability as a 3-year-old and ran well when just missing over this course and distance last summer. That was his first start off a layoff and he subsequently improved in two more starts downstate. He returned from another lengthy layoff last time at Belmont and ran a much better race than his final position would indicate. That was one of the fastest paces that we’ve seen on turf in New York all year, especially for a 6-furlong turf sprint. Two horses set some wickedly fast fractions, and he wasn’t that far off stalking in third, well ahead of the eventual winner. He made the first move to reel in those two pacesetters, but proved vulnerable late after running so fast for the first 5 furlongs. I love this slight turnback for him, and he projects to work out a great trip stalking a more moderate pace this time. His main rival appears to be #1 King Angelo, who is also making his second start off a layoff. This horse won up here last summer when leading all the way, and I think he’s best using that front-running style. They tried to rate him off the pace in his return last time, and it proved to be the wrong move, as he lacked a late punch. I think he’ll get a better trip this time, but I still prefer his Christophe Clement trained rival. #7 Battle Station is the other interesting horse at a better price. He’s getting significant class relief while moving back into the barn of Rob Atras, for whom he’s had past success.

WIN: #6 Phantom Smoke, at 7-5 or greater
USE: 7

RACE 6: KALING (#4)

Among the first time starters in this race, #7 Rarify figures to take money. She is a daughter of Triple Crown winner Justify and a half-sister to sprint champion Runhappy. Wesley Ward can obviously win with a 2-year-old, and showed some confidence nominating her to the Schuylerville on opening week. Chad Brown's #8 Randomized should also attract support as a daughter of 16% juvnenile debut sire Nyquist. Yet the one that I'm most interested in is #4 Kaling. Todd Pletcher has done well with his 2-year-old firsters over the past couple of summers. This filly is by 19% juvenile debut sire Practical Joke. The siblings haven’t been much, but she nevertheless appears to have some ability. She’s earned the fastest workout time from the gate at Belmont on July 8, which is usually telling for Pletcher runners. And on July 17 at Saratoga, she was going much easier than colt Bat Flip, who debuts in today’s first race. I think there’s talent here, and she may be a fair price given the strength of this field.

WIN: #4 Kaling, at 2-1 or greater

RACE 7: TREASURED GEM (#10)

Chad Brown looks pretty formidable in this two-year-old maiden turf routes. #5 Idea Generation is a daughter of top international sire Dubawi, who was acquired for $485k at Tattersalls. The dam earned her only victory in a one-mile turf maiden in Ireland. She’s produced two foals to race who are both winless. The dam is a half-sister to Zoffany, a Group 1 winner as a 2-year-old in Europe, and Rostropovich, runner-up in the Group 1 Irish Derby. Chad Brown is 9 for 43 (21%, $1.12 ROI) with 2-year-old firsters in Saratoga turf routes over the past 5 years. However, he’s 9 for 23 (39%, $2.09 ROI) within that sample when Irad Ortiz is riding. She was traveling very nicely in that July 17 turf work, always appearing to have more in reserve. There are some runners with prior to experience to consider as alternatives. #7 Born Dapper ran well in two starts in Canada, on both turf and synthetic. She’s bred to stretch out for a dangerous barn. Yet I’m trying to beat the favorite with another firster. #10 Treasured Gem is a homebred daughter of Medaglia d’Oro, out of a dam who was best going long on dirt, and was Grade 3-placed on that surface. Connections purchased the dam for $1.5 million after her racing career. The only sibling to race crossed the wire first on turf once, but was disqualified. Christophe Clement is 4 for 21 (19%, $1.84 ROI) with juvenile first time starters in Saratoga turf routes over the past 5 years. This filly looked a little awkward in that July 8 drill, having to be asked to change leads. Yet she was much more professional on July 15, showing some turf ability while besting a workmate. She appears to have talent and should run well if able to work out a trip from the outside post.

WIN: #10 Treasured Gem, at 3-1 or greater

RACE 9: BLAZING STAR (#5)

#1 Osiria will be looking to win two in a row after breaking her maiden in her third attempt last time out. She clearly took a step forward in that second turf start, displaying improved speed to lead a field from gate to wire. She was flattered when runner-up Frosted Oats returned to win with a strong speed figure, and Christophe Clement has solid stats off maiden wins. I expect her to run well showing speed from the inside, but I didn’t want to take a short price on anyone in this competitive allowance. #4 Boxing Day could attract support as she drops out of stakes company. She only finished 1 1/2 lengths behind last year’s Breeders’ Cup winner Twilight Gleaming in the Mamzelle, but that was a race where many horses hit the wire together, and I’m not sure any of them ran that well. #2 A Little Faith merits respect off her runner-up finish at this level last time, since it was her first start in nearly two years. She showed good speed and just got tired in the last furlong. The slight cutback shouldn’t bother her since she’s been successful going 5 1/2 furlongs in the past. I considered putting her on top, but wanted to get a little more creative. #5 Blazing Star figures to get somewhat overlooked here off two nondescript efforts in the U.S. However, I don’t think either of those races at Churchill – one on dirt, the other a route – were ideal spots for her. She had shown some speed and ability sprinting in Europe last year, and I believe that’s what she wants to do. This daughter of sprint sire Dark Angel looked quick overseas, and I think she can take a real step forward switching into the barn of Mike Maker. She obviously has some questions to answer, but she’ll fly under the radar and is finally getting a chance to do what she wants.

WIN: #5 Blazing Star, at 7-1 or greater
USE: 1,2