PICKS

Race 1:   3 - 2 - 4 - 6
Race 2:   6 - 2 - 4 - 9
Race 3:   8 - 7 - 5 - 10
Race 4:   6 - 1/1A - 4 - 5
Race 5:   9 - 1 - 10 - 5
Race 6:   6 - 5 - 2 - 1
Race 7:   7 - 2 - 5 - 3
Race 8:   14 - 16 - 2 - 6
Race 9:   2 - 7 - 4 - 1
Race 10:   6 - 8 - 5 - 2

PLAYS

RACE 1: OPENTHEGATE (#3)
The fillies with experience could go favored in this seemingly weaker division of the split Sunday maiden events. Trade Secret has shown speed in both starts. She set the pace before fading behind subsequent Debutante winner Behave Virginia two back. Then last time she won the battle with her favored Asmussen stablemate, but lost the war as both were run down late. The Asmussen barn has come out firing at this Saratoga meet, but I wonder if we’ve already seen the best of this filly. Tap N Glo got a good trip in her debut, a race marred by an incident at the top of the stretch. All things considered she stayed on well, but she needs to do better to win here. Brad Cox tends to get somewhat overbet with these types. Some may go to the Chad Brown first time starter as an alternative, but I’m most interested in a different debut runner. Openthegate is by Arrogate, who has yet to sire a debut winner from 3 foals to start. The dam was a two-time dirt route winner, and her only foal to race is minor dirt route winner Smoking Gun. However, she is a half-sister to multiple dirt stakes winner Theskyhasnolimit. Bill Mott is 7 for 30 (23%, $2.65 ROI) with 2-year-old firsters in dirt sprints over the past year, a major improvement from his numbers in that category in prior seasons. This filly broke much better than a stablemate in that recent gate drill, and traveled well before opening up a big margin on the gallop-out. I get the sense she can run a little.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 2,4,6

RACE 3: EPONA'S DREAM (#8)
There are a few runners who could attract support in this off-the-turf maiden event, which will now be run at 1 1/8 miles on the main track. I strongly prefer Epona’s Dream, who has proven herself to be about equally talented on turf and dirt. She’s been knocking on the door at this level for a while, but I think she’s steadily made progress in her development over the past half a year. She’s gotten over gate issues that plagued her early on, and she’s gotten herself more involved in races through the early stages. She’s just run into some horses who have been more talented in a few of the recent maiden events, but I think she catches the right field this time. Stretching out to 1 1/8 miles should benefit her more than anyone else and she proved that she handles a wet track last time. I’m skeptical of some others who could take money, such as La Victoria, who figures to be the speed. This filly has taken a ton of money in both starts and it’s unclear if she has much ability at all. Stretching out may work for this daughter of Tapit, but the damside pedigree is all sprint influences. Pop the Bubbly, my original turf pick, is still a contender on dirt, but this is a more demanding test for her as she makes her return from a 6-month layoff. I also think she’s slightly better on grass, despite what the speed figures might indicate.

Win: 8
Exacta: 8 with 5,7,10

RACE 8: LOCALLY OWNED (#14)
This race is still pretty interesting as an off-the-turf affair with so many contenders entered for Main Track Only. The horses likely to attract the most support are Yankee Division and Dack Janiel’s. The former runner’s participation may hinge on how much the track dries out by the time they run this race in late afternoon. He’s proven to not care for sloppy, sealed surfaces, but he would likely be fine over a good, harrowed track. Yankee Division handles the 9-furlong distance and should control the pace of this race from his inside post position. He’s the one to beat, but I think there are some other intriguing contenders. Dack Janiel’s would obviously be competitive off his last effort, but he got a great trip in that spot and is wheeling back in just 10 days. I’m most interested in some runners drawn to the outside. Winston’s Chance makes plenty of sense in his second start off the layoff. He ran fine when picking up pieces behind Highest Honors last time, and can move forward off that return. He’s enjoyed this Saratoga venue in the past and is proficient over any kind of surface. My top pick is Locally Owned. This horse is coming off a poor effort last time at Belmont, but that was just the wrong spot. A one-turn mile is a little too short for him, and that race didn’t feature any pace as it was dominated on the front end by a trio of superior horses. He had run very well in his prior start off a two-month layoff, and now he’s returning from another short break of about two months. I love the stretch-out to 1 1/8 miles, especially at Saratoga where he ran one of the best races of his career to be third behind Prioritize and Money Moves last year. He’s reportedly working well for this, and I expect him to bounce back with a good effort.

Win: 14
Exacta Key Box: 14 with 2,6,16
Trifecta: 14 with 2,16 with 2,6,15,16

RACE 9: GOLD SPIRIT (#2)
I believe this Shuvee will be decided by the Chad Brown runners, as I’ve never been the biggest fan of Crystall Ball, who has been defeating weaker company. That said, I’m most skeptical of the entrant of his who could be the shortest price. Dunbar Road reportedly came out of the La Troinne with a minor excuse, so perhaps there’s a reason why she didn’t show up with her top effort that day. However, that’s not the only time she’s disappointed recently, as she also lost the Beldame last fall with an inexplicably dull effort. She may bounce back again, as she did in the Breeders’ Cup, but I don’t need her at a short price. I prefer Chad’s two other runners. Royal Flag is very logical as she makes her second start of the year. She ran well in the Doubledogdare, and has since been flattered by how well Bonny South and Graceful Princess have won out of that race. She also should appreciate the stretch-out to 1 1/8 miles, at which she’s run some of her best races. Yet I’m most interested in Chad Brown’s new face, Gold Spirit. This Chilean import really came to hand late last year in her native country, improving markedly once she was stretched out in distance beyond a mile. She easily took over from a pacesetter to win that Group 2 in October, and then she made a sweeping move from mid-pack to win the Group 1 Aberto Solari Magnasco. That’s the one of the races that Chad Brown’s Breeders’ Cup runner-up Wow Cat won before embarking on U.S. campaign. Wow Cat also won the St. Leger, a race that Gold Spirit lost last time, but Gold Spirit didn’t get the best ride that day, making a premature move into a quick pace. She’s been training well and may have this kind of ability.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,4,7
Trifecta: 2 with 4,7 with 1,4,6,7