by David Aragona
 

Get the wagering strategy for this card in this year’s TimeformUS Saratoga Betting Strategies package, which includes PPs for each day of the meet, exclusive access to the daily Highlight Horse, multi-race ticket constructions, and additional analysis of every stakes race at the meet. More info ›

PICKS

 
Race 1:   4 - 3 - 2 - 7
Race 2:   8 - 2 - 7 - 4
Race 3:   2 - 4 - 3 - 6
Race 4:   1 - 6 - 5 - 3
Race 5:   5 - 4 - 7 - 10
Race 6:   6 - 4 - 2 - 5
Race 7:   9 - 1 - 4 - 8
Race 8:   3 - 7 - 8 - 4
Race 9:   2 - 4 - 7 - 5
Race 10:   3 - 8 - 7 - 4
Race 11:   5 - 12 - 7 - 6
Race 12:   3 - 7 - 5 - 4

PLAYS

 
RACE 1: CLEON JONES (#4)
I’m not saying anything too clever in pointing out a potential favorite, but I believe Cleon Jones is going to show up with a much better performance in his second start. This horse was bet down to 4-5 favoritism in his debut at Belmont and just did not work out the right trip. The plan was obviously to show speed, but Cleon Jones broke a bit flat-footed and was running into traffic by the time Dylan Davis got him into high gear. He then had to wait behind a wall of horses coming around the far turn in a situation where the early pace was slow. By the time the field entered the stretch, the eventual winner, Listentoyouheart, had plenty left in reserve and kicked away. Meanwhile Cleon Jones had to swing to the far outside for running room and merely stayed on decently. This horse looked great at the 2 -year-old sale earlier this year and figures to show much more speed second time out. I want to use him with first-time starter Stanhope, who has shown some ability in his training. This horse has more of a turf pedigree on the dam’s side despite being a son of Street Sense. Yet he looked very professional in his local gate drill over the main track and I won’t be surprised if he shows some ability first time out. Shug McGaughey doesn’t often have them cranked up, so I’m reluctant to put him on top, but I do think he’s the main danger to my top selection.
 

RACE 3: OUR LAST BUCK (#2)
Fooch seems like the potential favorite as he takes a slight drop in class for Wesley Ward. This horse has earned some superior speed figures and clearly performs well going these short sprint distances. Yet, he’s starting to run out of chances, having lost as the favorite in three consecutive starts against winners. I’m using him, but I want to go in another direction. Tenure also will attract support after breaking his maiden in visually impressive fashion at Monmouth in late June. He ran a decent race when second to Clyde’s Runner in his debut, but I didn’t really see him step forward last time despite winning by 4 lengths. There just wasn’t much behind him in that Monmouth maiden special weight and I think he’s going to have to show improvement if he’s to be effective against winners. I want to bet Our Last Buck off the layoff. George Weaver admittedly doesn’t have great statistics in this situation, but this horse has run well fresh in the past and I’ve been waiting for him to get into a spot like this. The 5-year-old gelding was originally cut out to be a turf horse, which is where Weaver debuted him last summer. While some may perceive that as a weak race, he actually ran exceptionally well to hang on for third after dueling through unreasonably fast fractions going a demanding one-mile distance. He’s subsequently proven that he’s a much better sprinter, so it makes sense that he should get a chance to sprint on the turf. He had some poor trips over the winter at Aqueduct, so that good effort on Feb. 10 is not as great of an outlier as it might appear, even though the horse did benefit from a strong rail bias on that occasion. His pedigree suggests that turf is supposed to be his preferred surface, and I think he can run well in this spot. The other horse I want to use is Our Stormin Norman, who showed some ability routing on turf as a 2-year-old and has since proven that he’s better off sprinting.
 

RACE 4: KAZMANIA (#1)
The two horses likely to attract the most support in this spot are Runningwithscissors and Daddy Knows. The former has taken an unusual path to this race, contesting stakes at Emerald Downs over the past couple of months. He was no match for the undefeated Baja Sur out there, but he did stay on well to be second while earning a pair of competitive speed figures. Yet he’s hard to recommend off his prior form in California and I wonder what kind of effort we’re going to see out of him in his New York debut for new trainer Tom Amoss. I’m using him defensively, but I think Daddy Knows is more trustworthy. He’s proven his quality against some salty maiden fields, and I actually don’t mind this turnback to 7 furlongs. It seemed like the 1 1/8 miles may have been a little far for him last time, and this sprint distance might intensify his late kick. I think he’s the horse to beat, but I want to go in a slightly different direction. My top pick is Kazmania, who is need of a better trip. He was a little unlucky two back when he got caught in traffic behind the top two finishers coming off the layoff. Then last time he was shuffled back in the early going and sent up to launch a wide rally on the far turn, losing a ton of ground while spun about 6 or 7 paths off the rail by the time they reached the quarter pole. That race had more of an inside flow to it, so he was just on the wrong part of the track. He has more tactical speed than that and he figures to use it as he gets a positive rider switch to Kendrick Carmouche. These low-profile connections will ensure that he’s a playable price and he may be every bit as talented as the two favorites.
 

RACE 7: AYMARA (#9)
Queen Medb is probably the horse to beat as she attempts to break her maiden for Chad Brown. However, she’s been short prices in each of her last two starts and has been unable to get the job done while working out good trips. Her stablemate Catch a Bid was simply better than her last time, and she stayed on decently to get second. I’m using her, but I don’t think she’s anything special. Confessing will also attract support, and she may have more upside as a near-$1 million 2-year-old purchase. It’s no surprise that she wasn’t effective on dirt in her debut since her pedigree is strongly geared towards turf. She stepped forward nicely last time, but it’s hard to know how strong that race was since many of the runners in that field were trying grass for the first time. She’s dangerous, but I want to look elsewhere. My top pick is Aymara, who gets back on turf for Bill Mott. This filly put in a decent effort in her debut routing on grass at Gulfstream, closing belatedly between horses after getting away slowly. She showed some good finishing speed, but just seemed somewhat unprepared for that start. She was much sharper next time out when switched to dirt with blinkers, flashing significantly improved speed while chasing a fast pace. She faded at the end, but that’s probably due to the fact that she’s not really a dirt horse. If she can transfer that speed to turf and improve a bit on her debut performance, I think she’s a serious threat to the shorter prices in here. I would also use second time starter Shurakaa in some capacity. Her dam was an excellent turf runner. She was just a little green in her debut, and has a right to do better with that experience under her belt.
 

RACE 9: FIXED POINT (#2)
It’s difficult to know how the public will approach this race, since so few have previously competed at this class level. The runner with the best turf sprint form overall is probably Pagliacci, but it’s difficult to know what to expect from this horse in his second start off the claim for Linda Rice. He’s never been the most reliable win candidate and this 5.5 furlong distance may be a tad short for him. I can excuse his dirt performance last time, but he had to work much harder than expected to beat some inferior rivals in a claiming race two back. Now he’s back on the right surface, but I still prefer some others. So Conflated ran some flashy speed figures on turf out in California last year, but it’s unclear if he will be as effective over this shorter trip, and the layoff is obviously a concern. I’m very afraid of End Play, who makes his first start off the claim for Jason Servis. This horse has run some competitive races in the past for Tom Bush and fits at this level. His recent form looks subpar, but Jason Servis has a knack for getting these horses back to their best efforts, especially in turf sprints. I’m using all of them in some capacity, but my top pick is the speedy Fixed Point. I’m just hoping this horse can shake loose from the other speeds in the early going, as the Pace Projector suggests he can. He’s very dangerous when he makes the front in these turf races, and the shorter distances are clearly preferable for him. He’s coming off a series of off-the-board finishes, but he’s had excuses in most of those spots. He was on the wrong surface last time, got involved in a duel two back, and encountered a yielding course three back. This horse wired a field in fast time over this course and distance last season, and I’m hoping he can repeat that feat in his return to Saratoga.
 

RACE 10: DYNA PASSER (#3)
Night of England figures to be favored as she makes her return from a layoff for Chad Brown. She was ambitiously placed in her U.S. debut, tackling the Grade 3 Long Island last fall at Aqueduct. She actually ran fairly well in that spot, setting the pace for most of the way before tiring in the late stages. While it seems logical that she’s now returning in a N1X allowance race, I think the jury is still out as to how much quality she actually possesses. Her German form is difficult to assess, since she wasn’t facing the best fields despite earning a Group 1 placing in that country. She hasn’t been too impressive in her recent workouts in company with some classier stablemates, so I won’t be surprised if she needs a start off the long break. Giant Zinger is another to consider with some back class. Stretching back out to 1 3/8 miles will obviously help her, since she achieved her best results when third at this distance in both the Orchid and Sheepshead Bay this spring. I’ll use both of these, but I want to focus on the lightly raced Dyna Passer. This half-sister to Grade 1 winner Sadler’s Joy has a right to keep improving with age and distance She ran well behind the still-undefeated stakes winner Valiance three back on April 13, and she relished the added ground two when stretched out to this distance. While she only won by one length that day, she was far more visually impressive than the margin would suggest, as she ranged up powerfully on the far turn and always had the win wrapped up in the lane. Her connections got overly ambitious last time in the Belmont Oaks, and she was hardly disgraced while rallying into a slow pace to be fifth. I would expect her to love the three turns of this race over Saratoga’s inner course, and I think we’re going to see her best effort yet. The other horse that I want to use prominently is So Charming, who runs like a horse who should relish the added ground she gets to work with. Furthermore, she’s closed well into relatively slow paces in her recent starts and may be in better form than it appears.
 

RACE 11: HONEST MISCHIEF (#5)
The most intriguing horse in this Amsterdam is Shancelot, who has posted gigantic speed figures in his two starts to date. He only won his debut by a neck, but he did so against a very strong field at Gulfstream, and that impressive 121 TimeformUS Speed Figure has held up to scrutiny. Runner-up Bodexpress went on to record a similar figure in the Florida Derby prior to contesting the Triple Crown races, and the 3rd and 4th place finishers both returned to win, with one of them actually improving his speed figure. It took this horse a long time to get back to the races following that first start, but he looked just as good as ever at Monmouth last time. He blasted off from that field early and won in stylish fashion, earning another huge figure. The Pace Projector indicates that he’s faster than this field early, and he may just be able to run them off their feet. He’s not my top pick, but I certainly respect him. The Woody Stephens is an interesting race to analyze from a trip perspective. Nitrous achieved the best result of those exiting that Grade 1 event, but he had a lot of things go his way that day. He was able to save ground towards the rail early and only angled off the inside when launching his late move. He did well to nearly get up for the victory, but the race was one of the few that day that featured an outside flow in the stretch. I think that was the time to have him at a big price, and he’s going to be much shorter this time. I strongly prefer Honest Mischief out of that spot. This horse was heavily bet down to favoritism and I think that support may have been justified. While he finished 6th, he showed real ability in defeat. He drew the difficult rail post position and was compromised when he broke a step slowly. From there, he had to rush up into contention early while vacating the coveted rail position in order to advance. He ranged up three-wide approaching the quarter pole and briefly seemed as if he was going to win the race before the wide trip took its too, as it did on many horses that week at Belmont. Honest Mischief has continued to train well out of that race, and I believe he can rebound with a victory here. The other horse that I would use out of the Stephens is Wendell Fong, who was 2- to 3-wide for most of his trip before drifting inside late. He may just be an improved horse for Jeremiah Englehart and he has the ability to sit just off the pace. I’ll throw him in underneath.