by David Aragona
Now Available: TimeformUS Saratoga PPs and Betting Strategies
Gain access to TimeformUS PPs for all 40 days of the Saratoga meet, plus betting strategies – recommended wagers for each of David Aragona's daily Top Plays, fully constructed multi-race tickets including daily Pick-4s and Pick-5s, and additional strategic information around playing every card. You will also receive exclusive access to David's Highlight Horses, as well as opinions on all stakes races. Learn more ›
Race 1: 7 - 6 - 3 - 5
Race 2: 2 - 6 - 7 - 5
Race 3: 6 - 8 - 7 - 4
Race 4: 1 - 6 - 3 - 5
Race 5: 4 - 7 - 5 - 10
Race 6: 10 - 5 - 12 - 3
Race 7: 3 - 7 - 5 - 1A
Race 8: 5 - 10 - 11 - 2
Race 9: 4 - 7 - 6 - 5
Race 10: 14 - 5 - 1 - 10 - 7
RACE 3: TEXAS MUSIC (#6)
The two horses likely to attract the most play are the fillies posted to the outside, both of whom are coming off solid performances at Belmont. Glossy did not get a great trip when she finished behind Factoring on May 11, and she rebounded nicely last time at the same level. With blinkers removed, she sat off the pace and launched an effective sweep to the lead in the lane. If she repeats that effort, she will be tough for this field to handle. Factoring, the horse who defeated her two back, stepped up to this level last time and ran a respectable race. Seven furlongs may be a bit far for her, but she nevertheless closed well against what appeared to be a stronger field than this one. I’m using both of these fillies, but their late-running styles may not be well suited to the dynamics of this race. Texas Music is an interesting new face in this bunch. She has only made one start on turf, and that came back in April 2017 at Keeneland. Sent off as a 20-1 outsider, she actually ran exceptionally well, carving out fast fractions (indicated by red color-coding in TimeformUS PPs) before fading to fourth. That effort was clearly better than her surrounding dirt races at the time. Recently, she has done her best work over the synthetic track at Presque Isle Downs, and she appears to be coming into this race in some of the best form of her career. The Pace Projector is predicting that she’s faster than the two fillies with speed to her inside, Paranoia and Jo Jo’s Candy, so she might be able to shake loose on the front end.
RACE 4: MERADA (#1)
There is a trainer angle in this race that has been unwise to try to buck in past Spa seasons. Over the past five years, Steve Asmussen is 10 for 22 (45 percent, $3.63 ROI) with second-time starting 2-year-old maidens in dirt sprints at Saratoga. That applies to Merada in today’s race. Watching her debut on June 29, she actually didn’t run any better than Into the South, who is also in this race. That filly got disqualified for interference, but she made a strong move into contention in upper stretch. Merada really had no excuse that day as she got a good trip into the lane and just didn’t have a strong answer late. However, Asmussen has a way of getting these horses to show their true colors second time out. I think it’s also worth noting that she recently worked well over the Saratoga training track in company with impressive debut winner Lyrical Lady. Among the first time starters, Always Shopping is the one that appears to be live, but it will be wise to watch the tote board.
RACE 5: ALTERNATIVE ENERGY (#4)
Among those with experience, Tapping Colors brings the best résumé to the table. She’s finished in the money in her last three turf starts and actually seems to have gotten better as Ralph Nicks has cut her back in distance. She’s exiting what appears to be a very strong race, as winner Battle Joined and third-place finisher Quaff both returned to win at this meet. The only knock against her is that she’s gotten fast paces to close into in a few of her recent races, and it’s unclear how much speed is in this race, as many of the contenders are first-time starters. My Bronx Tail finished far behind Tapping Colors last time, when she clearly reacted badly to being pushed through an extremely fast opening quarter-mile by Battle Joined. I like the turnback to 5 1/2 furlongs for her, but she obviously needs to rebound. Dig Deeper interests me while turning back in distance since she’s a half-sister to good turf sprinter Paddle Board and may not have wanted to go two turns in her last two starts. I’m using her prominently along with the aforementioned fillies, but the horse who interests me most is a firsttime starter. I don’t expect to get a great price on Alternative Energy, but I think she might have some ability. This filly worked in an impressive 21 seconds flat at the 2-year-old sale back in April of last year. It’s obviously taken her a while to get to the races, but she’s been working well in recent weeks, actually going a bit better than recent maiden winner Lovely La La in a drill last week. Furthermore, she is bred to be a flat-out turf sprinter since she’s by 17 percent turf-sprint sire Kantharos and her full sibling was a turf sprinter. Chad Brown clearly knows how to win with a first-time starter at Saratoga.
RACE 6: TACTICAL PURSUIT (#10)
I suppose the horse to beat is Strike Me Down in this confusing race. He’s proven his class in two straight stakes attempts, one of which was a solid fourth-place finish in the prestigious Queen’s Plate. He actually ran quite well in that spot despite working out a somewhat uncomfortable trip after trouble at the start. I like him getting back on turf, though I wonder if he’ll appreciate ground with some give to it. He also appears to be a somewhat goofy horse who doesn’t always have his mind on running straight. Pony Up is a viable alternative since he actually ran quite well in his limited turf appearances earlier in his career. He closed effectively over a wet turf course on Dec. 9 and then closed resolutely into a slow pace in the Kitten’s Joy the last time he was seen on this surface. He’s obviously got some ability, but he’s going to need a solid pace to close into as a deep closer. I’m using both of these runners, but the horse who interests me most is Tactical Pursuit. This one has only run in Florida thus far, and it’s right to be skeptical of the quality of some of those Gulfstream fields at this time of year. However, the stakes that he exits was actually a pretty difficult spot, and I thought he ran well to be third after a weird trip. He appeared to be going nowhere heading around the far turn, as he apparently didn’t want to go through a hole inside of runners. Yet once Jaramillo got him into the clear at the head of the stretch, he absolutely exploded with a potent late run. I don’t think we’ve seen the best of this colt yet, and this barn knows how to get a young horse to keep progressing.
RACE 7: SILVER DUST (#3)
If Runaway Lute runs in this race, I’ll likely elevate him to my top pick, but his participation seems to be in doubt after he reared and fell over in the paddock prior to the John Morrissey on Thursday. If Runaway Lute does not make it into the starting gate here, Tommy T becomes the horse to beat. This runner kept good company in a series of maiden races last year, running fast speed figures when finishing behind eventual stakes winners like C Z Rocket and Westwood. He finally broke through last November before meeting a salty group in January, his first start against winners. If he can get back to that form in his return from the layoff here, he will be awfully tough to beat. This gelding works fast in the morning, so he may be pretty fit. I’m using him, but I want to take a shot with Silver Dust, who figures to offer better value. This runner had subtly improved when he was switched into Bret Calhoun’s barn this winter, as he ran well to win in March at Fair Grounds (despite getting disqualified) and then ran into the talented Big Dollar Bill when that one was in top form at Keeneland. I’m not going to hold the turf race against him, as Calhoun now makes some changes out of that race. Silver Dust comes back as a new gelding, turns back in distance, and adds blinkers. Over the past five years, Calhoun is 21 for 101 (21 percent, $2.53 ROI) with horses putting blinkers on in dirt sprints. I like that this runner has shown improved tactical speed since the barn change and I don’t expect him to be too far off the pace here under Ricardo Santana. I’ve always thought this horse possessed more ability than he had been showing in the afternoon, so perhaps he can finally put it all together.
RACE 9: WOW CAT (#4)
This Shuvee actually drew a pretty tough field in comparison to some recent editions of this race. While there are a couple of fillies coming off Grade 1 placings in their recent starts, much of the talk heading into this race centers around Chilean import Wow Cat. This filly defeated colts in four Group 1 races in Chile before being privately purchased and sent to this country. She has been working in company with her stablemate Pacific Wind in the mornings heading into this start and reports have been very positive. She clearly will have no trouble with the distance, as she won Group 1 events going as far as 1 3/8 miles in her native country. This one looks very well meant for her stateside debut and I’m not trying to beat her. The filly that they all need to run down is Farrell, who has obviously improved as a four-year-old. The Pace Projector is predicting that she will be on the lead in a situation favoring the front-runner, and I slightly prefer her to the two fillies exiting the Phipps, Ivy Bell and Pacific Wind. Both appear to be somewhat better going shorter distances.