by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

Now Available: Exclusive Saratoga betting strategies and unlimited TimeformUS PPs for the Saratoga meet!
On every Friday through Sunday at the Saratoga meet, get exclusive access to betting tickets for David Aragona’s Top Plays, including multi-race bet constructions and other exotic tickets. Also get exclusive access to David's Highlight Horses, as well as opinions on all stakes races. Learn more

PICKS

 
Race 1:   2 - 3
Race 2:   6 - 1A - 3 - 4
Race 3:   2 - 4 - 6 - 3
Race 4:   9 - 4 - 6 - 3
Race 5:   2 - 8 - 3 - 4
Race 6:   8 - 5 - 1 - 2
Race 7:   6 - 10 - 1 - 2
Race 8:   8 - 7 - 2 - 5
Race 9:   10 - 3 - 5 - 2
Race 10:   10 - 3 - 9 - 1/1A

TOP PLAYS

 
RACE 4: HELDATGUNPOINT (#9)
There are a bunch of horses coming in from out of town for this race, but many of them have class questions to answer. While I don’t know what to make of the quick turnaround, I want to give Heldatgunpoint one more chance after finishing fourth over this course on Wednesday. His effort two back in New York-bred stakes company was actually quite strong. He was setting a fast pace (indicated by red color-coding in the TimeformUS PPs), and the two horses chasing him in the early going both faded badly in the stretch. I know that some may be turned off by that race four days ago, but he just didn’t get the right trip as he was buried inside early and got out into the clear long after others had started their runs. I think he can follow Bookman into a forward position today and get that up-close stalking trip that he needs.

RACE 5: PARTY CLUB (#2)
It’s certainly possible that one or more of the first-time starters may be live in this spot, but there are a few interesting horses with experience, and I’m often going to default to them in these situations. The second-time starter who interests me most is Party Club. I know she was facing weaker company at Ellis Park in her debut, but she actually ran quite well considering the circumstances. She was off a step slowly, got carried out wide into the far turn, and continued in an overland path thereafter. All things considered, I thought she did well to get up for third, and she proceeded to gallop out past the winner after the wire. D. Wayne Lukas’s runners often need their debuts, and I think she’ll move forward this time.

RACE 6: FOCUS GROUP (#8)
Two runners who are likely to take money are All About Voodoo and Run Time, who come out of the same race at Gulfstream Park. All About Voodoo had the more obvious trouble as he was green and ducking in, but he had his chance in the final eighth and just didn’t have enough to offer. Run Time actually may have had more trouble as he was stymied in traffic from the quarter pole to the eighth pole and showed good acceleration when he got into the clear. I could use both of these runners, but my top pick is Focus Group. This horse has actually run better than it seems in both of his starts. He got a wide trip against the race flow in his debut at Saratoga last summer. Then, in his return, he was just placed too far back early in a race that held together up front. He was really running on strongly across the wire and notably galloped out past everyone about an eighth of a mile after the wire. His dam is a full sister to millionaire marathon specialist Film Maker, so he should appreciate the stretch-out in distance.

RACE 7: WAR BOND (#6)
Neoclassic got the better of War Bond last time, but I think the latter runner is likely to turn the tables this time. Neoclassic worked out an absolutely perfect trip last time, rating off a fast pace. He was helped by the fact that War Bond made the first move, vacating his coveted rail position coming to the top of the stretch. This time, there isn’t much speed in the field, and War Bond possesses the tactical speed to control this race on the front end if Jose Ortiz chooses to be aggressive. And, perhaps most importantly, War Bond is making his first start for Mike Maker, who is probably the best claiming turf trainer in the country. Over the past five years, Maker is 39 for 163 (24 percent, $2.57 ROI) first off the claim in turf routes.

RACE 9: J. S. CHOICE (#10)
This is a very confusing race with horses coming from a multitude of directions and class levels. The conversation has to start with the pace since there is a lot of speed in this group. Kantune, Portando, and Captain Moss all possess speed, but none is as fast as Black Tide, who has a habit of running off from his fields in the early going. I’m hoping the pace is hot because I think that’s what my selection, J. S. Choice, needs in order to be effective here. While he ran fine in his return to the races last time, he just got the wrong trip. Racing without cover, he made a premature four-wide sweep to the lead coming off the far turn and just got tired late. He had been effective coming from farther off the pace as a 2-year-old and actually ran well in some tough spots. I think he can take a step forward here, and he should be a square price.