PICKS

Race 1:   3 - 2 - 6 - 1
Race 2:   1 - 10 - 8 - 7
Race 3:   5 - 1 - 3 - 2
Race 4:   1/1A - 2 - 7 - 5
Race 5:   2 - 9 - 4 - 6
Race 6:   5 - 7 - 2 - 6
Race 7:   4 - 10 - 5 - 3
Race 8:   1 - 3 - 6 - 2
Race 9:   1 - 5 - 8 - 2
Race 10:   2 - 7 - 6 - 1

PLAYS

(Guide - WIN: recommended win/key horse at fair odds; UPGRADE: value horses I picked underneath to consider upgrading in vertical/horizontal wagers; USE: runners to include in vertical exotic wagers with Win horse)

RACE 4: G MUNNING (#1A)

There are many ways to go in this wide open NY-bred allowance race, and I wanted to search for some prices. I acknowledge that horses like #5 Street Tsar, #7 Tap’n de Bank, and #8 Unique Unions can win, but their form is exposed and I thought there were some more interesting options. I wish that Saffie Joseph hadn’t entered both #1 Dr. Blute and #1A G Munning as a coupled entry, since they’re both interesting individually. I’m actually a bit more intrigued by G Munning, who would have been the bigger price as a solo betting interest. This horse had shown plenty of ability in his first start and then just seemed to go the wrong way for John Kimmel. He’s been working well since switching into the Saffie Joseph barn and is a player here if he can recapture his prior form. I Hhad originally picked him second to Majority Partner, but I'm happy to elevate this entry after that one scratched. Another horse looking to get back on track is #2 Bold Journey, who actually finished second to G Munning in that November maiden event at Aqueduct. He ran well in his next two starts before something seemed to go awry with him in the Gotham. He’s been off for a few months and is a candidate to bounce back here.

WIN: #1A G Munning, at 7-2 or greater
USE: 2

RACE 5: COMMUNITY ADJUSTED (#2)

I’m a little skeptical of possible favorite #6 Capital Structure, who seeks to get back on track in her second start off the layoff for Chad Brown. This mare had plenty of ability when she was younger, but she’s never really panned out and has gotten difficult to ride. She’s shown a habit of getting too rank in her recent starts, which has detracted from her ability to finish. I wonder if the connections will experiment with different tactics this time after restraining her off the pace in her return. Regardless, she’s run out of chances for me. #9 Baby Blythe is a little more appealing as she steps up in class and stretches out in distance. I obviously wouldn’t put too much stock in her last win, when she won a match race. However, she had shown real ability up here when breaking her maiden last summer. I won’t hold the Jockey Club Oaks against her, as she got way too rank in the early stages that day. I don’t mind her going this distance, but she does need to work out a trip from this outside draw. I think both Christophe Clement trainees are a little interesting. #4 Creative Cairo is the one that attracts Joel Rosario, so she might take some money on that basis alone. She was a convincing winner going this distance at Laurel last time and may be ready for this step up in class. Yet my top pick is Clement’s other runner #2 Community Adjusted. She’s never gone this far, but I’ve always thought that added ground would benefit this filly. She broke her maiden going 10 furlongs last year, and hasn’t had the opportunity to stretch out since then. She got the right trip last time to win her N1X condition, but she displayed an improved turn of foot through the lane and was running strongly through the wire. I like the 1 3/8 miles for her and she could fly under the radar.

WIN: #2 Community Adjusted, at 6-1 or greater
USE: 4,9

RACE 6: PRANK (#5)

I’m not really expecting this pick to be a playable price, but I will nevertheless share some notes on #5 Prank, who looks like a potentially special 2-year-old filly. This $500k yearling purchase is by 16% debut sire Into Mischief out of a dam who won twice sprinting on dirt. She’s produced 2 winners from as many foals to race, the best of those being G1 Belmont Stakes winner Mo Donegal. Todd Pletcher is 18 for 93 (19%, $1.57 ROI) with 2-year-old first time starters in Saratoga dirt sprints over the past 5 years, and has done particularly well over the past 3 seasons. Watching her recent workouts, she looks nothing like her half-brother, taking much more after the Into Mischief line. She always had the measure of an unraced stablemate in that July 11 drill. And then she broke well on July 24, and was always going easily while attempting to pull away from another stablemate. To my eye, this filly oozes talent and I expect her to win. The others that interest me are #2 Check Engine Light and #7 My Betsy. The former comes from the female family of Arrogate and goes out for Jorge Abreu, who is typically dangerous with his first time starters. My Betsy is bred to be quicker and shows a fast gate work last week, which is sometimes meaningful for the Mott barn. This is definitely a race where you want to watch the board.

WIN: #5 Prank, at 3-2 or greater

RACE 7: OCALA DREAM (#4)

This optional claimer is incredibly wide open, as you can make some kind of case for just about every runner in the field. #5 Soldier Rising could go favored for Christophe Clement off his runner-up finish to Channel Maker in the Grand Couturier last time. His form makes him pretty logical in this spot, but he’s not the most reliable win candidate. This gelding definitely has some hang in him, often coming out of the losing side of close decisions. Chad Brown has entered a pair in here, both of whom are contenders. I prefer #10 Flop Shot, who has the tactical speed to work out a favorable trip in this spot. He’s another who had some trouble breaking through with a victory when he first arrived in Chad Brown’s barn, but he’s gradually improved and was best against allowance company back in April. I’m going in a different direction with #4 Ocala Dream. This NY-bred put in a huge effort second off the layoff to win the Kingston quite convincingly two back at Belmont. He beat some high quality rivals that day, powering away from the field at a big price. He subsequently tried this allowance level against open company last time and the result was the polar opposite, as he never traveled well, checking in last. However, the pace of that one-mile affair may have been too quick for him, as he had to be asked to keep up from a long way out. He’s never gone 1 3/16 miles, but I think he could appreciate this stretch-out, as he figures to get a more comfortable trip stalking a moderate early tempo.

WIN: #4 Ocala Dream, at 6-1 or greater
USE: 1,3,5,10

RACE 8: L’IMPERATOR (#1)

This Bowling Green bring together a group of turf marathoners who all seem to struggle with consistency. Leading that charge is #2 Arklow, who has been a mainstay in these turf stakes for several years. However, he’s coming off a somewhat lackluster season last year and it feels like he may be losing a step or two with age. He’s run well off layoffs in the past, but he also tends to take money and that figures to be the case again with Irad Ortiz aboard. I wouldn’t want him at any kind of short price. #3 Highland Chief is arguably the one to beat after winning the Grade 1 Man O’ War at Belmont, defeating Gufo and Yibir. Some may assert that he regressed last time in the Manhattan, but I actually thought he ran pretty well to be fourth there against the best group of American turf horses assembled anywhere this year. The slight stretch-out will only help, and he figures to work out a favorable stalking trip. Chad Brown has entered a pair of runners, and I think they’re both contenders. Most will view #6 Rockemperor as the stronger of his two participants, and he’s certainly good enough to win a race like this when he’s on his game. However, he’s just not that reliable to show up from race to race. I’m actually more interested in #1 L’Imperator at a better price. He was aided by a boggy, speed-favoring turf course when he won the Fort Marcy two back. Yet I don’t want to just overlook his effort in the Manhattan where he ran deceptively well despite encountering traffic in the lane. I believe he wants the added ground, and he figures to go back to front-running tactics in this paceless affair. Chad Brown and Manny Franco have teamed up for winners at nice prices over the past few seasons, and this one figures to offer value.

WIN: #1 L'Imperator, at 7-2 or greater
USE: 3

RACE 9: PINEHURST (#1)

The headliner in this Grade 2 Amsterdam is last year’s two-year-old champion #7 Corniche, who is seeking to keep his undefeated record intact as he makes his sophomore debut. However, this colt has many questions to answer off the layoff. He’s been transferred away from Bob Baffert into Todd Pletcher’s barn, and has gotten an awfully late start to his season with little explanation. He clearly had talent last year, but he took advantage of an unusually weak Breeders’ Cup Juvenile field. This is an appropriate distance at which to return, but I just don’t like the way he’s training into this race. He was decidedly second best in a workout with Next on July 16 and continued to look a little dull in that most recent July 24 work. I much prefer the other ex-Baffert trainee in this field. #1 Pinehurst has recently joined the John Terranova stable, but he’s done almost all of his training for this in California under Sean McCarthy, and recently Bob Baffert, who had him for all of his prior races. He showed ability sprinting as a 2-year-old, winning the G1 Del Mar Futurity last summer. I don’t care so much about his races overseas, but he’s trained forwardly at Santa Anita, and looked best in company with older allowance type Three Jokers in that recent Saratoga drill. The other horse that I want to use prominently is recent debut winner #5 Accretive. This is a big step up in class, but he ran a speed figure that makes him competitive here and appears to be training very well out of that victory. #8 My Prankster is also a little interesting as a late threat if this pace comes apart, which seems like a possibility.

WIN: #1 Pinehurst, at 4-1 or greater
USE: 5,8

RACE 10: STEERAGE (#2)

I wanted to steer clear of the horses coming out of that July 8 race at this level. It came up on the slow side and most of the runners who did well in that spot have already had their chances. The one runner I’d consider coming out of that race is #6 Majestic Johnson, who goes out for Linda Rice. This barn tends to do better once their runners have had a start, so he has a right to improve. Yet I was most interested in some others. #7 Sharp Sensation is a little intriguing as he returns to the NYRA circuit for new connections. I don’t think he ran as poorly as it seems last time at Delaware, and he was competitive at this level in his two prior starts. This is the same trainer/jockey combination that delivered Runningwscissors at a big price during the Belmont meet, and I think this horse is a good fit in this spot. My top pick is #2 Steerage. He’s coming out of a pretty strong race at this level, won by Relate in that one’s turf debut. He set an honest pace and just got tired in the stretch. He was also setting the pace along the inside on the inner turf course during a time when I don’t think you wanted to be on the rail. The cutback to 5 1/2 furlongs figures to suit him, and he should be a square price with low-percentage rider Jalon Samuel in the irons. His trainer Ray Handal is in the midst of an outstanding season, clicking with a $2.32 ROI at NYRA in 2022.

WIN: #2 Steerage, at 5-1 or greater
UPGRADE: #7 Sharp Sensation, at 6-1 or greater