by David Aragona
Get the wagering strategy for this card in this year’s TimeformUS Saratoga Betting Strategies package, which includes PPs for each day of the meet, exclusive access to the daily Highlight Horse, multi-race ticket constructions, and additional analysis of every stakes race at the meet. More info ›
Race 1: 5 - 2 - 8 - 6
Race 2: 8 - 2 - 1 - 4
Race 3: 5 - 3 - 6 - 4
Race 4: 8 - 7 - 4 - 2
Race 5: 10 - 6 - 4 - 3
Race 6: 3 - 6 - 4 - 2
Race 7: 2 - 6 - 8 - 3
Race 8: 1 - 10 - 5 - 7
Race 9: 2 - 5 - 7 - 3
Race 10: 5 - 6 - 4 - 7
Race 11: 6 - 2 - 3 - 5
Race 12: 2 - 11 - 5 - 1
RACE 1: MORE THUNDER (#5)
Summer Sangria figures to go off as the favorite given her positive turf experience. She’s one of two fillies entered against the boys, and she also faced males in that encouraging debut. She carved out some fast fractions in a race fell apart in the late stages, so she deserves extra credit for hanging around for second. However, I’m not sure that was a field of much quality since winner Frosted Rose returned to be 7th in a stakes while regressing 14 points on the TimeformUS Speed Figure scale. Wesley Ward is better first time out, but this obvious contender is nevertheless the horse to beat. Yet I’m intrigued by a couple of the first time turfers. One of those is Montana Man. Constitution is off to an excellent start as a sire, though we haven’t see much of his progeny on turf yet. The dam was a 4-time turf winner who won a stakes on this surface, and 3 of her 4 foals to try the turf have won on grass. This colt didn’t show much in his debut on dirt, but certainly has a right to move forward on the surface switch. He’ll be a part of my play, but my top pick is fellow first time turfer More Thunder. This colt actually went through sales ring 3 times earlier this year, drilling a furlong at three separate 2-year-old in training sales, so he’s probably more seasoned than his record indicates. Goldencents is 12% with first time turfers and 18% with turf starters overall. The dam was 1-for-24 on turf and was probably best on that surface. This is her first foal and there isn't much going on in the 2nd generation, though there is enough pedigree evidence to suggest he can run on turf. Furthermore, Steve Klesaris is 7-for-27 (26%, $3.39 ROI) with second time starting maidens over the past 5 years.
RACE 4: I’LLHANDALTHECASH (#8)
I suppose My Galina is the horse to beat as she drops out of stakes company into this N1X allowance race. Her connections got a little ambitious following her impressive debut, with good reason, but she failed to step forward against tougher company. If the class relief allows her to regain the form that we saw in that initial run, she’s going to be a handful here. However, her last race has to be somewhat concerning. Perhaps she’s a need-the-lead type who reacted badly to getting outrun and that’s why she folded so readily. Yet Honey I’m Good and Science Fiction also possess potent early speed, so she could be under the gun from the start. I’m taking a shot against her with I’llhandalthecash, who I’m hoping can revert to the stalking tactics that worked so well for her two back. She was pretty aggressive last time, dueling through fast fractions before tiring late. Yet she still beat the horse with whom she was battling early by a long way, and that race was dominated by closers. Prior to that she had run very well to break her maiden over Bye Bye Nicky, the same horse that My Galina defeated in her debut. This filly is certainly quick enough to handle the 5 1/2 furlongs, and I think she’ll have another step forward in her if Manny Franco gives her a slightly more conservative ride.
RACE 8: DAY DAYENU (#1)
There are a number of intriguing maiden races for 2-year-olds on Sunday at Saratoga, and this one seems to contain some fillies of quality. A few of those that have run have hinted at possessing some ability. That group is led by Buxom Beast, who was a solid fourth in the Schuylerville during the first week of the meet. She has a right to step forward second time out, but I prefer first-time starters. The one that figures to attract the most attention is the $1.2 million yearling purchase Orsay, a daughter of Triple Crown winner American Pharoah out of the multiple Grade 1-winning mare Life At Ten. Chad Brown can certainly win with a well-meant first time starter, but I haven’t been thrilled with the workouts that I’ve seen from this filly. She might need a start, so I prefer some others. Always A Queen is worth considering for Todd Pletcher, who has been far more successful with his juveniles at this meet than during the past two years. This daughter of Belmont Stakes winner Tonalist is out of the Grade 1-placed dirt router Danette, so she may ultimately prefer more ground than she gets here. My top pick is Day Dayenu, who debuts for Jorge Abreu. Since he started training, Abreu has a record of 11-5-3-0 (45% winners, $4.34 ROI) with first time starters on the dirt. Day Dayenu is certainly bred to be precocious, being a daughter of Into Mischief. She looked great working a furlong in 10 2/5 seconds at the Fasig-Tipton Gulfstream sale earlier this year, and she recently has trained very well. On Aug. 7, she easily outworked the older Freaky Styley, who earned a 95 TimeformUS Speed Figure in his debut.
RACE 9: HERE COMES JACKIE (#2)
Connectivity figures to go off as the favorite in this spot off that visually impressive score last time out. That was her final start for the Chad Brown barn, since she’s now making her first start off the claim for Linda Rice. While this is hardly a negative trainer switch, I thought this filly took advantage of a pretty weak field in that lower-level claiming event last time. She was striding out well through the final quarter mile, but I don’t have a ton of confidence that she’s going to run as well here given her prior inconsistency. I’m interested in both horses dropping out of the allowance race won by Passing Out on August 9. That was a race which featured a strong pace that fell apart in the late stages, so both Enjay’s Brass and Dance Till Dawn deserve credit for running well while chasing and setting the pace, respectively. Enjay’s Brass is particularly intriguing since she’s obviously stepped forward on turf and she may not yet garner the respect she deserves for those last two efforts against better company. I’m using all of these horses, but my top pick is Here Comes Jackie. She’s had more chances than anyone else in this field, having already made 14 starts. Yet she seems to have benefited from that experience, since she’s just now peaking in the summer of her 3-year-old season. This is actually a slight drop in class for her, since she’s been facing older horses in three of her last four starts. I thought she ran on well after a slight stumble at the start two back and I can excuse her loss last time in a race dominated on the front end. She gets a positive rider switch and Mike Dini has been sending live runners to Saratoga.
RACE 10: CATHY NAZ (#5)
The Pace Projector isn’t predicting a fast pace, but I think there are a number of speeds in this field who could potentially hook up on the front end. Smoken Deb appears to be a need-the-lead type, while Carrizo and Olive Kat have also done their best work when able to make the front. Furthermore, horses like Excess Capacity and Subsidiary have also flashed good early zip on occasion. Of those, Carrizo is probably the strongest contender, and she has shown the ability to stalk the pace. She exploded with a huge victory for Danny Gargan two back, though she didn’t disgrace herself off the claim for David Cannizzo last time out. If she maintains that form here, she’s going to be a handful here. However, I’m somewhat concerned that the pace could come apart, so I want to find a capable closer. I’m hoping that could turn out to be Cathy Naz. I know she looks a bit slower than the main contenders, but she might get the perfect trip in this spot. She hasn’t faced ideal pace situations in many of her recent starts. That was especially the case last time when she leapt up at the start and left the stalls a few lengths behind the rest of the field. She passed some tiring runners late, but she never had a chance to make a major impact in a race that was dominated on the front end. The Bond barn has been having a strong meet and I would expect this filly to be running on well in the late stages.
RACE 11: RISKY MISCHIEF (#6)
This Spinaway drew a fantastic field of promising 2-year-old fillies. Frank’s Rockette leads the list of contenders after finishing an unfortunate second in the Adirondack as the 3-5 favorite. The filly who defeated her, Perfect Alibi, is back in the lineup as well, but one would have to imagine that Frank’s Rockette has a chance to turn the tables if both get clean trips. They each were held up in traffic coming to the quarter pole last time, but Frank’s Rockette got slammed between horses at the three-sixteenths pole, losing momentum while the eventual winner was able to get the jump on her. This Bill Mott filly clearly has a ton of ability, but I fear that you’re going to take the worst of it in the value department once again with everyone seeing that trouble. There are a number of fillies exiting maiden races who must be considered. Figure of Speech is one to take seriously after she easily handled a mediocre field on debut. She has since trained very well, most recently holding her own in company with the top 3-yearold Guarana on Aug. 25. I would also use Mundaye Call, who comes into this as a maiden. She was heavily supported in her debut and ran a winning race, as she made a decisive move to the lead at the top of the stretch. However, she got tired late and drifted inside, which was not the place to be on August 11. I’m using all of these, but I want to take a shot with a different horse. Risky Mischief only beat New York-breds in her unveiling, but I loved the way she did it. She didn’t break that sharply from the rail, but she easily recovered to make the front and simply dominated. She set very fast fractions and was geared down late while running over a very tiring, sealed strip. Horses have come back to run well out of that race, so the 88 TimeformUS Speed Figure could arguably be higher. I think she stacks up well against these open foes, and she could be the main speed from the outside this time.