by David Aragona
Race 1: 4 - 8 - 2 - 7
Race 2: 6 - 4 - 3 - 5
Race 3: 1 - 5 - 2 - 3
Race 4: 2 - 1 - 4 - 10
Race 5: 6 - 8 - 12 - 3
Race 6: 2 - 8 - 1 - 6
Race 7: 9 - 7 - 4 - 8
Race 8: 2 - 3 - 1 - 8
Race 9: 8 - 5 - 6 - 3
Race 10: 3 - 4 - 8 - 6
Race 11: 1 - 5 - 4 - 2
Race 12: 1 - 10 - 9 - 4
RACE 2: BETTOR BANK ON IT (#6)
In these New York-bred turf sprints, you can often find some interesting price plays among the first time starters. Especially in this particular group, none of the trainers involved have stellar records in this situation and, though a few horses have plenty of turf pedigree, none are bred to be stars. I suppose the duo sent out by Jeremiah Englehart will take some money. Beach Front is the one with more pedigree, and he appears to have some fast workouts leading into this. I would also use Exchange Fever for George Weaver, as he is one of the few conditioners that has pretty good stats in this situation. However, both of those runners are pretty obvious and I want to look outside the box. The one that intrigues me most is Bettor Bank On It, who goes out for Ed Barker. These connections are not known for their prowess with first time starters, nor have they had a ton of turf success. However, I do get the sense that this one may have some ability. He sold for only $7,000 in June, but this colt actually worked a nice 10 1/5-second furlong at that sale, displaying a big stride that is typical of the progeny of his grandsire Speightstown. While he worked fast, his legs did appear to be a bit crooked in that drill, so I can see why he didn’t attract a hefty sum. Since then, he’s worked forwardly in the morning, and he appeared to get out of the gate well in a recent drill. He’s bred to handle the turf, since his dam was a turf winner and she has already produced a foal that won on the lawn.
RACE 4: DOVEY LOVEY (#2)
I think this is one of the most interesting races on the card, since you have some very well-bred first time starters facing off against a bunch of fillies with experience, many of whom stand to really improve out of their debuts. Among those firsters, Graceful Princess is likely to attract plenty of attention as the daughter of 2011 Horse of the Year and Woodward winner Havre de Grace. Based upon that pedigree, she’s bred to be a star, and she’s shown a hint of ability in the mornings for Ralph Nicks, who is certainly capable of getting a firster ready to win its debut. I’m using her, but this is a very tough spot. Todd Pletcher sends out Off Topic, who doesn’t have the stellar pedigree of the aforementioned filly, but nevertheless appears to be working well. They’re intriguing players in this spot, but I’m interested in the second-time starters. Dance Club closed well in her debut after getting squeezed back after the break, and she galloped out well beyond the wire. She’s bred to improve with distance as a daughter of Storm Flag Flying. Dovey Lovey doesn’t have much pedigree, but I thought her debut was very encouraging. She had the misfortune of running into one of the best 2-year-old fillies to debut at this meet, Feedback, but she closed resolutely into a pace that mostly held together, despite the fact that Joel Rosario dropped his whip around the turn. I like that she already has experience going an elongated sprint distance, and she figures to go off at a better price than some of the other second time starters in this group.
RACE 5: FRONT ROW DEBBIE (#6)
Chad Brown has the probable favorite as he sends out Sweet Connie Girl from the far-outside post position. She’s theoretically getting some slight class relief after facing starter-allowance company in her last two starts, but it’s not like this is a particularly easy spot. She’s obviously improved as a 4-year-old, but I’m a bit reticent to take her at a short price from this outside draw. She faces a real rival in She Doesn’t Mind, who goes out for Brown’s former assistant Jorge Abreu. I thought she ran very well in her first start for this barn, stalking the pace three wide before just getting cut down by the much-the-best winner. She was close to the pace that day, but there’s far more early speed in this field. I’m using her, but I’m actually interested in another horse out of that Aug. 10 race. Front Row Debbie closed for fourth in that spot, but I didn’t think she had the best trip. She found herself in decent position early but then appeared to get shuffled back around the far turn as others made their moves, eventually winding up nearly last at the quarter pole. Considering that she lost all her momentum, I thought she actually put in a good late run to be fourth. Going back to last winter at Gulfstream, this mare was running races that would make her very competitive against this bunch. I liked the way she finished when she won her maiden back in February, and she might have been placed a bit too ambitiously in most of her Kentucky starts. It seems likely that she’ll get a faster pace to close into this time.
RACE 8: SPECTACULAR PLUM (#2)
A couple of contenders in this spot are exiting the fifth race on July 11. Congruity won that race, but he was the beneficiary of favorable circumstances. There was absolutely no pace competition for him, and he was able to amble along on the front end through pedestrian fractions. Predictably, no one could pass him in the lane given that early advantage. This time, he figures to get some company up front from Meilleur. I prefer the other runner out of that race. Spectacular Plum was an interesting contender going into that July 11 spot, as he had run deceptively well in his recent starts at Monmouth. He was badly pace-compromised on May 26 in a race dominated on the front end, and then he was hindered by a very wide trip on June 16. Both of those starts came against older rivals, and I thought he put forth a very encouraging effort when placed back with straight 3-year-olds two back, despite a less-than-ideal setup. Not only was Spectacular Plum thwarted by the dynamics of that race, but I also thought he spent too much time losing position racing down on the rail. John Velazquez could never seem to get him into a position where he could build momentum, ultimately finding himself last on the rail at the top of the stretch. Considering that disadvantage, I thought Spectacular Plum rallied valiantly up the inside in the final eighth of a mile to nearly get up for second. I don’t care about the dirt race last time, and he draws a good inside post position for this race.
RACE 10: SOWER (#3)
It may not be a Grade 1 like its August counterpart, the Test, but this Prioress drew a field that is just as rich in quality. Mia Mischief is the horse to beat off her incredibly game second place finish in that race. It was a nice rebound off her disappointing loss in the Victory Ride back in June, where she just didn’t show up for some reason. Aside from that one poor effort, she has run well in all of her races. The slight cutback to 6 furlongs figures to help her and I cannot leave her out of the mix. Dream Tree is going to attract plenty of support as she returns from the layoff for the ever-dangerous combination of Bob Baffert and Mike Smith. She’s never lost through 4 career starts, but she will have to be ready to put in a career-best effort to compete with these seasoned fillies off such an extended break. While she defeated Midnight Bisou in two starts sprinting, I’m not convinced that she’s actually best going this short, and it’s possible that she could get outrun in the early portion of this race. She clearly has ability, but I’m somewhat against her at a short price. I’m using these fillies, but the one that I want to bet is Sower. In a race where the aforementioned horses figure to go off at relatively short prices, I wonder if Sower might be one that flies under the radar. This filly has done nothing wrong in her four career starts. While she lost to Mia Mischief and Classy Act in the Victory Ride, it’s easy to forget how well she ran in that race. She wasn’t that far off the taxing pace of the top two in the early going and she made a menacing run to briefly take the lead in the stretch before flattening out. That race came over 6 1/2 furlongs, and I think she’s going to appreciate this slight cutback to 6 furlongs more than any of her rivals. The Pace Projector shows her battling for the lead, but I think they will be content to let her rate once again, since she did it so well in the Victory Ride. She appears to be training into this race in spectacular fashion. I loved her recent move on Aug. 25, in which she just floated through the stretch under no encouragement to record the bullet. At anything close to her morning line price of 8-1, I think she’s a great bet.
RACE 11: EXCELLENT SUNSET (#1)
It’s difficult to know who will be favored in this confusing race. I would assume that bettors will gravitate toward Out of Trouble merely because she’s shown a fondness for winning races. She’s actually kept some decent company when facing New York-breds, but she’s going to get bet down off her lopsided dirt win last time. Jaunt has run well enough to win this race, but she’s also had plenty of chances. She’s come back as a better 4-year-old this year, but I still feel that she may find someone to beat her. I want to go for a new face, and the one who interests me most is Excellent Sunset. She makes her second start for Brendan Walsh after winning her maiden in her U.S. debut at Ellis Park last time. While it’s fair to be skeptical of horses shipping in from that jurisdiction in general, this filly is actually coming out of a good race. The runner-up that day, Pachinko, is a solid Brad Cox-trained Juddmonte runner who returned to win her next start by more than five lengths with an improved speed figure. Pachinko had a huge pace advantage in that July 4 race, as she set slow fractions and sprinted home. If those closing splits are correct, Excellent Sunset had no business running her down from off the pace. The two drew well clear of the rest of the field as Excellent Sunset leveled off beautifully in the last eighth of a mile, clocked in an amazing 11 seconds flat. The 107 TimeformUS Speed Figure that she earned for that performance (six points higher than Pachinko’s number) illustrates how she beat dynamics, as the number is 10 points higher than the raw final figure of 97 – in other words, that’s 10 bonus points when pace is factored into the figure. Walsh has solid numbers off maiden wins on turf, and I have a feeling that this one is going to outrun her odds.