by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona
Now Available: Exclusive Saratoga betting strategies and unlimited TimeformUS PPs for the Saratoga meet!
On every Friday through Sunday at the Saratoga meet, get exclusive access to betting tickets for David Aragona’s Top Plays, including multi-race bet constructions and other exotic tickets. Also get exclusive access to David's Highlight Horses, as well as opinions on all stakes races. Learn more
Race 1: 4 - 1 - 2 - 5
Race 2: 2 - 1A - 12 - 11
Race 3: 5 - 1 - 6 - 2
Race 4: 3 - 6 - 7 - 2
Race 5: 5 - 8 - 3 - 7
Race 6: 5 - 1A - 13 - 7
Race 7: 9 - 3 - 11 - 10
Race 8: 10 - 2 - 7 - 1/1A
Race 9: 1 - 7 - 4 - 9
Race 10: 3 - 4 - 6 - 9
Race 11: 12 - 9 - 6 - 1
RACE 2: HALCYON (#2)
With this race coming off the turf and moving out to 9 furlongs, Spa Treatment is clearly the horse to beat. If she can run back to her lone dirt route effort from Aqueduct over the winter, she will be awfully tough for this field to beat. That said, she is drawn in the far-outside slot, which is a disadvantage at this distance. While I’m not interested in the horses that are going to get bet off positive turf form, I am interested in a runner that hasn’t run all that well on turf. Halcyon hasn’t shown much in either of her two starts, but I wonder if she might not really be a turf horse. Her dam was a grass stakes winner, but she has now produced two other foals to race and both of those have excelled on dirt, not turf. She showed improved speed last time, and there isn’t much early zip in this field. Joel Rosario may try to lead them all the way at a price.
RACE 4: SHORT KAKES (#3)
This race centers around the runners dropping out of tougher spots. Anna Rae gets some needed class relief, but I haven’t loved any of her recent starts and think she’s beatable at a short price. Todd Pletcher has a pair of runners in here, and there are some reasons to consider both of them. However, I want to go in a different direction and take a shot with Short Kakes at a better price. While it may not seem like it at first glance, I actually think this filly will appreciate the turn-back in distance. She seems to handle both dirt and turf, and I think it was the distance that was preventing her from doing her best work in recent starts. She actually ran quite well in her last dirt start after setting a solid early pace. There isn’t much speed in this field, and the Pace Projector is predicting she will be on or near the lead in a situation favoring the front-runners.
RACE 6: INFIELD IS IN (#5)
The focus of this race will be on the Main Track Only entrants now that it has been moved to the main track at seven furlongs. The most intriguing of those is Transfer Pricing, whose dam was a mildly successful dirt sprinter. He’s been working well over the main track here, and appears to be well-meant for this surface. There are two horses coming out of the seventh race on August 12. The only likely to take the most money is MTO Lone Sailor. After all, he was making his debut that day and has a right to move forward in his second start. However, the runner that actually had the tough trip in that race was Infield Is In, who was eliminated at the top of the stretch when a rival to his inside bore out badly and carried him into the center of the track. Going back to this colt’s debut, he didn’t run that badly behind Psychoanalyze, who will be in the Hopeful on Monday. If he can improve off that effort, he has a real shot in what appears to be a mediocre field. The low-profile connections will ensure a generous price.
RACE 8: BRIDE STREET (#10)
The deserving favorite in this race is Ladies Day, who has run fine at the N1X allowance level recently without really threatening to win any of those races. She handled a sloppy track well enough in her career debut at the Spa last summer and just makes plenty of sense in this race. Her only flaw is her lack of early speed, which could become an issue in a race that features few front-runners. For that reason, I want to take a shot against her with Bride Street. I know Kiaran McLaughlin does not have strong numbers with horses returning from layoffs in dirt sprints, but I think this filly finds herself in the right spot this afternoon. She won her career debut sprinting on dirt, and then encountered adverse circumstances in her next two starts. She was pinched back at the start and forced to rate over an inside speed biased track on January 14, and then she got an impossible wide trip going a distance that is likely too far for her on February 25. I think Joel Rosario will be looking to send her right out to the front today, and I think she can take this field all the way if she runs back to her debut effort.
RACE 9: STORMY’S SONG (#1)
There is other speed in this race, but if Stormy’s Song breaks well this time, she is supposed to find herself on the early lead. She just lost all chance at the start last time when she turned her head just as the gates open, costing herself a few lengths of position. She never appeared comfortable racing at the back of the pack on a day when the main track at Saratoga appeared to be favoring front-runners (indicated by the red color-coding Race Rating in PPs). Now she’s drawn the rail and Joel Rosario has to send her this time. If she runs back to her debut, in which she crushed a field of maidens after setting swift early fractions, I think she’ll be tough to run down.
RACE 10: GOLDEN MISCHIEF (#3)
There is a ton of early speed in this Prioress, so it’s no surprise that the Pace Projector is predicting a fast early pace. Horses like Student Body, Sister Kan, Royal Inheritance, and Downtown Mama are all coming into the race off solid wire-to-wire wins, but they are going to face a much more difficult scenario here. Oddly enough, there are very few closers in the race, which makes Golden Mischief all the more appealing. She is one of the only fillies in the field that has shown the ability to rate well off the pace and put in a strong stretch bid. She’s been kept closer to the early paces in her recent starts, but that’s because she’s been in some short fields that haven’t featured much early speed. This time, she can settle at the back and make one run, just as she did when running down today’s rival Vertical Oak as a 2-year-old.