by David Aragona
 

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PICKS

 
Race 1:   7 - 4 - 3 - 6
Race 2:   5 - 10 - 9 - 11
Race 3:   9 - 7 - 10 - 4
Race 4:   3 - 5 - 4 - 7
Race 5:   8 - 1/1A - 3 - 9
Race 6:   3 - 12 - 11 - 9
Race 7:   6 - 2 - 8 - 1
Race 8:   4 - 3 - 8 - 5
Race 9:   8 - 11 - 7 - 2
Race 10:   5 - 2 - 9 - 3
Race 11:   7 - 3 - 1 - 5
Race 12:   1 - 6 - 8 - 3

PLAYS

 
RACE 3: BALINESE (#9)
Coalition Building is obviously the horse to beat as a likely heavy favorite in this $40k maiden claimer. She was compromised by a slow pace last time when only managing to get up for third at the $75k level. The potential for a quicker pace in this spot will help her, but that loss marked the fifth time in a row that she’s been defeated as the favorite. She’s generally had good trips in most of her other starts and her form is mostly exposed, so I didn’t want to take yet another short price on her. If Coalition Building loses, I think it’s most likely going to be done by a horse who gets the jump on her once again. I’m hoping that can be Balinese, who returns from a layoff and makes her 3-year-old debut for Phil Serpe. Notably, she is the only horse in this race who is not risked for the $40k tag, as her connections had the optional to withhold the claiming price due to the fact that she last raced for the same tag over 6 months ago. Both of those prior starts came over the Tapeta surface at Woodbine and I thought she ran decently in both starts. She chased a fast pace in her debut and then got the wrong trip next time when going 4-wide all the way around the turn in a race dominated by rail runners. She shouldn’t mind the switch to turf as a half-sister to Futurity winner Uncle Benny. I think it’s also meaningful that Luis Saez takes the mount for this low-profile barn, as he figures to be aggressive in a race with a murky pace scenario.

Win: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 7,10
 

RACE 6: FAIR HAIRED BOY (#3)
A couple of horses who could attract support here are both coming off maiden victories. Clever Fellow may go favored for Chad Brown after finally making it the winner’s circle last time. However, he needed a perfect trip as the odds-on favorite, and I’m not sure he actually ran any better than the runner-up in that spot, who got a perfect trip. I think he’s stepping up to face much tougher company here. Caribbean Gold ran a faster speed figure last time beating open company in his maiden score. He set a legitimate pace and did well to hold on. However, he won at a time when Mike Maker was very hot at the start of the meet, and he’s since cooled down. I’m interested in a pair of bigger prices. The longer of the two figures to be Public Information, who was running races that would make him competitive here when he was in Chad Brown’s stable two and three back. He regressed off the claim for Wayne Potts last time, but I thought he got a poor ride, ridden far too aggressively in the first furlong. Now he’s switched to Jorge Abreu, a much more productive turf trainer. My top pick is Fair Haired Boy. I tried this horse last time and thought he was simply second-best when taking plenty of money at this level. However, I want to give him another shot third off the layoff. He was competing over a yielding turf course last time and I think he’ll appreciate getting back on firm ground here. Furthermore, he’s trained well out of that race and he’s drawn towards the inside in a race where all of the others I’m considering have wide post positions. The Saffie Joseph barn has been cold all meet long, but this is one of the few horses that actually ran well for this stable.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 9,10,11,12
Trifecta: 3 with 11,12 with 4,9,10,11,12
 

RACE 7: SUMMER SNOW (#6)
Perhaps Classic Lynne will attract some support as the only runner with experience in this field. She ran pretty well in her turf debut, bounced around late in a roughly run race. She’s by Classic Empire, so I don’t mind the switch to dirt. Yet I do think there are a couple of potentially talented firsters in here. Classy Edition, another daughter of Classic Empire, sold for $550k at Fasig-Tipton after working a furlong in 10 1/5. This Chester and Mary Broman homebred is out of the solid mare Newbie, making her a half-sister to their stakes winner Newly Minted. This filly has been training very well for Todd Pletcher, whose juveniles have been showing up at this Saratoga meet. She’s the one to beat, but I’m interested in Summer Snow for Mark Hennig. This homebred is out of stakes-placed dirt sprinter Blithely, who raced for these same connections. Hennig is a strong 9 for 45 (20%, $4.13 ROI) with 2-year-old firsters in dirt sprints over the past 5 years. She’s been working in company with Chasing Artemis, who debuts against open company in the 8th race, and she’s been outworking that one. It appears that she has some ability for a barn that can win on debut.

Win: 6
Exacta Box: 2,6
 

RACE 8: TEXIAN (#4)
Jester Calls Nojoy figures to be pretty tough for this group to handle as she makes the second start of her career. She showed excellent early speed in her debut and fought on valiantly through the stretch, just succumbing to the more experienced Gimmick in the late stages. She had worked well leading up to that race and ran to expectations. She obviously wouldn’t need to improve much to beat this group, and her experience should be an advantage going this 7-furlong distance. Todd Pletcher is 3 for 18 (17%, $1.22 ROI) with 2-year-old maiden second time starters on dirt at Saratoga over 5 years. And picking up the leading rider at the meet certainly doesn’t hurt. I’m hardly against her, especially since none of the firsters in this race appear to be training particularly well. However, I am interested in some other runners with experience who could get dismissed at bigger prices. Pletcher’s other filly Amani’s Image is certainly one to consider after she raced a bit greenly in her debut. She’s bred to stretch out, and has apparently trained well out of that unveiling. I’d use her, but I’m most interested in Texian at what could be a bigger price. This filly got an educational run in the debut, as she really wasn’t asked for much until the late stages by Jose Ortiz. That was obviously a tough spot, as she and most of the others in that field were no match for the talented Echo Zulu, the expected favorite in the Spinaway later on this card. She didn’t take much money that day, so perhaps there will be more intention this time. Her dam was a multiple dirt route winner, so she should handle the added ground. Plus, Shug McGaughey is 6 for 28 (21%, $2.34 ROI) with 2-year-old maiden second time starters on dirt over the past 5 years.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 3,5,8
 

RACE 9: THEODORA GRACE (#8)
This starter allowance seems totally wide open, so pace and trips could be key factors. Kemba is perhaps the runner coming in with the best turf form, but it’s hard to see her working out the right trip unless some other speeds take back. Shining Colors and Hohohoho have plenty of speed to her inside and Mopolka figures to be sending from the outside. Kemba has done her best running when she controls the pace and she may have to rate here. That said, she’s ridden by Luis Saez and he’s had a knack for working out the right trips at this meet. I want some horses who can come from off the pace. The most logical of those are Command Point and Baseline Drive. I didn’t know what to do with Command Point, who faced a good field at Arlington last time but has to validate that form in New York. Baselive Drive makes sense as she comes up from Florida. She’s an honest performer but not one that I’d want to take at a relatively short price. I’m most interested in a couple of longshots. One of those is Family Time. Her recent efforts have come on dirt and her turf performances look slower. However, when she was competing on turf, those efforts represented a slight improvement on her surrounding dirt form at the time. I think it’s possible that this 3-year-old filly has just improved overall lately, so perhaps she’ll translate that improved form to grass. The other horse that interests me at an even bigger price is Theodora Grace. She was visually impressive breaking her maiden against weaker two back, ranging up four-wide on the far turn before asserting her dominance through the lane. She tried a tougher level last time and got a subtly bad trip. She was too rank in the early going behind a moderate pace and then got shuffled back for about a quarter of a mile from the far turn until upper stretch. She was never winning or even hitting the board in that spot, but her effort isn’t as poor as it looks. Now she finds herself in a race with more pace, so she should have a chance to settle better.

Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 1,2,7,11
 

RACE 10: LIMONITE (#5)
Mystic Night is clearly the horse to beat in this N2X allowance optional claimer. He was an impressive winner in his lone prior start going a two-turn 1 1/8 miles at Aqueduct, a performance in which he beat a rail bias to get the job done. However, he’s only run once since March with his subsequent start surrounded by layoff lines. He perhaps didn’t love the sloppy track he encountered last time, but he was supposed to win that race against a slightly softer field. He’ll beat this field with this best effort but this is a competitive affair and I didn’t want to settle for a short price about whom I have some questions. Superfecto makes sense after finishing second to Danny California at this level last time. That rival returned just 4 days later to finish a distant third in a stakes. Superfecto set an honest pace when they met on Aug. 7 and held well for second. I think 9 furlongs is stretching him to his limit and he has other speed to contend with here. I’m using both of them, but I want to get a little more creative with a closer at a price. Limonite was running races that would make him competitive here going back to last winter for Amira Chichackly. However, he went off form for that low-profile barn and was put way for a little while. He resurfaced last time first off a trainer switch to Gustavo Rodriguez and woke up a bit despite facing a very tough field in the Alydar. He closed for fifth in a race that was dominated on the front end, and he was running on best of all late. I think he can step forward second off the layoff and I like the addition of blinkers, which could get him a little more involved early.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 2,3,9,10
 

RACE 11: DREAM LITH (#7)
Echo Zulu is obviously the horse to beat in this Spinaway as she stretches out off her visually impressive maiden victory on opening day. That was the faster of two maiden divisions on that card, and she was flattered when third-place finisher Outfoxed returned to run away with a stakes at Gulfstream last week. Echo Zulu may be very talented, but her 104 TimeformUS Speed Figure, while the highest number in this field, doesn’t make her a total standout in this race. Steve Asmussen is just 4 for 23 (17%, $0.99 ROI) with 2-year-old last-out debut winners returning in dirt graded stakes over the past 5 years. She also has to contend with a difficult pace scenario, as the two runners drawn immediately to her outside appear to be committed to sending for the lead. Given her likely short price, I want to take a shot against her, and I’m most interested in horses who can rally from off the pace. One of those who interests me is Tarabi, who makes her second start for Cherie DeVaux. She got a great trip in her debut, slipping through along the inside before running away late, and can be a factor here. My top pick is Dream Lith, who I trust the most to get this demanding 7-furlong distance. This filly took no money in her debut but ran a professional race. She rated kindly on the backstretch and delivered a strong stretch rally when called upon, finishing with good power through the line. The runner-up came back to finish off the board in her next start, but actually repeated the same TimeformUS Speed Figure, so it’s a legitimate number. She’s bred to handle added ground and she doesn’t figure to be bothered by having to rally from off the pace.

Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,3,5
Trifecta: 7 with 1,3 with 1,2,3,5,8