by David Aragona
Get the wagering strategy for this card in this year’s TimeformUS Saratoga Betting Strategies package, which includes PPs for each day of the meet, exclusive access to the daily Highlight Horse, multi-race ticket constructions, and additional analysis of every stakes race at the meet. More info ›
Race 1: 3 - 7 - 9 - 4
Race 2: 2 - 4 - 1/1A - 3
Race 3: 3 - 6 - 2 - 1A
Race 4: 2 - 9 - 3 - 5
Race 5: 2 - 9 - 1 - 4
Race 6: 1 - 3 - 8 - 6
Race 7: 5 - 6 - 7 - 9
Race 8: 5 - 1/1A - 3 - 8
Race 9: 8 - 1 - 4 - 6
Race 10: 3 - 2 - 7 - 10
RACE 1: FROSTED ROSE (#3)
There’s not much form to analyze in this race. I suppose a horse like Dan the Man Can will attract some support due to the fact that he earned a competitive speed figure in his debut on dirt. However, he doesn’t have much turf pedigree, so he’s likely to take money for the wrong reasons. Of those with experience, I strongly prefer Frosted Rose, who may get somewhat ignored due to the inferior speed figure she earned in her debut. Yet that was a difficult race to assess from a final time standpoint since they went so slowly in the early going. I actually think there may have been some runners of quality in that field, including the winner. Frosted Rose dropped far out of contention in the early going, but she was really running on strongly at the end, making up a ton of ground in the lane before galloping out with excellent energy. Mike Trombetta has brought some runners up from Laurel this week and a few of them seem live, including this filly. I like the addition of blinkers and the rider switch to Joel Rosario. With the first time starters, I’m mostly guessing as to who to use with her. Saint Marco has some pedigree for turf, though Niall Saville is not known for winning first time out. Smite goes out for excellent turf sprint trainer Joe Sharp and is out of the 4-time turf-winning dam Double Dinghy Day. And of course, you have to include Wesley Ward’s runner Summer Sangria, who worked decently at the Fasig-Tipton sale and has some turf pedigree in the second generation of her dam’s family.
RACE 2: NO DEAL (#2)
Lady’s Island is going to be a prohibitive favorite in this spot off her string of superior speed figures. Yet I’m somewhat skeptical of this filly at a very short price. She’s likely to encounter a fast track on Thursday and she’s clearly better over wet going. Those last two victories in stakes company were earned over sloppy, sealed tracks that she clearly loves and I’m just a little skeptical that she can repeat those performances over a fast Saratoga main track. Furthermore, while Danny Gargan is the listed trainer, this mare was still in Florida as recently as last Wednesday when she worked 3 furlongs down at Gulfstream. I know the Pace Projector indicates that she has a pace advantage and that will make her tough to beat. I just won’t be surprised when she gets very leg-weary in the last furlong and finds herself vulnerable to a late runner. The problem with this race is that the alternatives are not terribly compelling. The Rudy Rodriguez entry is going to take money, but I have some questions about both of these runners. Rudy needs to get Clairvoyant Lady to run a faster race, since her speed figures have plateaued at a lower level than what is probably required to win here. Archumybaby is the more interesting runner, but her form had badly tailed off for Linda Rice prior to the claim. She obviously has back races that make her competitive, but she needs to regain that form and the early speed that she’s apparently lost. I actually think the most interesting alternative to the favorite is No Deal. I know her recent form looks subpar, but she’s had some excuses. She was in a tough spot against the talented Wesley Ward filly Bingwa two back, and then last time she had little chance to close over a speed-favoring sloppy surface. Prior to that, she had run fairly well over the winter at Aqueduct, showing a clear preference for dirt sprinting. Phil Serpe has been having a solid year, and I’m hoping he can get this filly back into form. Her best effort makes her a threat, as long as the favorite falters late.
RACE 4: EIGHTY SEVEN NORTH (#2)
With the scratch of Ideational, who was likely to be the favorite, this race is slightly less interesting from a value standpoint. Molly's Nighthawk will probably inherit the favorite's role and I don't really have anything against her. She's getting a positive rider switch to Junior Alvarado and has a right to keep improving in her third start off the layoff. Yet I'm sticking with my original top pick of Eighty Seven North. This Leah Gyarmati trainee is getting some needed class relief after meeting tougher rivals in her two prior turf starts. I’ll forgive her career debut on this surface and then she was never really in a position to be competitive in that turf start two back. She was stuck down on the rail behind the pace as the top two finishers pulled away from the pack. I’m encouraged that she put forth the best speed figure of her career last time on the dirt, which is not even her preferred surface, suggesting that she may have another step forward in her. The rider switch to Jose Ortiz doesn’t hurt either, and she got a much better post position on the redraw than was the case last Thursday. I'd also use Two Graces, who will appreciate the class relief on turf, and Love That Goose, whose most recent turf route performance actually puts her in the mix.
RACE 7: BLUE ATLAS (#5)
Lovely La La should go off as the favorite after finishing second as the heavy public choice when last seen on July 5. While that loss was disappointing, she he was done no favors by her rider’s lack of aggression, as he was reluctant to open up an advantage early and inadvertently let main rival Broken Border get the jump on him. She should have no trouble stretching out to this one-mile distance and appears to be the most talented member of this field. Yet she has little margin for error and may not be a playable price. I want to look at some other options since there are a number of viable alternatives. Dynamite Kitten makes some sense after getting stymied in traffic last time, though I doubt she was winning that race even with a clear trip. I’ll use her prominently, but my top pick is coming in from out of town. Blue Atlas would not have been competitive in this race when trained by Todd Pletcher a year ago, but she appears to be a different horse since the trainer switch to HoracioDePaz. She was facing a weaker field two back, but it’s noteworthy that she showed a newfound willingness to pass horses as she sliced between rivals in the lane. Then last time, she was meeting an open company allowance field of comparable quality to this one and I thought she ran great. The pace held together and she was the only one making up serious ground late. Both the winner and runner-up would be among the favorites in a spot like this. I think handicappers might not fully appreciate how much this 4-year-old has improved in the past two months, and we already know DePaz can win at the Spa.
RACE 9: ROCKETRY (#8)
I’m not going to overcomplicate this Birdstone. It essentially boils down to a two-horse race between Marconi and Rocketry, who have competed against each other in four consecutive starts. Marconi has gotten the better of his rival on all of those occasions, but now he’s stretching out to the longest distance that he’s every attempted. Marconi clearly relished 11 furlongs in the Flat Out three back, but he was aided going 1 1/2 miles two back in the Brooklyn. He was allowed to set a very slow pace that day while riding a gold rail, a significant advantage on Belmont Stakes day. I don’t think it’s a stretch to say that Rocketry undoubtedly ran the better race that day, since he was off the rail and closing into those pedestrian fractions. They both were overmatched in the Suburban last time, but again Rocketry was compromised by the slow pace of that race. I know that some will say Rocketry just isn’t the same horse as a 5-year-old, but I think he’s had excuses. As odds as it sounds, every race except the Brooklyn may have been too short for him. He obviously relished the 1 1/2 miles that day and he figures to be even better stretching out to 1 3/4 miles here. It’s unclear if we can say the same about Marconi. Rocketry handled this distance in the Marathon Stakes last year, and he ran one of the best races of his career going 2 miles on the turf in the Belmont Gold Cup last year, so he clearly wants to run as far as they write races. It’s no surprise that the blinkers are coming off since they didn’t do anything positive for him last time. Joel Rosario is great in many situations, but his strengths figure to be on display in a race like this, since he will be as patient as possible going this elongated distance. I think today’s the day that Rocketry turns the tables on his rival.
RACE 10: WAYNES FOOTSTEPS (#3)
This race, another brought back from earlier in the meet, has changed a bit upon redrawing. Jimmy Jazz and Worth a Shot, major contenders the first time around, are now stuck on the also-eligible list. Meanwhile, there are some new faces worth considering. Linda Rice entered Daring Disguise, who drew a good post position down towards the rail. I’ve been waiting for this horse to stretch out on grass since it’s obviously his preferred surface, yet he doesn’t strike me as a true turf sprinter. I know his recent form looks somewhat dull for a horse that may be a short price, but I would respect him going this trip. Saltking also makes sense as he returns from a layoff. He ran quite a race against open company when last seen at Gulfstream, unleashing a wild finish to just miss at 72-1 odds. I’m using both of these horses, but I want a different new face. My top pick is Waynes Footsteps, who returns from a 10-month layoff while making his first start as a 3-year-old. Trained by Michael Dilger last year, he showed some ability when switched to turf, running second to the capable sprinter Veterans Beach at Saratoga before successfully stretching out to a mile at Belmont in the fall. That final effort in October was actually stronger than it appears, since he was racing 2 to 3 wide for the final 5 furlongs over a course that was heavily rail-biased. Now he returns as a more mature horse in Brad Cox’s barn, and he appears to be training well for his return. Furthermore, he has speed and an aggressive rider in a race that does not feature much early pace. He’s not going to be any kind of huge price, but I just think he makes a ton of sense.