PICKS

Race 1:   5 - 2 - 1 - 7
Race 2:   6 - 1 - 7 - 5
Race 3:   4 - 8 - 7 - 6
Race 4:   7 - 1 - 3 - 9
Race 5:   4 - 5 - 2 - 1
Race 6:   2 - 9 - 5 - 11
Race 7:   5 - 1A - 6 - 7
Race 8:   6 - 4 - 1 - 2
Race 9:   10 - 2 - 12 - 9

TOP PLAYS

RACE 2: KID FROM NEW YORK (#6) / PROST (#7)
I'm not enamored of either Todd Pletcher runner in this spot, and they both figure to go off at relatively short prices. Hy Brasil is dropping in class, but he's had plenty of chances, going off at even-money or lower in his last three starts. His speed figures have gotten progressively slower, and I'm not convinced that stretching out to nine furlongs helps him. I'm similarly skeptical of Battle Ready, who is bred to be more of a turf horse, and was no match for Hy Brasil when they met at Gulfstream Park back in May. Instead, I want a couple of alternatives. The more likely of the two is Kid From New York, who drops out of maiden special weight company for Nick Zito. I know that he hasn't come close to winning in his three starts, but he's actually run better than it seems. He was obviously no match for eventual Wood Memorial runner-up Battalion Runner two back. Then last time he was contesting a fast pace (indicated by red color-coding in the PPs), in a race that fell apart in the late stages. He's projected to be controlling the pace up front, and Zito gets a decent 71 Trainer Rating with runners stretching out in distance. The other horse I'll use is Prost, who is trying two turns for the first time as he makes his second start. He was steadied at the start of his debut and made a premature move into contention prior to fading late. I think he can do better than that, but this is a tough spot for him to return.

Win: 6
Win/Place: 7
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,3,5,7
Trifecta: 1,6 with 1,3,5,6 with 7

RACE 4: SHIDOSHI (#7)
Consumerconfidence and Big Exchange are the two runners likely to attract the most play, but neither one does much for me as a potential wagering proposition. Consumerconfidence has had his fair share of chances, and his one start at this distance was not particularly inspiring. Big Exchange is in decent form, but I see little evidence that he wants to get turned back all the way to five and a half furlongs. I want to go in a different direction, so I’m taking a shot with Shidoshi. I know that he hasn’t been remotely competitive in his races, but he seems like more of a sprinter, and his two starts at six furlongs came against far stronger competition than what he meets today. I’m hoping Kendrick Cartouche can get him to show the same early speed that he flashed first time out, and Dave Cannizzo’s runners have been performing very well lately.

Win/Place: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,3,9

RACE 7: BLUEGRASS PREVAILS (#5)
There figures to be at least an honest pace in this race with Sudden Surprise, Love That Jazz, and Marriedtothemusic all possessing plenty of early speed. While I'll use both of the coupled entries, assuming there are no scratches, I think some of the other runners will offer better value. The horse that interests me most is Bluegrass Prevails. He had been in capable hands with Michelle Nevin, but perhaps this change of scenery to Ray Handal's barn can wake him up. The last time that he ran this cheaply, he actually put in a better effort than it seems, racing two wide against a rail bias on March 5. Since then, he's primarily faced tougher company, and should appreciate this slight class relief. His stalking running style should allow him to get first run on some of the late closers if the pace heats up ahead of him. Furthermore, Handal gets a 100 Trainer Rating with horses dropping from allowance to claiming company.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,6,7

RACE 8: LOVER’S KEY (#6)
I'm a big fan of Lover's Key and I think she is the horse to beat in this race. She was projected to be the controlling speed two back when she was beaten by Lady Joan. However, even though Jose Lezcano did ride her to the front early, he quickly reined her in to such an extent that he basically surrendered her pace advantage while letting the others get into the race. Lady Joan was basically even with her by the time they reached the top of the stretch, and Lover’s Key couldn’t quite fend her off. Junior Alvarado rode her the right way last time, taking advantage of her ample early speed to create some distance between her and the rest of the field. There is more pace in this race, but I don't think she needs to be in front early, as she proved in her last start in Florida. She got some crazy rides from a low-percentage rider in those Gulfstream Park races, making premature moves on almost every occasion. Despite that, she showed that she's perfectly capable of handling two turns, which gives her a distinct advantage over her foes in this race, since many of them are stretching out from sprints. Her trainer, Reid Nagle, has fantastic numbers overall, and gets a 100 Trainer Rating with all turf starters.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,2,4
Trifecta: 6 with 1,2,4 with 1,2,4,7

RACE 9: LADY LOVE (#10)
There's a lot of guesswork to be done in this race, so I want to take a shot with a horse that I know will be a square price. Lady Love didn't do any serious running in her debut, but she figures to improve with this surface switch. She is a half-sister to capable New York-bred turf sprinter Lord of Love, and is by a solid-enough grass sire in Justenuffhumor. John Hertler's runners rarely take much money, but he can certainly get a longshot to outrun her odds. I like that top turf rider Jose Lezcano keeps the mount.

Win/Place: 10