PICKS

Race 1:   4 - 3 - 5 - 6
Race 2:   3 - 2 - 6 - 5
Race 3:   2 - 5 - 4 - 1
Race 4:   3 - 2 - 1 - 7
Race 5:   6 - 10 - 7 - 1
Race 6:   5 - 9 - 4 - 8
Race 7:   8 - 6 - 5 - 1
Race 8:   2 - 4 - 1 - 3
Race 9:   6 - 7 - 3 - 1
Race 10:   8 - 10 - 11 - 2

PLAYS

(Guide - WIN: recommended win/key horse at fair odds; UPGRADE: value horses I picked underneath to consider upgrading in vertical/horizontal wagers; USE: runners to include in vertical exotic wagers with Win horse)

RACE 4: RUSE (#3)

A few runners in this New York-bred optional claimer exit a July 15 race at this level. The runner I want most from that affair is sixth-place finisher #3 Ruse, who arguably ran the best race of all. He was chasing a fast pace that fell apart while racing 3-wide around the track during a time when closers seemed to have an advantage on the inner course. I like the slight cutback to a mile for him, and he’s drawn well towards the inside this time. If he merely maintains his recent form, I think he’ll prove difficult to beat in this spot. #2 Barrage achieved the best result of those exiting that July 15 race, checking in second after working out a pretty good trip. He did go wide on the turns, but got plenty of pace ahead of him. He’s going out for a dangerous barn and worked very well up here last week, so I’m expecting another good showing. #1 Ghost Giant had to briefly pause in midstretch of that race, but it didn’t significantly affect his performance, and he had gotten a great trip up until that point. I feel the same way about #7 Straw Into Gold, who did have to alter course in mid-stretch but had a lot go right for him and just lacked some late punch.

WIN: #3 Ruse, at 2-1 or greater
USE: 2

RACE 8: H. T. XENA (#2)

The Pace Projector is predicting that #3 Backyard Money will get the right trip setting the pace in a situation favoring the early leader. There just isn’t much speed signed on here, and she was stalking an honest pace last time before slipping through along the rail to cause a 23-1 upset. The problem is that you have to swallow a much shorter price here if you didn’t have her last time. She also is now being asked to stretch out an extra furlong, and she doesn’t exactly strike me as the type that will get better with added distance. Another stretching out is the undefeated #1 Echo Foxtrot, who has worked her way up the class ladder out of some cheaper races. She appeared to fare better with the switch to dirt last time, but that victory did come over a sloppy track that she seemed to relish. Fast going is a question, as is the company as she steps up in class. I won’t be shocked when she does well, but I didn’t want to take a short price on her. #4 Len Lo Ladyshouldn’t be underestimated despite the very long layoff. She faced better horses when she ran well against allowance company two back at Gulfstream. She’s protected in a starter allowance for her return and shows an aggressive series of workouts. My top pick is #2 H. T. Xena. Trainer Matt Shirer does a very good job with his small stable of horses, winning at a high rate with a healthy ROI. One of his victories already at this meet was off the claim for this same owner. This filly was staying on well going the mile last time out, and her prior victory had come going 7 furlongs. She feels like one that’s in pretty good form right now and she figures to bet somewhat overlooked.

WIN: #2 H. T. Xena, at 7-2 or greater
USE: 4

RACE 9: BREEZE EASY (#6)

Morning line favorite #7 Empress Tigress will obviously be tough to beat if she starts in this Galway. Jonathan Thomas has said that he’s likely to just run one of his entrants, and it would be her only if the turf comes up firm. This daughter of Classic Empire obviously possesses a ton of talent. She was an easy winner on debut at Woodbine in a race that is much stronger than speed figures capture. And she took to turf without issue in the Coronation Cup last time, spurting away in upper stretch before holding off a closer. Her tactical speed should ensure that she works out another good trip, but she does figure to be a shorter price than the generous 7-2 odds we got last time. Thomas’s other runner #3 Benbang is hardly impossible if she’s the one that competes here. She ran well to win the Blue Sparkler at Monmouth last time and may be the controlling speed if her stablemate scratches. Yet I’m taking a shot against these runners with #6 Breeze Easy. She’s run well in both starts since coming to this country. She got briefly shuffled back in upper stretch of the Soaring Softly two back before coming on to just miss. They tried to stretch her out to a mile last time in the Wild Applause, and she might have run the best race. She got involved in an early duel through some quick fractions before succumbing to a pair of Chad Brown closers who got perfect trips. I don’t mind the turnback for this daughter of sprint sire Bated Breath. Furthermore, Christophe Clement is 6 for 17 (35%, $3.03 ROI) going from routes to turf sprints in non-graded stakes over the past 5 years.

WIN: #6 Breeze Easy, at 3-1 or greater
USE: 3,7

RACE 10: CAPITAL GAL (#8)

I have little confidence in how the betting for this race will look, as it seems totally wide open. I just know that I don’t want to settle for a short price on anyone, since none of the runners appears to be standing on particularly solid ground. I’ve been a little interested in #11 Succulent since she made the switch to turf. She’s definitely improving, but her propensity to break slowly and lack of early speed make it difficult for her to work out a winning trip. I’m most interested in a couple of fillies who are switching surfaces. One of those, #10 Bavarian Creme, has already run well on grass. I just thought she got the wrong trip when she tried turf on May 30, as she was off a bit slowly and was wide every step of the way before staying on well at the end. She proved that she could get a mile on dirt last time, and she seemed to regain her tactical speed that day. If she can work out a similar trip here I think she’s dangerous, and it’s possible that she has more turf ability than that prior run indicates. My top pick is first time turfer #8 Capital Gal. It’s unclear how much ability she has, but I had tabbed this filly has one to play on grass going all the way back to her debut. Therefore, I was a little surprised when she was entered as an MTO along the way, on May 8. However, she’s finally getting a chance to try turf here and I think she’ll appreciate the surface switch. Constitution is a solid turf influence, and her dam has a turf pedigree despite never trying it, being a half-sister to accomplished turf sprinter Determinato. She has a turfy way of moving, and figures to be a generous price off her disappointing recent efforts.

WIN: #8 Capital Gal, at 8-1 or greater
UPGRADE: #10 Bavarian Creme, at 6-1 or greater