by David Aragona
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Race 1: 7 - 5 - 2 - 1
Race 2: 3 - 4 - 7 - 1
Race 3: 5 - 3 - 4 - 2
Race 4: 1 - 5 - 2 - 7
Race 5: 9 - 7 - 4 - 2
Race 6: 6 - 10 - 7 - 2
Race 7: 1 - 11 - 7 - 4
Race 8: 2 - 5 - 4 - 3
Race 9: 6 - 1 - 2 - 11
Race 10: 8 - 12 - 11 - 3
RACE 2: BLUE ATLAS (#3)
Mike Maker has two of the major players in this $40k claimer. Last-out winner Whimsical Muse appears to be heading in the right direction since getting claimed by this barn over the winter. She returned from a layoff last time at Churchill and was a dominate winner going a mile. She was facing weaker company in that spot, but she took over with authority on the turn and was a visually impressive winner. This mare has plenty of back class, though she had done most of her racing over shorter distances. That said, she’s now 2-for-2 going two turns on dirt, so perhaps she’s always been pretty versatile. I wouldn’t disagree with anyone who called her the horse to beat, since there are some questions about Maker’s other runner Candy Flower. This filly had been in great form for Saffie Joseph through the spring before trying some tough spots in her last two starts. She couldn’t withstand a pace duel with Dalika in the Dick two back, and then last time readily folded after chasing the pace. The drop in class should help, but this trainer switch feels a little desperate as the connections try to wake her up. My top pick is Blue Atlas, who returns from a layoff. She won off a similar break last year before trying some tougher New York-bred company at Saratoga. She didn’t get the best trip when last seen in August 2020, as she was spun wide on the first turn and could never pick up over yielding ground. Horacio DePaz is 7 for 31 (23%, $3.02 ROI) off 180+ day layoffs on turf over the past 5 years. She’s arguably the best closer in the field and she’s supposed to get some pace ahead of her.
Win: 3
Exacta: 3 with 1,4,7
RACE 4: CHOCOLATE COOKIE (#1)
Spungie figures to be the clear favorite as she moves up in class to tackle New York-bred N2X company for the first time. While she was only earning her first turf victory last time out, she had run very well in some tough spots on grass prior to that. She put in a good showing against open company in her career debut over the winter, and two back she was beaten by subsequent stakes winner Runaway Rumour. She finally got that turf win last time and did so in style, drawing off by nearly 8 lengths. However, she was facing an inferior field that day, and now she must prove she can deliver against tougher company. Only 6 runners are entered for turf, but this is a relatively strong field for the level. Kreesie is coming off a visually impressive victory at this level last time, though she will have to hold her form for a new barn. And the 3-year-old Mischievous Dream could be set to step forward after returning with a solid second-place finish going 7 furlongs at Belmont. I’d use them in some capacity, but my top pick is Chocolate Cookie. This filly makes her second start off a layoff after running deceptively well in her return last time. She stumbled at the start, putting her at the back of the pack early behind a slow pace. All things considered, she did well to close for third in a race where few made up significant ground through the lane. She had shown real promise last year when impressively winning her N1X condition at Belmont, and I think she can challenge Spungie here with a clean break.
Win: 1
Exacta: 1 with 2,5,7
Trifecta: 1 with 5 with 2,4,7
RACE 9: FRACTORZATION (#6)
Uncle’s Gem could go favored here after breaking her maiden over this course and distance last time out. She was the kind of Linda Rice second time starter who really benefited from her debut experience, taking a major step forward in her reappearance. She showed vastly improved early speed under Irad Ortiz and gamely held sway late over next-out winner Kreesa La Wrote. A repeat of that performance may be good enough to get the job done here, but there are others to consider. I’m not a fan of Snicket, who always takes some money and just never gets the job done. I’m instead interested in a couple of other horses at bigger prices. My top pick is Fractorzation, who should appreciate this cutback to 5 1/2 furlongs. She arguably ran her best turf race over this distance last summer when hanging on for third at this level after setting a fast pace. Since then she got cooked in a cutthroat duel through blazing early fractions on May 8, and then last time she just couldn’t get the more demanding 7-furlong distance. I still think she fits at this level and she should play out as the controlling speed this time. At an even bigger price, I would also want to use Athena Dancer. She was against a track bias in her career debut and then ran well to win second time out over some runners who have since come back to earn faster speed figures. She, too, has a right to move forward as a more mature 3-year-old and she could get somewhat ignored on the board. It should also be noted that Get the Candy draws into this race from the also eligible list. She is a contender, but she got a perfect trip last time and I prefer others.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,2,11
Trifecta: 6 with 1,2 with 1,2,8,10,11
RACE 10: SEMPER FIDELIS (#8)
The weirdest thing about this race is that it’s carded for turf. While most of the horses in this field have run on the turf, many of them are seemingly better dirt horses, so it’s hard to figure why their connections are running here. Among those with established grass form, Amano is probably the horse to beat. Chad Brown can win off these types of layoffs and he has some of the best speed figures in this field. However, I’ve never been this runner’s biggest fan, and I think he’s better going longer distances than this. He may win, but there are many other more intriguing contenders at better prices. No Burn makes some sense as he drops for his second career start. He set a moderate pace in his debut, but was just run down by superior horses at the maiden special weight level. I’ll use him, but I’m most interested in a pair of first time turfers. Abaan is fairly obvious as he switches over to grass for Todd Pletcher. Will Take Charge has been a surprisingly strong turf influence and his dam has produced multiple turf winner Chip Leader. Pletcher is also 6 for 21 (29%, $2.84 ROI) with maiden special weight to maiden claiming dropdowns trying turf for the first time. My top pick at what figures to be a bigger price is Semper Fidelis. Fast Anna has had moderate success as a turf sire, but the bottom side of his pedigree is all grass. His dam earned all her wins on grass and was Grade 2 placed on that surface, and both of her foals to try grass are winners over it. This colt was well-bet in both starts last winter, suggesting that he had trained well over dirt into those races. He was a bit of a disappointment then, but he may just finally be getting on the right surface. The recent turf workouts at the Oklahoma track are slow, but I like the way he moved over grass in that drill last week.
Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 2,3,11,12