PICKS

Race 1:   1/1A - 4 - 6 - 2
Race 2:   8 - 4 - 5 - 1
Race 3:   8 - 2 - 1 - 7
Race 4:   6 - 4 - 2 - 1
Race 5:   7 - 2 - 3 - 12
Race 6:   5 - 1 - 3 - 4
Race 7:   2 - 10 - 8 - 3
Race 8:   3 - 1 - 6 - 5
Race 9:   1 - 6 - 3 - 4
Race 10:   10 - 7 - 5 - 3

PLAYS

RACE 2: MALIBU LUNA (#8)
We’ll see if any of the first time starters take money, but I’m primarily focused on Malibu Luna in her second start. This is a restricted maiden race for horses who either sold or were an RNA at auction for $45,000 or less. Therefore, Malibu Luna raced against a tougher open company field in her debut 11 days ago. She didn’t attract much support on the tote board that day, but she had been working pretty well coming into that race and it translated into her performance in the afternoon. She chased an honest pace from her outside post position and stayed on gamely through the lane to be fourth. The speed figure came back a little slow, but I liked what I saw from her. Bill Mott has solid statistics with second time starters and I think she can break through here despite facing males. The one first time starter who intrigues me a bit is Safe Conduct. The Phil Serpe barn isn’t known for firing on debut, but this colt appears to be training well and he’s bred to be fast as his dam is a half-sister to the accomplished sprinter Fatal Bullet.

Win: 8
Exacta Box: 4,8

RACE 3: ORIGINATOR (#8)
My principal opinion in this race is that I’m not particularly thrilled with any of the fillies exiting the July 17 race at this level. I didn’t get the sense that Lady Lawyer necessarily ran her best race going that 5 1/2-furlong distance, so I’m not inclined to bet back those who finished just behind her. Olendon has generally been a bit of a disappointment and had no excuse to lose with a perfect trip last time. Turf War and Lost Ticket both stayed on for minor awards and may improve here, but I don’t see much more pace to aid them in this spot. I’m interested in bigger prices. Kitten’s Covergirl has to be considered as she turns back in distance. A mile was too far for her last time and she was hardly disgraced against a better field. She appears to be in better form since the trainer switch to Mertkan Kantarmaci and she at least showed over the winter that she could handle true turf sprint distances. Yet I want to get even more creative by going with Originator as my top pick. She was facing cheaper company at Churchill Downs last time and got a great trip to win, but a mile isn’t her best distance. I understand why they dropped her that day, but I think her prior form at this level isn’t as bad as it seems. She didn’t get the most comfortable trip two back in a roughly-run race, and I’m willing to excuse her early season efforts at Gulfstream. She was good enough to be competitive with a field like this last year and I have confidence that Ian Wilkes can get her back into form.

Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 1,2,4,7

RACE 5: FRENCHIE FROU FROU (#7)
Dream Chasing figures to go favored in this spot. She did finish second at this level last time, but there was no discernable excuse for her to get run down by longtime maiden Magical Romance after setting a moderate pace. She can obviously win, but I’d be reticent to accept a short price on her. Two of the most appealing alternatives will be trying turf for the first time – New York Supreme and Robin Sparkles. The former has the superior pedigree for this surface switch, by solid grass sire Consitution and out of the same dam who produced Fled, a turf sprint winner over this course last year. However, New York Supreme has had trouble getting out of the gate in some recent starts and could get outrun to the lead by the fleet Robin Sparkles. This Bruce Brown trainee doesn’t have much obvious turf pedigree, but she possesses a ton of speed and was taking money in a maiden special weight race at this level two weeks ago before getting scratched at the gate. I’ll use them all, but my top pick is Frenchie Frou Frou. I thought she ran pretty well in her lone turf sprint start at Belmont two back, and certainly no worse than favorite Dream Chasing’s last start. I’m willing to throw out her last race when she never got involved routing. This turnback figures to benefit her, and I like the rider switch to Tyler Gaffalione.

Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 2,3,12

RACE 10: DATA ANALYTICS (#10)
This is a wide-open affair, especially with favored also-eligible entrant Gaelic Gold failing to draw into the field. Among those with turf experience, Two Cent Tootsie sports the strongest overall résumé. Yet she’s already had eight chances to win her maiden and has too often squandered favorable trips while settling for minor awards. I’m instead inclined to consider some fillies who will be making their turf debuts, and the one who intrigues me most is Data Analytics. This Chad Brown trainee made her career debut last October sprinting on dirt. Despite getting bet to 3-2 favoritism, she failed to deliver, fading badly in the stretch after chasing the pace. Now she will be trying the turf for the first time upon her return. While her sire Into Mischief is best known for his prowess with precocious dirt runners, his progeny have had their fair share of turf success, winning at a solid 14 percent rate on that surface. Her dam was unraced and has yet to make her mark as a producer, but she is out of multiple turf winner Forty Gran, making her a halfsister to multi-surface specialist Square Eddie as well as some capable turf runners. Furthermore, Brown has won with an impressive 5 of 14 (36%, $3.54 ROI) maidens trying turf for the first time at Saratoga over the past five years. I expect to see a better effort out of her, but there are certainly others to consider. First-time starter Chocolate Cookie appears to be working well over the Oklahoma turf course and is sent out by current leading trainer Todd Pletcher. I would even give a look to Masterof the Tunes at a generous price as she possesses one of the most convincing dam-side turf pedigrees in this field.

Win: 10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 1,3,4,5,7