by David Aragona
Get the wagering strategy for this card in this year’s TimeformUS Saratoga Betting Strategies package, which includes PPs for each day of the meet, exclusive access to the daily Highlight Horse, multi-race ticket constructions, and additional analysis of every stakes race at the meet. More info ›
Race 1: 2 - 4 - 1 - 3
Race 2: 3 - 10 - 4 - 6
Race 3: 4 - 3 - 2 - 1
Race 4: 4 - 1 - 9 - 10
Race 5: 1 - 7 - 5 - 4
Race 6: 6 - 11 - 1 - 7
Race 7: 5 - 11 - 1 - 9
Race 8: 2 - 1 - 5 - 8
Race 9: 8 - 5 - 2 - 12
RACE 3: TALE OF SILENCE (#4)
It will be interesting to see how the public approaches this compact field, which includes four horses with plenty of back class, all of whom are difficult to assess. Plainsman is likely to vie for favoritism, but this seems like merely a starting point for his delayed 4-year-old campaign. He really hit his stride in the second half of 2018 for Brad Cox, winning a couple of tough allowance races prior to taking down the Discovery. He now shows up in Shug McGaughey’s barn and this is probably just a stepping-stone to an autumn target. That said, this tank of a colt possesses a ton of talent and he has looked pretty solid in his recent drills. I’m using him, but others seem like better fits for this spot. Things have gotten off to a pretty slow start in 2019 for No Dozing after he concluded his prior season looking like a potential Grade 1-level sprinter/miler. That Bold Ruler win was both visually impressive and incredibly fast. While he’s been off form since returning this year, he is now returning to the Spa, which is where he got his career back on track with a win at this distance last summer. He should sit a great stalking trip off the two speeds and there’s little doubt that his best effort will put him in the winner's circle. I’m using him, but my top pick is Tale of Silence. The victories have become scarce for this 5-year-old and that’s largely due to a steady diet of graded stakes attempts. He’s just not quite good enough to beat the best sprinter/milers out there, but he always puts in a reliably competitive effort no matter the class level. He was in way over his head in the Met Mile last time and he wasn’t even disgraced in defeat. He really hasn’t had an opportunity to put his best foot forward yet this year, so the drop in class may do wonders for his confidence. He needs a little help from a pace standpoint, and he may get it with speeds Uncontested and Lenstar in the field.
RACE 5: TEACHABLE MOMENT (#1)
Sneakiness is a deserving favorite in this spot as he drops down to face maiden claiming foes for the first time. He’s the type of horse who probably isn’t going to be winning races at the maiden special weight level, so risking him for the $50,000 tag makes sense. I won’t hold the turf experiment against him, and now he’s just getting back on the right surface. He was facing a very strong field in his last dirt start on June 7, and he actually did well to finish fourth after a wide trip against a rail bias. I’m hardly against him, but there are many ways to go in this spot. Swick comes in with a similar profile after losing in that same June 7 event and then trying turf for the first time. That grass attempt failed miserably, but now he’s back in the right spot at a more realistic class level. I’m using him prominently, but I want to look at a horse who has already raced for a tag. Teachable Moment primarily raced on turf for the Chad Brown barn, but his lone dirt start last summer was actually fine. He probably would have won that race had he been running straight, since he was ducking in and out from the whip throughout the stretch drive. That race has actually been mildly productive and it’s not as if Teachable Moment improved much when switched back to the grass. Rob Atras has made some astute claims over the past year or so and I think he’s acquired a gelding who fits very well in this kind of spot. The horse that I don’t want is Cobble Hill. I know Todd Pletcher has strong numbers with maiden claiming droppers, but he does better with dirt routers. This horse’s lone dirt start was fairly lackluster and he’s been training with Bebeau, who disappointed off a similar drop last week.
RACE 7: TZIPI (#5)
It’s difficult to know which, if any, of the short prices can be trusted in this perplexing NY-bred allowance race. I suppose Hollywood Cat may be favored, but she was beating a very weak field at Monmouth last time and has not looked quite good enough to win at this level in any of her starts for Jason Servis, who has notably failed to improve this mare. Beaux Arts and Silencia are interesting shippers, but they are both one-dimensional speed types who could be compromised by a potential fast pace. Of the two, Beaux Arts undoubtedly brings the stronger form, having faced decent open company rivals in her recent starts, but she’s developed a habit of racking up second-place finishes. The other logical player is Andretta. While she’s clearly in career form, she’s coming off a mere maiden victory and may find this step up in class to be daunting. If I’m going to take a horse with limited experience against winners, I’m going to look for a better price with Tzipi. She didn’t earn the fastest speed figure when breaking her maiden at Aqueduct two back, but she did well to get up after racing a bit greenly through the stretch. She looked like a horse who needed a start when she returned last time, as she was away slowly and then was ridden tentatively thereafter. That performance is not as bad as it seems and now Linda Rice adds blinkers and taps previous regular rider Jose Lezcano to reclaim the mount. I expect a much better effort this time.
RACE 8: BONITA BIANCA (#2)
Holiday Disguise may no longer be in the best form of her career, but she’s still pretty formidable in these state-bred stakes races as a 5-yearold. She was unable to hang with graded stakes foes in two starts this spring, but she’s nevertheless won her last two starts against New York-breds. She handles the distance and she figures to get some pace to close into. I don’t totally trust her given her lack of consistency over the past year, but she’s the horse to beat. A number of those potential speeds are interesting contenders. Baby Boss would be intimidating if she were able to repeat that 118 TimeformUS Speed Figure that she earned last time. However, that was going a furlong shorter and she has yet to translate that Laurel form to New York. Carrera Cat and Fair Regis both improved against open company recently, but they each do their best work on the front end. This seems like a race that should set up for a late runner, so I’m going to take a shot with Bonita Bianca at what figures to be a square price. She’s the defending champion in this race, and I think it’s notable that her win here a year ago was the last time that she sprinted. Despite being a rangy daughter of Curlin who looks like a router, she’s clearly run some of her best races at sprint distances. You could even argue that she should be undefeated in races under a mile considering her poor trip at Delaware last summer. I don’t mind the turnback in distance and I certainly wouldn’t put it past this barn to get her back into top form.