by David Aragona
Now Available: TimeformUS Saratoga PPs and Betting Strategies
Gain access to TimeformUS PPs for all 40 days of the Saratoga meet, plus betting strategies – recommended wagers for each of David Aragona's daily Top Plays, fully constructed multi-race tickets including daily Pick-4s and Pick-5s, and additional strategic information around playing every card. You will also receive exclusive access to David's Highlight Horses, as well as opinions on all stakes races. Learn more ›
Race 1: 2 - 3 - 4 - 1/1A
Race 2: 3 - 5 - 2 - 1
Race 3: 4 - 5 - 2 - 1
Race 4: 10 - 5 - 1 - 2
Race 5: 8 - 10 - 1 - 6
Race 6: 2 - 9 - 7 - 8
Race 7: 7 - 2 - 5 - 6
Race 8: 9 - 7 - 6 - 3
Race 9: 2 - 1 - 6 - 7
RACE 1: SEAUXTALE (#2)
Throw the Fade may win this race at a short price, but he’s not the kind of favorite that I want to endorse. This horse has had his chances. I thought he had no excuse to lose two back when turned away by his longer-priced stablemate Fixedincome Larry, and then he completely fell apart last time when matched against a particularly tough group. He’s finally getting the class relief that he needs, but I’m more interested in some alternatives that figure to offer move value. Those options do not include Mantle, who lost at this level in the slop on opening week. He’s never run a fast race, and I don’t think it’s a good sign that his entrymate, Union Wise, has taken so long to debut. I want to look for a bigger price in this spot, so I’m trying Kentucky transplant Seauxtale. I recognize that this runner, too, has never recorded a competitive speed figure. However, I think that he subtly ran better than it might appear at first glance in a few of his 2-year-old performances. His debut at Ellis Park last summer was actually encouraging, as he ranged up with a powerful move around the far turn before flattening out while facing a solid field. His two efforts at Keeneland are not nearly as bad as they look on paper. He got involved in a five-way duel for the lead in that Oct. 7 race before backing up in a spot where a number of horses appeared to underperform. Then on Oct. 22 it appeared that his rider gave up prematurely, as he didn’t ask him for run until he had dropped out of contention. His only other race was a sloppy track loss at Fair Grounds. Now he returns as a new gelding and gets the class relief that he likely needs. This horse clearly has a bit of speed and I’d like to see Irad Ortiz make use of it from this rail post position.
RACE 3: BONITA BIANCA (#4)
Picco Uno will be attempting to win her second consecutive Union Avenue and appears to be heading into this defense in top form. Picco Uno was one of many horses in the Jason Servis barn that took a giant leap forward off their recent form to win in the early summer months. Sent off at 5-1, she won the Dancin Renee in the style of a 1-5 favorite, dominating throughout while earning a career-best 120 TimeformUS Speed Figure. The major concern for this filly is that she’s often had trouble putting top efforts back to back, so I find her to be a less than reliable favorite. I actually think Picco Uno’s stablemate may be her greatest threat. Bonita Bianca showed vastly improved early speed when she made her first start off the layoff – and first start for Servis – in June at Monmouth. She was justifiably sent off as the favorite next time out in the Dashin Beauty at Delaware off the effort. However, things didn’t go as smoothly in that spot, as she moved up on the inside down the backstretch, which was precisely where you did not want to be. The rail was dead on that July 7 card, as almost every horse that raced down there folded up and faded. Bonita Bianca backed out around the turn as if she was going to be another casualty of the rail, but she actually re-rallied once she was steered outside and finished up with interest. Servis has said that he will instruct Manny Franco to keep her outside of horses in this spot, and that seems to be the right strategy for this runner. If she can stay within range of her stablemate early, I think she’s got a legitimate chance to run her down at a far more palatable price.
RACE 4: RUVIES IN TIME (#10)
Tradeable seems like the most likely win candidate if she can repeat her debut performance. She did get a great trip that day, as she rated off the pace while saving ground, swung out for the drive, and had every chance to go by. She did hang a bit in the late stages, but it was nevertheless a strong debut showing. The major question with this filly is obvious. Do you really want to accept a short price on a favorite sent out by a barn that is winless on the year? While I’m not overlay concerned about that, I do think there are some other options in this race. A couple of the first time starters have strong turf pedigrees, as Rossby is well-bred for grass, and Kitty’s Legacy is a full-sister to graded stakes winner Fourstar Crook. If Kitty's Legacy in particular is able to run to her pedigree she's supposed to win this race, but unfortunately her workout reports have been less than enthusiastic. I’ll still use both, but the filly that interests me most is another with experience. Ruvies in Time made her debut in a tough spot on July 25. That race came up fast for the level, and runner-up Elegant Zip validated the strength of the race by returning to win her next start on Wednesday. Ruvies in Time was briefly involved before throwing in the towel. However, I wouldn’t put too much stock in that effort because she is bred to do much better on turf. While there isn’t overwhelming evidence in her female family, her second dam was a turf winner, and The Factor has proven to be a strong turf influence. I liked the way this filly moved in her 22 flat Fasig-Tipton sale workout earlier in the year, and I think we’re going to see a much stronger performance with this switch to grass.
RACE 5: SOUPERFAST (#8)
Astounding appears to be the horse to beat, but the many layoff lines in this runner’s past performances have to be a source of some concern. If he’s ready to fire his best shot, I think he’s going to win this race, but it’s hard to know what to expect. Even though he lost as the favorite twice last summer at the Spa, he actually ran better than it seems on both occasions and may have won twice under different circumstances. I think he’s dangerous, but I don’t expect him to offer sufficient value. A couple of runners are coming out of the July 21 race at the $50,000 claiming level. That spot was a bit tougher than this one and I thought Thatcher Street did well to hang on for fourth after stalking throughout. The problem with him is that he never seems to get the job done, and now he drops in class again. I’m using him, but I’m more interested in Souperfast, who finished just behind him last time. This gelding got shuffled back after the break and ended up getting extremely rank under Joe Bravo, resenting racing out of his customary position close to the pace. All things considered, I thought he ran well to get as close as he did at the end. I also thought he ran fairly well two back when he moved a bit too soon before getting run down by the superior Team Colors. Now he gets a rider switch to Jose Ortiz, and I would guess that he’ll revert the stalking tactics that have worked best for him in the past.
RACE 8: COOL BEANS (#9)
I found this to be the most interesting race on the card. Altea is obviously the horse to beat as she finally gets some class relief. She’s been campaigned in a series of graded stakes events since coming to this country despite the fact that she’s still eligible for this N1X allowance condition. She’s run admirably in a number of those races, but has proven that she’s just not quite up to the task of beating rivals like La Signare, Significant Form, and Daddy Is a Legend. If she runs her race, she’s supposed to win today, but I am somewhat concerned about her propensity to hang in the late stages of her races. I’m certainly using her prominently, but there are many others to consider in this fascinating affair. A couple of European imports make their U.S. debuts in this spot, and both have some appeal. Katie Cruel goes out for Graham Motion, who has a fantastic record with these types. Over the past five years, he is 17 for 55 (31 percent, $3.27 ROI) first off a trainer switch with foreign imports on turf getting Lasix. This filly has only gone six furlongs twice so far in her career, but she beat 20 rivals to break her maiden back in March, and the Timeform Foreign Comments in TimeformUS PPs indicate that she “offers hope she’ll stay further so could be worth a try in a Guineas trial now,” suggesting that stakes could yet be in her future. While she is more of a guess based on form, there’s no guessing about the class that Quivery showed in England last year. She won her first couple of starts before finishing a good fourth in a Group 3 last August, which was won by eventual Group 1 One Thousand Guineas winner Billesdon Brook. She fell apart in her final start of the season against the best fillies in her division, and now resurfaces for a U.S. campaign. She has apparently worked very well over the Saratoga training track in recent weeks and has always been cut out to be a good horse given her expensive purchase price and solid pedigree (she is a close relative to stakes winner Mrs. McDougal). I’m using both of these fillies, but I’m concerned about the pace in this race. Aside from longshot Eight Minute Ellie, there is not much early speed in this field, and that could make Cool Beans very dangerous. This filly has never actually crossed the wire first in any of her starts, but she has nevertheless run well every time she’s been led over. She ran arguably the best race of her career when making her 3-year-old debut at Keeneland in April, as she set a legitimate pace before just succumbing to next-out graded stakes winners Toinette and La Signare. They tried dirt with her a couple of times, but she proved last time at Arlington that she’s more effective racing over grass. She needs to take a step forward to beat this field, but that seems highly possible given the favorable set of circumstances today. She appeared to be a happy, thriving horse in her recent fast drill over the Oklahoma turf course, and I believe she’ll be difficult to run down.