PICKS

Race 1:   1 - 4 - 7 - 3
Race 2:   3 - 7 - 2 - 10
Race 3:   4 - 6 - 3 - 1
Race 4:   6 - 2 - 9 - 10
Race 5:   7 - 1 - 10 - 6
Race 6:   3 - 1 - 5 - 2
Race 7:   2 - 1 - 4 - 10
Race 8:   9 - 1 - 7 - 8
Race 9:   11 - 1 - 6 - 2

TOP PLAYS

RACE 1: FRIEND OF LIBERTY (#1)
Easy Way Out was installed as the morning-line favorite in this competitive opener, but she's one of the runners I'm interesting in playing against. At first glance, she looks pretty formidable, but keep in mind that she's had great setups in her races and is dropping in class after a pair of layoffs. One of the alternatives is her stablemate Tainted Angel, who just got the better of today's rival Honor Way in a cheaper spot last time. They both had things working for and against them on that occasion. They got a fast pace to close into, but Tainted Angel was wide throughout against a mild rail bias, and Honor Way was steadied at the start. They're worth using, but I prefer others. My top selection is Friend of Liberty. Robert Falcone Jr. isn't known for running horses back on short rest, but he has done very well off the claim over the past year. Since last summer, he is 7 for 20 (35 percent) with recent claims, with an ROI approaching $4. Furthermore, Friend of Liberty was racing three wide against a strong rail bias here last Sunday, and would have been a clear winner of that race over a fair track. I'll use her with the speedy duo of Courtmewithcarats and She's Stunning, since the Pace Projector is predicting a situation that favors the front-runners.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 3,4,5,7

RACE 3: SECURITIZ (#4)
Whether or not you think Securitiz is the right horse to bet in this race, it's pretty clear that you should want him over Thebigfundamental, who is likely to go off as the favorite. They faced off last time under similar circumstances, and there is no doubt that Securitiz ran the better race. Thebigfundamental had everything his own way on the front end that day, and had no real excuse. Securitiz, on the other hand, was asked to make an early run after his rival around the turn, and wore him down in the stretch before just getting nipped at the wire. Furthermore, the racetrack was somewhat conducive to inside speed types that day, which makes Securitiz's performance even more impressive. I think this Jimmy Jerkens trainee has returned in great form as a 5-year-old and will be very tough to beat in this spot. He possesses the tactical speed to not be overly pace- compromised, and I think he's the most likely winner of this race.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,3,6
Trifecta: 4 with 3,6 with ALL

RACE 6: HARD SCRAMBLE (#3)
Beasley has to be considered the horse to beat as he drops out of graded stakes company while returning from the layoff. When last seen, he hardly disgraced himself, finishing behind eventual Belmont Stakes winner Tapwrit in the Tampa Bay Derby. He's obviously a nice horse, but these connections are not exactly known for winning off layoffs, and he's facing at least one serious rival in this spot. If Hard Scramble can repeat his last effort, he's supposed to win this race. Takaful, who wired the field that day, is likely to go off as one of the choices in the Grade 1 Allen Jerkens later this month. Hard Scramble was the only horse chasing that pace to be anywhere near Takaful at the finish, while only getting passed by a pretty talented closer late. It seems like the Steve Asmussen barn has finally gotten rolling here after sending out a couple of winners last week.

Win: 3
Trifecta: 3 with 1,2,5 with 1,2,4,5,6,7

RACE 7: AWESOME BOSS (#2)
Taperge is the horse to beat, but she feels like one of these Chad Brown runners that is likely to get overbet. Her races at Gulfstream this winter were solid and she kept good company, but I'm not sure that she has much of an edge on this field, and there are other talented runners in this race. Initiate has gotten some favorable setups, but is a danger to wire the field, and Summer Luck must prove that her good third in the Regret was no fluke. I'll use all of them, but the filly that interests me most is Awesome Boss. I find it curious that she hasn't raced on turf since last summer, since she appeared to prefer that surface at the time. Her lone route race here as a 2-year-old was not a bad effort considering that she was beaten by eventual stakes winners Coasted and Dream Dancing. She's undoubtedly has improved since then, and seemed to take a significant step forward last time on the Polytrack at Turfway. Robby Albarado has had limited opportunities at this meet, but he's given some clever rides, and I think he can work out a good trip for this filly.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,4,10