PICKS

Race 1:   3 - 1 - 2 - 5
Race 2:   1 - 4 - 3 - 5
Race 3:   5 - 3 - 1A - 6
Race 4:   2 - 4 - 5 - 1
Race 5:   1 - 5 - 4 - 6
Race 6:   1 - 5 - 3 - 8
Race 7:   7 - 3 - 4 - 2
Race 8:   4 - 5 - 1 - 2
Race 9:   3 - 4 - 6 - 7
Race 10:   1 - 6 - 8 - 2

PLAYS

(Guide - WIN: recommended win/key horse at fair odds; UPGRADE: value horses I picked underneath to consider upgrading in vertical/horizontal wagers; USE: runners to include in vertical exotic wagers with Win horse)

RACE 1: UNCLE WATER FLOW (#3)

The scratch of Olympic Dreams, who I didn't like at all, dampens my enthusiasm for this race. Sensibleconclusion (#1) is the horse to beat and I don’t have any major knocks on his recent form. He comes in with the best speed figures, though all those were earned sprinting. The distance is a minor hurdle, and he also lacks upside as he makes the eleventh start of his career. I prefer Uncle Water Flow (#3) at what figures to be a better price. This runner goes out of a low-profile barn, but he’s actually run pretty well in his only two starts over fast dirt tracks. He had a few trips early in his career, but put in a good effort going today’s distance when dropped in for a tag in March. He tried this $25k level for the first time last month at Belmont and ran well considering the pace of that race. They didn’t go that quickly up front, and he was the only one making up ground at the end. I think he possesses more ability than it appears and I like that Javier Castellano retains the mount.

WIN: #3 Uncle Water Flow, at 5-2 or greater

RACE 2: OK HONEY (#1)

I imagine that Caragate (#4) will go favored here as she steps up to the NY-bred N2X level for the first time. She’s been improving with every start and seemed to take another step forward last time when drawing off to win by 4 lengths. However, she wasn’t facing the toughest field for the level and that was at 9 furlongs. I don’t think this cutback in distance benefits her at all, and I’m not excited about taking a short price on lower profile connections. My best alternative is Ok Honey (#1). She just never could get involved last time after breaking slowly and racing wide on the turn in a race that was dominated towards the front end. Six furlongs is also a little short for her, as she’s generally been best going distances around a mile. I thought she ran pretty well to be second behind Brattle House three back, and can be effective here if able to recapture that form. I know it looks like she’s tailed off since then, but I think she can attain a more forward position here than she’s been able to in her last couple of efforts.

WIN: #1 Ok Honey, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 3: FONTANAFREDDA (#5)

The favorites don’t do a whole lot for me in this NY-bred turf sprint. Get the Candy (#4) and Jill’s a Hot Mess (#6) both ran fine at this level last time when beaten by a superior horse in Makin My Move. However, I don’t like the way the former has been finishing off her races and Jill’s a Hot Mess goes out for a barn that has been having little success on this circuit. Sassy Melissa (#1A) was the beaten favorite that day when putting in an uncharacteristically dull effort. She had been in great form prior to that, but I don’t want to just excuse a poor performance without an apparent excuse. I see two alternatives at better prices. One of those is Dancingwthdaffodls (#3), who usually gets somewhat ignored on the tote board. She ran well against a tougher field last time when closing for third at 59-1. The cutback to 5 1/2 furlongs could be a hurdle for her, as she’s generally better in the longer Belmont turf sprints. However, she’ll be a fair price. My top pick is Fontanafredda (#5). This filly is stepping up off a victory at the N1X level in which she ran a lot better than the neck margin of victory would indicate. She was off towards the back of the pack and made steady progress despite racing wide on the far turn. I thought that was a real step in the right direction after a couple of less than stellar efforts since she returned from a layoff earlier this year. She obviously likes this course and trip and figures to be a fair price given her seemingly inferior speed figures.

WIN: #5 Fontanafredda, at 7-2 or greater
UPGRADE: #3 Dancingwthdaffodls, at 8-1 or greater

RACE 5: TSURIS (#1)

Among those with experience, Clear the Deck (#5) is the horse to beat in this auction restricted maiden affair. He was no match for impressive first time starter V Mart last time, but otherwise ran fine to be second. Ken McPeek is adding blinkers this time, likely looking for him to show a bit more early speed, as he’s hit his best stride too late in all of his starts to date. I’m not against him, but I do think there are some intriguing first itme starters in this field. Childers (#2)could take money going out for the Brad Cox stable. However, I think this horse’s workouts are merely decent and the stats for this barn with firsters are fairly negative. Uncle Dan (#4) didn’t work particularly fast at the Fasig-Tipton sale earlier this year, but I liked the way he did it. He may be one that ultimately wants more ground, but he has attracted John Velazquez for his debut. The debut runner who interests me most is Tsuris (#1). This horse didn’t sell for much as a yearling, but he’s a big, good-looking son of Astrology. There’s some speed and precocity in the pedigree, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him win early. Dallas Stewart is a solid 9 for 43 (21%, $3.16 ROI) with 2-year-old first time starters in dirt sprints over the past 2 years. He looked best in that Aug. 5 drill, breaking sharply and traveling easily with company, looking like there was always more in the tank. I think he’s going to run well as long as he breaks cleanly from the inside.

WIN: #1 Tsuris, at 3-1 or greater

RACE 6: BERNING HONOR (#1)

I imagine that Orange Freeze (#8) will take money by default in her career debut as she goes out of the potent combination of trainer Christophe Clement and jockey Joel Rosario. However, she’s not exactly a standout on pedigree, and she didn’t draw a great post position for the inner turf course. Freud is a versatile sire, but the two siblings to try turf haven’t had much success. She was decidedly second best to a workmate in that Aug. 5 drill over the Oklahoma course, so I’m a little skeptical of her overall ability at what figures to be a short price. The runner with the best pedigree in this field is Sarah’s Dialed In (#5), who sold to Mike Dini at the OBS April sale after working a furlong in 10 2/5. She’s from a strong Larry Goichman family of turf performers and is a half-sister to multiple grass winners Graded On a Curve and My Sassy Sarah. Those runners were by better turf influences than Dialed In, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if she took to this surface for a barn that can win with a firster. My top pick is Berning Honor (#1), who is one of two Dominick Schettino trainees in this field. She just looked like a runner who badly needed the experience in her debut. She broke a step slowly and was pretty green thereafter, reacting badly to kickback while climbing and striding awkwardly down the backstretch. She now adds blinkers for her second start and switches over to grass. Honor Code is a solid 13% turf route sire and her dam is by Freud, so there are some turf influences here. She looks like one that should handle it, and she also gets a rider upgrade to Flavien Prat.

WIN: #1 Berning Honor, at 6-1 or greater
USE: 3,5

RACE 8: WINIT (#4)

I’m not trying to beat Winit (#4), who just looks like he’s finally put it all together after breaking his maiden impressively last time out. This colt had trained well into his career debut last year, but clearly needed some time to figure the game out. He showed improvement at Gulfstream over the winter, but has really stepped forward since returning from a layoff this summer. He ran a deceptively strong third at Belmont two back, and then showed improved early speed to beat a very good maiden field last time. That 110 TimeformUS Speed Figure that he earned looks totally legitimate, and he may work out a similar trip once again. He also feels like one that should relish the added ground he gets to work with here. Nabokov (#3) could also try to be forwardly placed here and I suppose some may find him appealing if he can get back to his maiden-breaking form. However, I’m skeptical of the quality of that field he beat. He obviously didn’t show up at all in the Dwyer last time, and I don’t think it’s a given that he’s going to bounce back with a total form reversal. Complete Agenda (#2) is another who needs to find some improvement, though at least he isn’t facing a rival as tough as the 4-year-old Keepmeinmind on this occasion. My issue is that he seemed to be training very well into that last start, and I didn’t get that same sharp vibe from his recent drill. Warrior Johny (#5) seems like a more interesting alternative after chasing a swift pace last time at Churchill. He’s consistent and goes out for a barn that has been firing at this meet. I could also use the older horse Perceived (#1), who was guided down to a dead rail last time when attempting to make a rally. He fits on speed figures and may get somewhat overlooked.

WIN: #4 Winit, at 9-5 or greater
USE: 1,5

RACE 9: ROYAL DANCER (#3)

I wasn’t on board Dream Central (#4) when she won two stakes in a row at odds of 39-1 and 9-1, so I don’t feel right jumping on her bandwagon now that she’ll be a fraction of those odds. She didn’t get much respect off her initial stakes win last time, but ran down a solid field and is arguably the horse to beat off that performance. Javier Castellano will take over the reins as Jose Lezcano has opted to instead pilot the morning line favorite Busy Morning (#6). That Jorge Abreu trainee is a dangerous prospect if she can handle the distance. Her breakout performance came going 6 furlongs last time, as she spurted away from an overmatched field through the stretch to win by 6 lengths. She didn’t finish nearly as well in her prior start at a mile, but that was just her debut. She’s a contender, but I’m a little concerned about stamina for this half-sister to sprinter Qian B C. I prefer Royal Dancer (#3) at what I’m hoping is a better price. She is getting a rider upgrade to Irad Ortiz, which figures to attract attention, but she’s also a maiden stepping up into stakes company. I thought she ran very well in her prior stakes attempt against Dream Central, when setting an honest pace in a race where the other speeds totally collapsed. The cutback to 5 1/2 furlongs last time may have been too sharp, but I like this stretch-out to a mile given the current rail position and her inside draw. I’m hoping Irad sends her forward from the gate and tries to slow down the pace, which seems to happen often in these one-mile races on the inner.

WIN: #3 Royal Dancer, at 3-1 or greater