PICKS

Race 1:   4 - 1 - 2 - 5
Race 2:   2 - 7 - 1 - 5
Race 3:   1 - 3 - 6 - 9
Race 4:   5 - 2 - 1 - 4
Race 5:   5 - 3 - 1 - 2
Race 6:   2 - 6 - 3 - 7
Race 7:   11 - 7 - 10 - 6
Race 8:   6 - 2 - 7 - 9
Race 9:   1 - 6 - 5 - 3
Race 10:   5 - 12 - 9 - 4

PLAYS

RACE 1: SHE’S A BLACK BELT (#4)
Anna’s Fast was unstoppable during the Belmont Park meet, winning a pair of claiming races in dominant fashion. However, she had everything her own way on the front end each time while going out for Wesley Ward at a time when he was sending nothing but live runners to the NYRA circuit. Since then she’s been claimed by Rob Atras, and she’s coming off a poor effort in her first start for the barn. She did have legitimate excuses last time, as she got involved in a wicked early pace in the slop against tougher company. Yet now she lands in a field that includes some other speed once again. I think True Castle, who twice lost to Anna’s Fast at Belmont, can turn the tables on her rival this time. She ran well off the claim for Michelle Giangiulio last time and should be tough to beat here with a similar effort, assuming others apply pressure to Anna’s Fast. I think she’s the horse to beat, but I’m interested in another option at a bigger price. She’s a Black Belt was uncompetitive against those two aforementioned rivals last time. However, she didn’t get a great trip, chasing three-wide. She had been in good form over the winter before her speed figures declined, but she actually didn’t run that badly two back in an off-the-turf event after chasing the leader’s fast pace. She seems like a mare who does her best work over wet tracks, and it’s almost certain that she’ll encounter sloppy going at Saratoga on Thursday. This barn is underrated and she could be the biggest price of them all in this short field.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,2

RACE 7: BACKSIDEOFTHEMOON (#11)
With this race coming off the turf, I would be looking to play against possible favorite Claytonthelionheart. Some may say he’s a horse-for-course given the fact that all 3 of his career victories have been achieved at Saratoga. However, I’m somewhat skeptical of that speed figure he got two back on July 15. He was a dominant winner against inferior foes last time but didn’t run nearly as fast. He’s arguably the one to beat in his current form, and I do prefer him to Thomas Shelby, who could also take money. This son of Curlin has won 4 of his last 5 starts for Robertino Diodoro, whose barn has woken up lately at this meet. However, he’s been facing some weaker competition at Lone Star and I wonder if he really classes up with this field. I'm also not convinced that he really wants 10 furlongs. My top pick on dirt is Backsideofthemoon, and I’m intrigued by this trainer switch to Pat Reynolds. He may be one of those rare horses that just doesn’t perform well without Lasix, as all three of his efforts without that anti-bleeding medication this year have been poor. They all have to answer the 10-furlong question but at least this guy has a body of work around two turns, and has run well over that demanding winter dirt track at Aqueduct. He’s dropping into a realistic spot off the bench and it wasn't so long ago that he was running speed figures that would make him pretty tough to handle in this spot. I also wouldn't totally discount Fortuity among those entered for turf. I do think the added distance helps him, but obviously others have stronger main track form. I'd throw him in underneath.

Win: 11
Exacta: 11 with 6,7,10
Trifecta: 11 with 7 with 5,6,10