by David Aragona
Now Available: TimeformUS Saratoga PPs and Betting Strategies
Gain access to TimeformUS PPs for all 40 days of the Saratoga meet, plus betting strategies – recommended wagers for each of David Aragona's daily Top Plays, fully constructed multi-race tickets including daily Pick-4s and Pick-5s, and additional strategic information around playing every card. You will also receive exclusive access to David's Highlight Horses, as well as opinions on all stakes races. Learn more ›
Race 1: 3 - 6 - 2 - 1
Race 2: 1A - 4 - 2 - 3
Race 3: 9 - 4 - 1A - 3
Race 4: 1 - 2 - 4 - 3
Race 5: 8 - 2 - 1 - 7
Race 6: 8 - 6 - 2 - 10
Race 7: 4 - 5 - 9 - 2
Race 8: 2 - 1 - 4 - 3
Race 9: 7 - 5 - 4 - 6
Race 10: 7 - 9 - 1A - 4
RACE 1: GYPSO JO (#3)
My Won Love enters this race with the strongest overall résumé, having finished in the exacta in 4 of her 5 starts for Rudy Rodriguez despite facing slightly tougher company on most of those occasions than what she meets today. She clearly fits well at this $25,000 statebred claiming level, and the turnback to six furlongs should be ideal for her. The only minor knock against her is that she doesn’t possess much early speed, and there is not an abundance of pace in this race. Her main rival Satin Sheets is a bit more tactical, and she comes into this race off two consecutive wins. She was claimed out of her last start by Gary Gullo, who generally does a fine job with his new acquisitions. However, he is just 2 for 27 (7 percent, $0.41 ROI) first off the claim at Saratoga over the past five years. I’m using both of these runners, but I want to take a shot against them with Gypso Jo, who figures to go off at a more attractive price. This filly ran very well two back, when she was well supported in the wagering and ran off from a decent field of maiden claimers. She earned a 104 TimeformUS Speed Figure for that performance, a number that makes her very competitive with this group. Since then, she’s raced only once, when she was placed too ambitiously against starter allowance foes. She was never going to be competitive against a field of that quality. Now she returns off a layoff of similar length to the one that she got going into that maiden win, and she’s placed at an appropriate class level. There is not much early speed in this field, so Manny Franco can take up a position with her on or near the lead.
RACE 3: LONHTWIST (#9)
Chad Brown has a pair of runners in this race, both of whom are going to attract plenty of support. Frontier Market has to be considered the horse to beat off his series of superior speed figures and narrow losses in some strong maiden fields. I’m not against him, but I believe that others are going to offer better value. Brown’s other entrant, the 3-year-old Hizeem, makes his second start after an encouraging debut going 7 furlongs. He raced eagerly but rated behind horses before coming with a good kick in the lane. That race may have been a bit weaker than the ones Frontier Market exits, but he’s still a factor in this spot. I’m actually more interested in the other second-time starter in this field, Hierarchy, a Phipps-homebred. This horse ran like a colt that needed a start first time out, as he raced a bit greenly through the lane, changing leads multiple times. However, once Jose Ortiz got him straightened out, he finished with great interest and galloped out strongly in front of the entire field. This one may have a future. I’m using him prominently, but I want to take a shot with a bit of a price in this race. Lonhtwist was reportedly working very forwardly coming into his dirt sprint debut in early July, and he actually ran well that day after getting some noteworthy early tote support. He contested a fast pace that fell apart, but I liked that she showed some potent gate speed on the dirt. His pedigree is full of turf influences, as he is by good turf sire Lonhro out of a dam who was Grade 3-placed on turf and earned over $300,000 racing primarily on turf and synthetic surfaces. Leo O’Brien doesn’t have many top-class runners in his barn, but he can still get the best out of a good one when he gets the opportunity, as he showed with his multiple stakes-placed horse Backsideofthemoon.
RACE 6: SOUPER ECHO (#8)
With the scratch of Crestwood Falls, Diva’s Revenge should vie for favoritism as she goes out for Linda Rice, who does excellent work with her second-time starting maidens. Specifically, Rice is 3 for 10 ($4.29 ROI) over the past five years, with this move – dirt to turf sprint with maidens making their second start. The Factor has been a solid turf influence, so she has a right to handle the surface. I’m using these runners, but the filly that intrigues me most is Souper Echo. You really have to dig into the second generation of this filly’s female family to find the turf pedigree, but there is plenty of it. Her dam, who never tried grass, is a half-sister to two turf stakes winners, as well as another that was stakes-placed on grass. Macho Uno is a mediocre 10 percent turf sire, but I get the feeling that this filly may be meant for this surface. She showed good speed as juvenile going abbreviated distances and her most recent start at Belmont feels like merely a prep for this event.
RACE 7: HONEY DONT (#4)
There are a number of horses to consider in this tricky starter allowance event. The two horses drawn closest to the rail figure to take some money. Herecomesyourman always runs well, but it’s so hard to get him in the winner’s circle since his late move is difficult to time correctly. Sentry put in a solid late run going this distance last time out at Belmont, finishing second to a talented horse in Carrick. He’s clearly hitting his best stride for Shug McGaughey, so I think he’s one you need to respect. There isn’t much early speed in this race, and I think that makes Honey Dont particularly dangerous. This horse has shown good tactical speed in his races and should be either setting the pace or sitting just off longshot Knockholt early. He obviously needed a start off the layoff when he returned in June, and he looked like a completely different horse when he returned to win just 13 days later. That day, he easily fended off a late challenge from Sport, who himself was coming off a layoff. Sport’s subsequent win flatters the form of Honey Dont’s race, and Bill Mott has very good numbers in this situation. Over the past five years, he is 21 for 89 (24 percent, $2.92 ROI) with last-out maiden winners in turf routes.
RACE 9: CARE LADY (#7)
The star attraction in this intriguing optional claiming event is Martin Schwartz’s French import Onthemoonagain, who makes her U.S. debut for Chad Brown. She showed her quality in Europe, rebounding from a fall in the stretch of the Group 1 Prix de Diane to place in Group 2 and 3 events last summer. She may ultimately want to go a bit farther than this, but Chad Brown has excellent numbers with his foreign shippers at Saratoga, and she looks spotted to win in her stateside unveiling. While I think she’s the horse to beat in this spot, she’s probably going to go off at a very short price, and there is another intriguing foreign import in this race. Care Lady makes her first U.S. start after doing some impressive work in Argentina as a 3-year-old. She won a Group 1 on dirt, and finished a close third in a Group 1 on turf in November despite getting a very wide trip. She closed out her campaign with an impressive win over older rivals in the presitigious Group 1 Copa de Plata, a race won by U.S. graded stakes winner Dona Bruja a year earlier. This filly has been drilled extensively by Arnaud Delacour down at Fair Hill and I would not be surprised to see her make a favorable appearance in this spot.