by David Aragona
 

Get the wagering strategy for this card in this year’s TimeformUS Saratoga Betting Strategies package, which includes PPs for each day of the meet, exclusive access to the daily Highlight Horse, multi-race ticket constructions, and additional analysis of every stakes race at the meet. More info ›

PICKS

 
Race 1:   2 - 9 - 5 - 8
Race 2:   4 - 2 - 5 - 1
Race 3:   6 - 2 - 4 - 1A
Race 4:   5 - 1 - 4 - 3
Race 5:   9 - 8 - 4 - 10
Race 6:   5 - 1 - 6 - 7
Race 7:   8 - 13 - 7 - 9
Race 8:   4 - 3 - 5 - 2
Race 9:   10 - 6 - 8 - 5
Race 10:   14 - 3 - 7 - 1

PLAYS

 
RACE 3: BEAU BELLE (#6)
Quiet Dignity didn’t take much money in her U.S. debut, but that was primarily due to the presence of two stakes-quality fillies, Varenka and Catch a Bid, both of whom finished ahead of her. Quiet Dignity was asked to negotiate distances of 9 and 10 furlongs in France as a 2-yearold, so she probably is one that wants every bit of ground she can get. However, she might be favored here and she needs to improve on that U.S. debut. My top pick is recent maiden winner Beau Belle, and she becomes even more dangerous after the scratch of her expected pace rival English Soul. This 4-year-old has earned plenty of speed figures that put her in the conversation, but most of those were achieved against maidens. She finally broke through with a long overdue win last time, doing so over this same course and distance. Her two 2019 turf efforts are arguably the strongest of her career, so it's possible that she's just finally putting it all together as a 4-year-old. She’s settled for second on more than a few occasions, but that career tally is a little misleading. She’s actually a game little filly with a ton of fight in her, and she relishes some give in the ground, which she should get on Thursday. She also figures to get a great trip right on or near the lead without English Soul in the mix.
 

RACE 4: GRIT AND GLORY (#5)
Derby Memories figures to go off as the favorite here off his runaway maiden win during the first week of the meet. Getting back on the dirt for the first time since his 2-year-old season, he showed early speed and just galloped the field into the ground, winning by nearly 15 lengths while stopping the clock in an unusually fast time for the class level. That 108 TimeformUS Speed Figure makes him pretty formidable in this spot, but he is stepping way up in class for his first start against winner. The Danny Gargan barn has been going strongly at this meet, but I’m not sure that I want to take a very short price on this horse. I prefer his main rival Sargeant Drive, who is looking to regain top form after getting off to a slow start in 2019. While he didn’t run particularly well in those dirt starts at the beginning of the year, he also didn’t have his best chance in a couple of those races. A mile was too short for him in February, and then he was compromised by a very slow pace in that April race at Keeneland. I won’t hold his turf start against him last time, since he never possessed much of a turn of foot on that surface. This 9-furlong distance on the Saratoga dirt should allow him to make use of his greatest strength, his stamina. I’m using both of these, but my top pick is Grit and Glory. This horse has yet to run quite as fast as the aforementioned two runners, but he’s only a 3-year-old with a right to improve. He ran three races in quick succession at Churchill Downs through the spring, and it’s a good sign that Stanley Hough is running him in a protected spot for his first start at NYRA. He appears to be doing well in his recent workouts and I wouldn’t be shocked to see him take a step forward. Since his return to training, Stanley Hough is 8 for 24 (33%, $3.54 ROI) in dirt routes.
 

RACE 8: SHAMROCK KID (#4)
The two most reliable options in this New York-bred optional claimer are Blugrascat’s Smile and Storm Prophet. Yet, they’re reliable in the sense that they are likely to show up with consistent efforts in a spot like this. They’re not necessarily reliable to cross the wire in front. Storm Prophet is not exactly a winning type, having finished second or third nearly 6 times more often than he’s won in his 28-race career. Bluegrascat’s Smile hasn’t faired much better over the past few seasons, having lost 14 straight starts dating back to March 2018. They both fit perfectly at this class level and have no trouble handling the distance, but I just don’t want to take either at a short price. The problem with this race is that the other options aren’t quite as appealing at first glance. I don’t like the Saratoga race that Fiery Opal exits two back, and it seems like Calculated Risker has seen better days at this point. I’ll use both somewhere underneath, but I want to go in a different direction for my top pick. Shamrock Kid may not seem like the most likely candidate to improve going this 1 1/8 miles distance, but he could find himself in a favorable scenario here. He’s run some of his best races going a mile, so it’s conceivable that added distance may actually work to his benefit. Furthermore, there is not much early speed signed on for this race, so he should work out a great trip, either setting the pace or stalking a moderate tempo. Luis Saez is known to be aggressive in these situations and he’s ridden this horse well in the past. Rick Schosberg got him to run a big race off the claim and I won’t hold his last start against him since 6 1/2 furlongs against top company is just too short for him.
 

RACE 9: HOTSY TOTSY (#10)
Catch a Bid figures to go off as the clear favorite in the Riskaverse after the early scratch of Varenka, who won the Lake Placid on Saturday. Catch a Bid should appreciate that foe’s absence, since she was unable to hold her off when she made her first start against winners last time. Nevertheless, Catch a Bid still improved on her debut speed figure and again displayed an impressive turn of foot, separating herself from the rest of that field. If she runs as well in her stakes debut, she figures to be pretty tough to beat. However, there are some other talented fillies in this field and I wouldn’t accept too short a price on this favorite. Chad Brown’s other entrant New and Improved should not be dismissed. I wouldn’t make too much of the fact that Castellano lands here instead of Catch a Bid, since there was a game of musical jockeys going on with Varenka unlikely to participate. New and Improved merits consideration based on her strong debut performance, in which she launched an effective stretch bid and was going away at the finish. I don’t think that was the strongest maiden field, but she certainly accomplished the victory the right way. They’re both dangerous, but my top pick is the European shipper Hotsy Totsy. This filly showed real promise in England earlier this year, easily taking down a pair of allowance races in May before tackling much tougher company in the Sandringham Stakes last time. She was held up at the back of the pack for a long way and had to wait longer that Jamie Spencer had intended when stuck in traffic two furlongs from home. Yet she launched a strong late bid once clear. Now she lands in Christophe Clement’s barn off just a brief layoff and she appears to be training well for her U.S. debut. There’s rain in the forecast on Wednesday, and she shouldn’t mind a little give in the ground.