by David Aragona
 

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PICKS

 
Race 1:   3 - 2 - 9 - 4
Race 2:   4 - 2 - 1 - 3
Race 3:   3 - 6 - 1 - 2
Race 4:   3 - 1 - 2 - 6
Race 5:   9 - 1 - 7 - 3
Race 6:   1 - 8 - 4 - 5
Race 7:   6 - 1 - 2 - 7
Race 8:   7 - 8 - 2 - 5
Race 9:   8 - 5 - 4 - 9
Race 10:   2 - 6 - 10 - 5

TOP PLAYS

 
RACE 2: STORMY’S SONG (#4)
The two fillies likely to attract the most support are Miss Mimosa and Tigalalu. The former tries to stretch back out in distance after disappointing as the favorite sprinting last time. It’s possible that she needed that race after getting two months away from the races, but the tote support that she garnered would suggest otherwise. She ran well going a mile two back, but did so against a particularly weak field for the level. There are no starts in this lineup either, but I’m somewhat skeptical about her handling this group going 9 furlongs. Tigalalu inspires a bit more confidence going this distance, since she finished a decent third going this far last time when meeting a more accomplished crew. The winner of that race, Alberobello, looks bound for stakes, and all the runners chasing her were hindered by a speed-biased surface. Tigalalu ran a speed figure in her debut that would make her competitive here and I think she’s probably the horse to beat. Perhaps it’s not wise to look beyond the favorites in this spot, but I’m somewhat intrigued by Stormy’s Song stretching out in distance. This filly has to be frustrating for her connections, as she showed plenty of ability when winning her debut at Belmont last year but they’ve had trouble figuring out what exactly she does best ever since then. It originally appeared that she might be a dirt sprinter, but she’s proven that she’s not quite fast enough to keep up with the type of speedy fillies that usually show up in those races. Some turf experiments yielded mixed results, so now they’re trying something new: two turns on the dirt. While she’s never gone this far, she was tested over a mile in her second career start, and it was actually one of the best races of her career. The early pace of that race was legitimate, and she did well to hang on for third behind the improving Divine Miss Grey. Looking through that field, horses that were involved in the pace of that June 30 race did well in subsequent starts. Stormy’s Song is a big, rangy filly who gives the impression that she should want more ground. Her undoing in shorter races is that she’s been unable to get into an early rhythm as others go too quickly for her, so perhaps a slower pace will allow her to attain her preferred position up on the pace and keep on going.
 

RACE 6: CONSTRUCT (#1)
Our Honor figures to go off as a heavy favorite as he drops in for a tag for the first time. This horse has earned the fastest dirt speed figures in the field, and has done so racing against maiden special weigh company. If he merely maintains his current form, he is very likely to win this race. While he did face a strong field in his debut at Gulfstream Park, that was not the case last time at Parx. The horse that defeated him was a longshot that would not look particularly formidable were he a part of this field. Our Honor did run better with the context of the race, making an early move to the lead over a tiring track, but I don’t think he’s invincible off that performance. Runners like this have routinely gotten bet down to massive underlays at this meet, so I’m reluctant to pick this colt. Some others have run speed figures that make them competitive here, but many of those runners have had many chances. I’m most interested in another lightly raced runner, Construct, on the stretch-out. This son of Curlin was sent route distances on the turf in his first couple of starts, and he didn’t show much ability. He did at least get the distance when they sent him 1 1/8 miles two back, as he appeared hopeless beaten at the top of the stretch, but battled on moderately well to secure fourth as others failed to stay. While he was facing a very weak field in his dirt debut last time, I don’t think this horse is one that wants to go a sprint distance. He should appreciate the added ground this time, and Todd Pletcher typically gets horses to perform in these situations. Over the past five years, Pletcher is 11 for 22 (50 percent, $5.13 ROI) in maiden races at 1 1/8 miles at Saratoga, and he’s 4 for 8 in maiden claiming races. It’s also a good sign that John Velazquez is riding him back.
 

RACE 7: DREAM PASSAGE (#6)
The Michael Dubb entry makes for a formidable pair. The one likely to attract the bulk of the support is Samara, who makes her first start off the claim for Jason Servis. This barn is one of the best claiming outfits in the country, especially with its turf sprinters, and this filly had already run well enough to win this race when previously in the barn of Tom Albertrani. It’s a good sign that she showed some life on the dirt last time, and she looms as the most likely winner of this race. I’m not much of a fan of her running mate Hoponthebusgus, but she, too, has run races that would make her competitive. While I respect the entry, these types of couplings usually go off at very short prices, so I’d rather look elsewhere. Dream Passage looks like the right alternative to me. It took her a long time to break out of the maiden ranks, but she actually ran a number of races that would make her a player in this spot. She registered a decisive win over a respectable group of males on July 7. She was flattered when that race’s runner-up, Ghost Giant, returned to win his next start, validating the speed figure that she earned. She was claimed by Brad Cox out of that race, but she got rained off the turf in her first start for this new barn last time out. Nevertheless, that performance was encouraging, as she actually put in a solid late run over a surface that she doesn’t relish. Now she gets back on turf, where she figures to take a step forward. At a bigger price, I also want to throw Diamond Jen Brady into the mix, as she actually has some pedigree to handle grass. However, her trainer has a poor record in this situation.
 

RACE 9: SWEET STING (#8)
Chad Brown sends out the likely favorite in this Riskaverse, as Monmouth shipper Tapit Today makes her New York debut in this race. She has won very impressively in each of her last two starts, and it’s a positive sign that Brown has elected to target this ambitious spot. Her recent speed figures appear to be legitimate, as she absolutely dominated some decent fillies in Blame Henny and Rose Velvet last time, doing so after making a wide, sustained run into the lane. If she continues her forward trajectory into this spot she will be a formidable presence, but there are certainly others to consider. Monte Crista also makes her first start in New York after dominating some Mid-Atlantic fields through the early summer. She suffered her first loss on turf last time in the Ta Wee at Indiana Downs, but she did not get a great trip that day after some trouble at the start. She can certainly rebound here. I’m using both of the aforementioned runners, but the horse that I want to bet is Sweet Sting. I thought this filly showed some ability over the winter at Gulfstream, and she has clearly improved since then. Her third-place effort in the Memories of Silver was respectable, and she appeared to indicate that she had turned a corner when closing to be second behind the superior mare La Moneda last time. La Moneda returned to win again, validating the speed figure that Sweet Sting was assigned for that effort. It’s a good sign that she’s picked up the pace in her recent workouts, and I think she’s one that can continue moving forward into this race.
 

RACE 10: FIXED POINT (#2) / LONHTWIST (#6)
This is one of the trickiest races on the entire card. My primary opinion here is that I’m not convinced Identity Politics deserves to be a substantial favorite – and he is very likely to be one. He did earn a fast speed figure in his debut at Belmont last time, but I think that race may not have been quite as strong as it seems. Greek Alphabet won it, but he’s not necessarily even best on turf. The horse that was supposed to be the main rival, End of Spirits, underperformed, and a longshot that seemed hopeless on form finished a close fourth. Furthermore, one would assume that Chad Brown would want to stretch out a horse like this. Cutting these types back to 5 1/2 furlongs usually isn’t a sign of confidence. There are plenty of other intriguing options to consider at better prices. Measure Twice and Siena Magic both appear to be training well for their debuts as they got out for capable barns. Grandmas Favorite showed some ability last year in turf sprints. Point of Humor has the pedigree to move up on this surface and comes out of an impossible spot. I’ll use all of these in some capacity, but there are two horses in particular that I want to bet. Lonhtwist has run well in both career starts. He showed plenty of speed in his debut on dirt and understandably faded against a very tough field. He was bred to improve on turf, and he did exactly that next time, setting the pace before just fading in the final furlong. That was probably a stronger field than the one he meets here, and I’m not convinced that he necessarily wants to go that far. This is a drastic cutback in distance, but he has real ability and his low-profile connections will ensure a square price. He’s one that I have to use, but the horse that intrigues me most at a better price is Fixed Point. This is just an incredibly positive trainer switch, to go from 4 percent trainer Jaime Mejia to Phil Serpe, who routinely wins races on this circuit. All things considered, Fixed Point actually ran well in his turf starts for the prior barn down in Florida. He finished well after a slow start on Jan. 19, and then he ran better than the speed figure suggests on Mar. 1. That race has proven to be a strong one, as both Dirty and Too Much Data returned to run significantly faster in their subsequent starts. I think Fixed Point has run some of the best turf sprints of any horse in this race, and there’s a strong likelihood that he will run the best race of his career in this spot.