by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona
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Race 1: 11 - 2 - 9 - 1
Race 2: 8 - 3 - 5 - 7
Race 3: 10 - 7 - 8 - 5
Race 4: 4 - 5 - 1/1A - 6
Race 5: 4 - 5 - 7 - 10
Race 6: 7 - 6 - 4 - 10
Race 7: 3 - 11 - 8 - 10
Race 8: 3 - 8 - 1 - 5
Race 9: 2 - 11 - 7 - 3
Race 10: 3 - 5 - 4 - 8
RACE 4: BORN FOR A STORM (#4)
There are many contenders to consider in this deep New York-bred allowance race. Jewel Can Disco was installed as the morning line favorite, but he was well-meant last time when beating a very weak field to break his maiden, and I don’t trust him to handle this stretch-out to seven furlongs. Bourbon Empire would be a major player if he can run back to his last dirt effort, in which he overcame a speed-favoring track to get up for third behind the talented T Loves a Fight. I thought it was somewhat odd that his connections switched him to turf after that, but now he gets back on the right surface as a new gelding. I’ll certainly use him, but my top pick is Born for a Storm, who makes his second start off the layoff. I really liked this horse’s efforts in the summer of 2016. He was a strong maiden winner over this surface before finishing second to the talented stakes performer Diversify at Belmont. He was a bit of a disappointment in his return last month, but he got an uncomfortable trip that day. He was racing between horses in mid-pack for much of the way and just could never really get into a comfortable rhythm. I think Javier Castellano is going to have him more forwardly placed this time, and I expect a much-improved effort.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,5,6
RACE 5: QUEENOFTHECHANNEL (#4)
Merilore is the horse to beat after just missing by a nose at this level last time in a blanket finish. However, she got a great ride from an inside draw that day, and now must overcome the far outside post position in a large field. I’ll use her, but I think there’s an intriguing longshot in this race that has a chance to pull off the upset. Queenofthechannel has run better than it appears in her recent turf starts. Three back, she did well to be sixth against a much tougher allowance group going a distance that is too far for her. Two back, she was taken too far off the pace when working out a wide trip over a rail-biased course. And then last time, she didn’t have any obvious trouble, but she was two- to three-wide throughout in a race dominated by horses that rode the rail. She gets some subtle class relief in this spot, and is likely to outrun her odds.
Win/Place: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 5,7,10,12
RACE 7: EIGHTH COMMANDMENT (#3)
The two horses to beat are Table for Six and Khaleesi Kat. The former has shown an aversion to winning races, having finished second or third in eight straight starts. Khaleesi Kat is the more enticing option as she drops in class, but she’s incredibly dependent on pace and must work out a trip. I'll use both of them, but I want to go shopping for a better price. My best alternative is Eighth Commandment. Even though she was soundly beaten by Table for Six two back, I thought she ran a very respectable race, closing through traffic in the lane. Horses just weren't running on from that far back, and her outside post position forced her rider to take her farther off the pace than she otherwise would have been. You can ignore her dirt race last week, and I think she's a filly that is really going to appreciate stretching out to 1 3/16 miles on turf.
Win/Place: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 6,8,10,11
RACE 9: LET IT RIDE MOM (#2)
This is undoubtedly the most interesting race on the card. The two shortest prices on the morning line are the pair coming out of an allowance race at Belmont July 9. Rubilinda, who is stuck on the also-eligible list, failed to run down Cherry Lodge that day, but probably ran the better race, closing into a slow pace. They’re both talented, but I don’t want either one in this spot. They’ve drawn terrible post positions and are unproven around two turns. Defiant Honor is another runner to consider. According to her connections, she displaced her palate in the Lake George last time, and has since had a surgical procedure to correct the issue. Her prior effort against allowance company gives her a big chance here, but she, too, is stuck in a far outside post position. Going a mile on the inner course, that is not where you want to be. Given the aforementioned factors, I think this race is extremely wide-open, and there a particular longshot that really intrigues me. Let It Ride Mom made her turf debut last time going 5 1/2 furlongs in the Coronation Cup. Breaking from the rail, which is not ideal in these turf sprints, she had to steady behind horses on the run down the backstretch, ultimately getting shuffled out to last place by the time they got the far turn. She was never fully clear until late in the stretch, but came running with a strong kick nonetheless. I remember paddock analyst Maggie Wolfendale noting before that race that she was a big fan of this horse getting on the turf, and I really don’t think we got to see the best of Let It Ride Mom on that occasion. She handled two turns on a synthetic surface as a two-year-old, so this stretch-out may actually benefit her. Furthermore, she has a bit of tactical speed, and is well-drawn down towards the inside. I love that Irad Ortiz is hopping aboard, and think the stars may be aligned for this filly to make a splash at a big price.
Win/Place: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 3,4,7,8,10,11,12
Trifecta: 3,7,11 with 3,4,7,8,10,11,12 with 2