PICKS

Race 1:   3 - 2 - 4 - 6
Race 2:   5 - 6 - 10 - 2
Race 3:   4 - 3 - 7 - 6
Race 4:   6 - 4 - 7 - 2
Race 5:   7 - 8 - 5 - 2
Race 6:   3 - 7 - 2 - 8
Race 7:   1 - 5 - 8 - 4
Race 8:   1 - 8 - 7 - 2
Race 9:   7 - 4 - 3 - 10
Race 10:   1 - 6 - 7 - 5

PLAYS

(Guide - WIN: recommended win/key horse at fair odds; UPGRADE: value horses I picked underneath to consider upgrading in vertical/horizontal wagers; USE: runners to include in vertical exotic wagers with Win horse)

RACE 2: CANT KEEP ME DOWN (#5)

There appear to be some talented runners in this maiden special weight for the 2-year-olds. Playlist (#10) seems likely to take money for Wesley Ward as she debuts off a nice series of workouts. Though she possesses a dirt route pedigree, she’s actually drilled well on the turf in recent weeks, particularly in that last workout on Aug. 14. Ward hasn’t had his typical success with 2-year-olds this year, though he’s having a very strong Saratoga meet. Lady Caraggio (#6) is another who has seemingly shown some talent in the mornings. Bill Mott hasn’t drilled her on the turf at all, but she’s looked pretty quick in her dirt workouts. She typically travels aggressively and seems like a powerful mover, so sprinting figures to suit her. The one issue is that Bill Mott has pretty poor statistics with first time starters in turf sprints. My top pick is Cant Keep Me Down (#5), who debuts for Todd Pletcher. This barn is 3 for 8 (38%, $2.61 ROI) with 2-year-old first time starters in Saratoga turf sprints over the past 5 years. I don’t mind the lack of turf works as this one is clearly bred for this surface. She’s by 13% turf sprint sire The Factor out of a dam who won on turf, from a European female family. I like the way this horse has been training into the race and she appears to move like a grass runner in the mornings.

WIN: #5 Cant Keep Me Down, at 3-1 or greater
USE: 6

RACE 4: ROYAL MOVER (#6)

Ee Yah (#7) could go favored in this maiden claimer for 2-year-olds as he drops in for a tag following a decent runner-up finish on debut at Monmouth. That has proven to be a strong race, as winner Great Navigator returned to finish a good second in the Grade 3 Sanford in his next start. Additionally, the third-place finisher returned to win with an improved speed figure. He makes sense as he switches into the barn of David Jacobson, who is seeking his first victory since a recent return to training. Yet I prefer a different runner from that same Monmouth race. Royal Mover (#6) finished fourth, about 4 lengths behind Ee Yah when they met on debut, though the Pletcher runner was finishing better and galloped out well. The major difference between them is that Royal Mover has gotten in an additional start, having raced at Monmouth again in late July. While it might appear that he regressed that day, the trip just did not work out. He showed improved tactical speed on the backstretch, but was then eased off the pace and found himself in a difficult position pinned down on the rail. He had some run in upper stretch, but could never get out from in behind a tiring foe while stuck on the rail until it was too late. I think he’s better than his past performances indicate. Furthermore, Todd Pletcher is 7 for 12 (58%, $4.28 ROI) with 2-year-old maidens making their third career starts at Saratoga.

WIN: #6 Royal Mover, at 2-1 or greater

RACE 6: QUEEN BOURBON (#3)

Rocky Sky (#8) figures to go favored here as she stretches out in distance for Chad Brown. This once well-regarded filly is still seeking her first win in this country after disappointing at a short price last time. She found herself in a seemingly weak race for this level that day and yet still couldn’t capitalize on a strong pace setup when attempting to rally up the rail in the lane. It’s unclear if this dramatic stretch-out in distance will suit her, though the slower pace could allow her to attain forward position. Among those who could take money, I prefer Light Stars (#7). Christophe Clement rarely has his European imports ready to fire their best efforts first time in this country, and this filly ran like one who needed a race off the bench. She was away awkwardly and then got rank through the opening stages, fighting Joel Rosario’s restraint for several furlongs. She ultimately settled and passed some tired runners late, suggesting there’s more in the tank. She feels like more of a certainty to successfully stretch out. I suppose Beside Herself (#2) is a threat to wire the field if she is ridden aggressively. She has used those tactics successfully in the past, though the 12-furlong trip seems like a tall order for this 3-year-old taking on elders. My top pick is Queen Bourbon (#3). I acknowledge that she got a perfect trip when she won her N1X condition two back at Belmont, where she saved ground early and produced an effective closing kick when angled out in the stretch. However, she got the wrong trip when she returned 21 days later at Saratoga. Breaking from the rail, she got shuffled back into the first turn and then made a premature, wide move up to stalk the pace. That race was dominated by horses who were ridden more patiently, and I’m hoping we see Jose Ortiz resort to those tactics this time.

WIN: #3 Queen Bourbon, at 4-1 or greater
USE: 2,7

RACE 7: JAMES JONES (#1)

This N1X allowance event looks totally wide open, as you can make a case for many different options. In races like this, trips are often of utmost importance, so I picked the horse who I’m most confident will get the right trip. James Jones (#1) figures to vie for favoritism as a Chad Brown trained runner in a confusing race, but I do believe he is the most likely winner. He handled 9 furlongs when he broke his maiden at Churchill Downs back in early May with a solid effort. While he’s lost both starts since then, I don’t think he’s run quite as bad as it looks. I don’t want to hold his performance over a chewed up grass course against him in the Audubon, and last time at Monmouth he actually performed admirably. He was facing a decent field in that New Jersey race at this level, and he seemed reluctant to go through a hole on the rail until it was too late. Now he’s getting a rider upgrade to Flavien Prat, and he’s drawn inside at a time when the temporary rails have come down on the Mellon turf course. Among his main rivals is Impulsiveness (#8), who won his turf debut here last month. He feels like one who should relish added ground given his damside pedigree, but he got a perfect trip last time and is now stepping up against a tougher field. Another horse I want to consider at a bigger price is Dripping Gold (#5). He was an impressive debut winner up here last summer and it may seem like he hasn’t run back to that performance since. However, I thought he actually put in a decent performance last time when he was 3-wide throughout and forced to make an early move to challenge for the lead on the far turn. I won’t be surprised to see him go forward here with the addition of blinkers and an aggressive rider on board.

WIN: #1 James Jones, at 3-1 or greater
UPGRADE: #5 Dripping Gold, at 10-1 or greater

RACE 8: HANDBELLE (#1)

I’m somewhat skeptical of the likely favorites in this maiden event. Tizzy in the Sky (#5) figures to attract strong support off her runner-up finish on debut at Belmont. She took money and ran well, just getting nailed in the last furlong after traveling strongly into the race. I do find it a little curious that she’s now being transferred to a new trainer, though Jose Camejo has had success at this meet. Liquidity Provider (#7) should also take money off her solid debut performance. She looked like a winner in upper stretch that day, but got passed from the inside by a longshot in the closing stages. Both of these fillies were primed to win on debut and didn’t quite get it done, so I’m reluctant to assume they’ll improve second time out. Alessia (#2) is another second time starter to consider, as she did put in a nice effort at Keeneland. However, the subsequent layoff and spotty worktab are a little concerning. I’m intrigued by both Bill Mott trained runners. The more logical of the two is Precursory (#8), who has earned speed figures that are comparable to both favorites in her recent starts. She also seems like one that may benefit from a slight turnback after trying a mile twice in a row. My top pick is the bigger price Handbelle (#1). I know she looks light on speed figures, but I thought she showed some promise in both races last year while racing a bit greenly. It appears that she’s been working well for her return down at Belmont, and I have a feeling that we’re going to see an improved version of her as she makes her 3-year-old debut.

WIN: #1 Handbelle, at 7-1 or greater
USE: 2,7,8

RACE 9: GINA ROMANTICA (#7)

My primary take on this Riskaverse is that I don’t want to settle for short prices, since it just looks so wide open. Horses like Canisy (#5) and Customer List (#6) can obviously win, but they figure to be among the favorites and I don’t think either one has a significant advantage. Canisy has some talent, but she benefited from a perfect trip in her front-running victory last time. Customer List had a rough go of it in that race, clipping heels early before getting hampered by a slow pace. Yet she didn’t finish as well as I would have hoped and I’m starting to question if she’s the same horse we saw last year. Among those with turf experience, I’m most interested in Linda’s Gift (#4), who has been compromised in each of her last two starts. She was wide every step of the way in that allowance race won by Canisy two back. Then last time she was hindered by a slow pace and being forced to make an outside run over a turf course favoring forward rail runners. She’s in better form than it appears and should be a fair price. Yet there are some intriguing first time turfers to consider. Most looking for such a runner will gravitate towards A Mo Reay (#10), who has been working well on grass recently. I’m more interested in Gina Romantica (#7), who is my top pick. I know she doesn’t have obvious turf pedigree, but Into Mischief is an underrated turf sire, winning with a strong 14% of his turf route starters. The dam has thrown two very good dirt horses, though one sibling was a turf and synthetic specialist. I thought her turf workout on Aug. 5 was subtly positive, as she appeared to get over the surface very well while always wanting to do more than her rider allowed. I know she was cut out to be a dirt horse originally, but I think she may be getting on the right surface now and she’s supposed to be a generous price.

WIN: #7 Gina Romantica, at 7-1 or greater
UPGRADE: #4 Linda's Gift, at 9-1 or greater

RACE 10: SPETTRO (#1)

Digital Future (#6) should go favored here as he drops in for a tag for the first time while returning from a lengthy layoff. Chad Brown has good statistics with runners dropping on turf off layoffs, but he’s primarily had success with routers in this situation. This horse once showed some promise, and didn’t get a particularly clever ride in his race prior to the layoff. He’s probably just getting dropped into a spot where he’s meant to win, but he’s also going to be a very short price for connections that tend to get overbet. I do prefer him to the other dropdown Uncle George (#7), who is just tough to take on top. He’s a plodder who breaks slowly and often leaves himself with too much to do. In theory, the cutback to 5 1/2 furlongs could work for him, since he figures to get some more pace. I’m just skeptical that he can work out a trip. My top pick is Spettro (#1). As noted above, the rails have come down on the Mellon turf course this week, so we may see a situation where you want to be riding the hedge, and this horse figures to get an inside trip from his rail draw. It remains to be seen if he’s quick enough to make the lead, but I do think he possesses more speed than his position on the Pace Projector indicates. I think he’s shown some subtle improvement in recent starts. He ran well when shortened up in distance two back against allowance company, and last time he was involved in a pace that came apart. This seems like a realistic class level and I don’t mind the turnback.

WIN: #1 Spettro, at 7-2 or greater