PICKS

Race 1:   1 - 6 - 3 - 2
Race 2:   2 - 5 - 3
Race 3:   7 - 5 - 1
Race 4:   1 - 5 - 2 - 4
Race 5:   8 - 2
Race 6:   4 - 2 - 3 - 2B
Race 7:   8 - 6 - 4
Race 8:   1 - 2 - 4 - 6
Race 9:   1 - 2 - 3 - 8

PLAYS

RACE 4: CORKMAN (#1)
Judicial Restraint and Height figure to vie for favoritism in this spot, and neither one does a whole lot for me. The former seems a little better suited to this distance as he’s been finding his best stride too late going slightly shorter distances. He’s bred to run all day as a son of Tonalist, but he’s yet to earn a particularly formidable speed figure, so he may have to improve to beat this field. Furthermore, he’s a bit of a plodder in a race that doesn’t feature any early speed. Height’s tactical speed could give him a slight advantage. While it seems like he ran well going this distance last time, he had every opportunity to get past the winner and just hung through the final furlong. I think this race is open to more runners than these two favorites. Tactician did not run well behind Height last time, but he had a slightly uncomfortable trip and may have needed that start off the layoff. He ran races for the Mark Casse barn that would beat this field, so he figures to be tough if Robertino Diodoro can merely get him back to that form. I’m using him prominently, but my top pick is Corkman. This horse is half of an entry, but I don’t think his entrymate Bubba Chuck will drag down his price all that much. He was overmatched when last seen at Monmouth facing a better maiden special weight field. I can’t fault him for failing to make an impact that day, and he showed some promise two back. The pace of that July 5 race was moderate, which worked against him, and Corkman was running on best of all at the end. I think he’s going to appreciate the 9 furlongs against this company.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,4,5

RACE 7: VICTORY KINGDOM (#8)
With this race coming off the turf there are a limited number of options. Introduced clearly has the best dirt form of those who are likely to stay in this field. She's won both of her main track starts and earned a decent speed figure when she took down that Miss Disco at Laurel last summer. She's coming into this race in career form and is very logical as the favorite. However, I would want to take a small shot against her with the Australian shipper Victory Kingdom. This mare has only run on turf in the southern hemisphere but her new connections would be wise to give her a chance over the dirt in this off-the-turf event. While her sire Animal Kingdom gets mostly turf horses, her dam by dirt sire Yankee Victor is a half-sister to champion dirt mare Beholder as well as top dirt sire Into Mischief. She's reportedly been working well on the dirt and wouldn't have to beat much in this depleted field.

Win: 8

RACE 8: MISCHIEF AFOOT (#1)
If Texas Swing has progressed at all since the spring, he’s supposed to beat this field. He won a fast maiden race in February and then was hardly disgraced behind Kentucky Derby-bound King Guillermo in a fast Tampa Bay Derby. It would stand to reason that a 3-year-old who made just three starts over the winter would still have upside as he returns in the summer. Yet I’m a little skeptical we’re going to see such progression from this horse. His workouts leading up to this return have me a little concerned. He doesn’t appear to be particularly enthusiastic about his morning training and was undoubtedly outworked by his uncoupled stablemate One Eyed Jack in that most recent drill on Aug. 20. To my eye, he’s not going about his business with the same ease or vigor we saw prior to his races over the winter. He’ll be favored, but I have to take a shot against him at a short price. I suppose it might be tempting to upgrade One Eyed Jack if he is indeed outworking Texas Swing, but I find this horse tough to endorse based on his form. He looked like one with potential for Chad Brown last year, but was extremely disappointing in two starts for Pletcherlast winter. The best alternative I can find is Mischief Afoot. This horse showed some promise as a 2-year-old, finishing a close third in a salty October maiden race at Belmont before tailing off a bit at Aqueduct. After getting a prep on turf in his 3-year-old debut, he stepped forward last time at Monmouth, earning a solid 101 TimeformUS Speed Figure for his two-turn victory. I’m not concerned about the slight stretch-out to 1 1/8 miles given that he’s a half-brother to nine-furlong specialist Grumps Little Tots. I expect another good effort with hot-riding Luis Saez aboard.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,3,4,6
Trifecta: 1,2 with 1,2 with ALL