by David Aragona
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Race 1: 6 - 4 - 2 - 5
Race 2: 1 - 6 - 9 - 7
Race 3: 2 - 1 - 7 - 6
Race 4: 1 - 7 - 5 - 8
Race 5: 2 - 1 - 5 - 8
Race 6: 7 - 1 - 9 - 8
Race 7: 8 - 11 - 4 - 10
Race 8: 8 - 4 - 5 - 3
Race 9: 7 - 8 - 6 - 4
Race 10: 9 - 5 - 13 - 7
RACE 2: MINSKY MOMENT (#1)
Cross Border is the horse to beat as he goes for his third victory of the Saratoga meet in as many starts. He’s a head away from being undefeated over his last 5 starts, though two of those came prior to a lengthy layoff. He was very impressive in his win over starter allowance company two back, but he was pretty lucky to get the job done as the 4-5 favorite when he returned to New York-bred company last time. While the running line makes it appear as if he won comfortably, you can make an argument that third-place finisher Southern King and fifth place finisher Graded on a Curve both had tougher trips. The latter almost certainly would have won had he not been held up in traffic for almost the entire stretch drive. Yet, Cross Border does have the pace in his favor, since there is very little speed in this field and the Pace Projector is predicting he’ll be up close to the pace once again. I’m using him defensively, but Chad Brown has a couple of intriguing alternatives. Some will gravitate towards the lightly raced Gambler’s Fallacy, who closed well to be second in his return from the layoff last time. I suppose he has more upside than others in this race, but I prefer Brown’s other horse, Minsky Moment. This 5 -year-old isn’t exactly a winning type, having finished in the money 9 times with just 2 wins from 10 career starts. However, he is arguably best on turf despite having never won on this surface. He was beaten by stakes-quality foes Red Knight and Gucci Factor is in his two turf attempts last year, and he just got the wrong ride in his return to this surface last time. While Macagone ran off on the lead that day, the pace wasn’t actually fast at all, and Minsky Moment was left with far too much ground to make up in the lane. He figures to appreciate the stretch-out to 9 furlongs.
RACE 4: GAME BOY BENNY (#1)
Tenure may go off as the favorite in this race after losing by a frustrating half-length at this level a few weeks ago. He appeared to have the victory all sewn up coming to the eighth pole, but a resurgent Fooch, whom he had put away at the quarter pole, came back to beat him. Tenure clearly fits well at this level and handles the distances, but he’s facing a tougher field in this spot than he met la st time. Some intriguing new players make this a more ambitious assignment. Seven Gems figures to attract support off his series of impressive speed figures, but most of those were earned around two turns. It’s unclear if he’ll be quite as effective in a true turf sprint. I could also include Surge Pricing and Wild One Forever, both of whom are making their first start off the claim following a win. However, my top pick is first-time turfer Game Boy Benny. This horse has earned some eye-catching triple-digit TimeformUS Speed Figures in his last three dirt starts. He’s very fast out of the gate and he proved that he can throw down a fast 5 1/2 furlongs in that maiden win last time. The only major obstacle is the switch to turf, and I think he has enough pedigree to handle it. His dam raced on the dirt far more than the turf, but ran on e of the best races of her career on turf. She’s produced 2 siblings that have won on the turf, one of which was a full brother by Benny the Bull. Mike Dini did a good job with this horse, but George Weaver should be capable off the claim.
RACE 5: BRONXVILLE (#2)
Business Cycle is clearly the horse to beat, but I don’t trust this runner as he drops in for this low-level claiming tag. He’s a 6-year-old who has always trained well, but clearly has physical issues which have prevented him from fulfilling his potential. He’s only managed to get in one start in the past 6 months and that was a disappointing effort at Monmouth. This dropdown is similar to that of Allured for the same barn, and that one disappointed at a very short price a few weeks ago. If I’m going to take a shot against Business Cycle, I want to do it with a horse who is going to be on the front end. That’s likely to be Bronxville, who actually ran quite well in his return from the layoff last time. That August 7 affair was one that fell apart in the late stages, and Bronxville was keen to go while racing 4-wide of the speeds around the far turn. He easily passed many of those dueling inside of him in the lane and briefly challenged the eventual runner-up before fading in the late stages. Seven furlongs may be a bit of a stretch for this horse, but he won going 6 1/2 furlongs two back and he has a right to put forth a better effort in his second start off the layoff.
RACE 7: SARATOGA BEAUTY (#8)
Now that Critical Value has drawn into this race, she is going to be very difficult to beat. This filly was unlucky to lose a head bob in her debut when nosed out by her stablemate Thea’s Theme. That pair finished over 6 lengths ahead of the rest of the field in a race that earned a decent enough speed figure for the level. However, Critical Value was obviously ready to fire in her debut, and she got a great trip from Junior Alvarado. One filly who was not quite as well prepared to win first time out was Saratoga Beauty, who finished fourth in that same race. She took all the money that day, getting bet down to 9-5 odds despite being a Monmouth shipper. Paco Lopez came into ride, and it would appear that the plan was to show speed. Yet Saratoga Beauty broke slowly and instead of allowing her to settle at the back and making a closing run, Paco Lopez made the rash decision to try to hustle her into the race. It predictably backfired, as she ran into a tight spot and had to steady. From there, the horse was never in a particularly comfortable spot and she had a right to fade in the stretch. I think these are the two main players in this race. I would also use a runner like Myawara, but she needs to run a lot better than she did in her debut.
RACE 8: CALIFORNIA NIGHT (#8)
Ray’swarrior has strung a series of strong efforts since returning to the dirt last winter. While he’s been fairly consistent, he’s only actually won two of those races, losing at short prices on a couple of occasions in between. However, he’s had excuses for some of those losses. He was cooked in an extremely fast pace in the Sunshine Millions in January, and then he was outrun to the lead after a flat-footed start two back. His ample speed was on display going 5 furlongs last time, and he’ll be tough to catch if he reproduces that form here. It’s good to see winning rider Paco Lopez coming in to ride, since few are better at hustling these types out of the gate. He’s very dangerous, as is his stablemate Mr. Dougie Fresh. This other Jason Servis runner’s form has looked similar to that of Ray'swarrior off the claim. Don’t hold his True North loss against him, since he was wide against a rail bias and actually ran well to be seventh. Yet he didn’t attract much tote support in his return to optional claiming company last time and he put in a somewhat dull effort, fading late while running on the rail. He still has to be considered a player in this spot, but there are valid concerns that he’s not quite as sharp as he was over the winter. I respect these two favorites, but I want to take a shot against them with California Night. He may not be as fast as Ray’swarrior in the early going, but he has at least drawn well outside of that foe. He was dueled into defeat by Uncontested last time, and that rival returned from his fourth place finish in the Kelly's Landing to nearly break the track record here a few weeks ago, earning a 124 TimeformUS Speed Figure. This colt has it in him to win a race like this, as he displayed going 7 furlongs three back. I like that Mike Maker has given him some time to recover from that last performance, and he appears to be working with much better energy for his return.
RACE 9: ENGLISH BREEZE (#7)
I have no major knocks against the likely favorite Sweet Melania. She earned a field-best 97 TimeformUS Speed Figure for her maiden victory last time in her turf debut. That day she defeated a couple of next-out winners, both of whom have returned to validate that high figure. Sweet Melania did benefit from a very slow pace in that turf win, but she kicked for home nicely and did well to hold the talented runner-up at bay. I’m using her prominently, but I also respect the two fillies to her inside. Crystalle was unlucky to be disqualified out of her debut victory last time, since she was much the best. The early pace was honest, but she ran right over the top of that field in the lane, running her final quarter mile in 22.10 seconds, according to Trakus. The fact that she’s technically still a maiden is nothing to hold against her, and she’s a major player in this spot. Yet my top pick is the New York-bred English Breeze. I loved this filly’s dam, Dreaming of Cara, and it’s nice to see her produce a talented horse. This daughter of English Channel didn’t take much money in that initial start, but she traveled like a winner all the way around the track. She seemed to want to do more than was necessary in the early going, as Manny Franco had trouble restraining her in behind horses for the first 3 furlongs. Once he swung her outside off cover, she quickly inhaled the leaders and kept extending her advantage through the lane. That 89 TimeformUS Speed Figure is the kind of number open-company maidens would typically run, so she appears to fit well against this group. I wouldn’t be surprised to see her a bit closer to the pace this time.