by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

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On every Friday through Sunday at the Saratoga meet, get exclusive access to betting tickets for David Aragona’s Top Plays, including multi-race bet constructions and other exotic tickets. Also get exclusive access to David's Highlight Horses, as well as opinions on all stakes races. Learn more

PICKS

 
Race 1:   1 - 8 - 6 - 4
Race 2:   13 - 1 - 5 - 14
Race 3:   6 - 4 - 3 - 1
Race 4:   3 - 2 - 1A - 6
Race 5:   9 - 11 - 5 - 2
Race 6:   5 - 7 - 3 - 9
Race 7:   8 - 11 - 12 - 1
Race 8:   2 - 5 - 1 - 7
Race 9:   7 - 8 - 4 - 2
Race 10:   10 - 9 - 4 - 8

TOP PLAYS

 
RACE 3: PLATINUM PRINCE (#6)
Hogy is clearly the horse to beat as he drops out of the Grade 3 Jaipur, in which he finished a solid fifth behind Disco Partner's world record performance. Also-rans Green Mask and Pure Sensation each returned out of that race to register a resounding victory in his subsequent start, illustrating the depth of this turf sprint division. Therefore, it's not necessarily a negative that he's dropping in for the high-priced claiming tag here in an attempt to avoid tougher stakes competition later in the meet. I certainly respect him, but I think another runner could offer value in this spot. Platinum Prince is capable of getting close to the top turf sprinters in the country when he's in form. He actually ran an excellent race last time behind Pure Sensation's devastating win in the Parx Dash, finishing less than a length out of second place despite getting carried out wide coming off the far turn. He possesses greater tactical speed than Hogy, so he should get the jump on that foe, and I think he's classier than the runners drawn toward the inside. His trainer, Michael Tomlinson, is quite effective in turf sprints, getting a 97 TimeformUS Trainer Rating in those races.

Win: 6
Trifecta: 4,6 with 4,6 with ALL

 

RACE 4: DEUCES HIGH (#3)
I know my pick in this spot is kind of crazy, but this seems like the sort of race that could produce a weird result. At first glance, it looks pretty logical. Royal Posse and Good Luck Gus are just better than their competition, right? Well, not so fast. Their recent performances have been decidedly subpar, and both are dropping in for the $40,000 tag in a race that does project to set up that well for a late runner. Becker’s Galaxy looks like a decent alternative, but I haven’t been thrilled with his recent efforts either and I’m not sure he’s at his best going this distance. Jet Black gets claimed by Robertino Diodoro, but he would need a serious form reversal if he were to get to the winner’s circle in this nine-furlong test. So, I’ve landed on Deuces High. I know his last race was terrible, but he might have needed it. Irad Ortiz basically eased him before they got the stretch as he realized the horse wasn’t going to be competitive that day, so don’t be too alarmed by the final margin. Rick Violette has worked him aggressively since that effort, which leads him to believe that we’ll see a fitter runner this time. Deuces High had previously run well going this distance at the Spa, and he may play out as the controlling speed with an aggressive Paco Lopez aboard. At a big price, I’m taking a shot.

Win/Place: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,2,6

 

RACE 7: ENCHANTING KITTEN (#8)
The Chad Brown runner likely to attract the most play is Kahrumana, who exits a maiden win over stablemate Durable Goods, who returned to impressively win here last week. While Durable Goods is probably destined for stakes races, I'm yet to be convinced that Kahrumana is quite that talented. She got a very favorable setup last time, setting a moderate pace along the inside before darting away late. She's drawn well again, but this is a tougher assignment. I actually prefer Chad's other runner, Enchanting Kitten. After winning her first start over a decent field at Gulfstream, she then finished a fast-closing second behind stakes winner Victory to Victory at Keeneland. She was then immediately thrown into the Wonder Again at Belmont, where she proved no match for subsequent Belmont Oaks winner New Money Honey. She was well beaten that day, but her performance was not as bad as it seems, considering that she was rank early, steadied when making a run around the far turn, and basically eased late. This time she figures to get an honest pace to close into and I think she still has upside.

Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 1,2,11,12

 

RACE 8: TURCO BRAVO (#2)
This field is remarkably short on runners that have proven themselves at marathon distances on the dirt, and will lose another of those if Tu Brutus is scratched in favor of Saturday's Grade 1 Whitney. Scuba would have been the horse to beat in a race like this last year, but he hasn't quite been himself in three starts in 2017. Perhaps this will be the day he wakes up, but he's likely to take money again and I don't foresee him offering value. Aside from Tu Brutus, Hard Study has run the fastest speed figures recently, but he's raced only up to nine furlongs and there's no guarantee that he really wants to go this far. Therefore, I'm hoping that Turco Bravo can pull off the upset. I know that he, too, has been off form lately, but he might not need to get back to his best efforts in order to win this. He actually showed some subtle signs of life last time, staying on fairly well to be fifth after sustaining a four-wide trip against a decent group going two turns. I think he might be coming around, and now he's reunited with Javier Castellano, who was last aboard when they teamed up to win this race last year.

Win/Place: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,5

 

RACE 9: RUNAWAY POSSE (#7)
This race features about six or seven runners that prefer to be placed on or near the lead in the early going, so the opening fractions should be pretty honest. I'm hoping that's the case, because I have to bet Runaway Posse off his last couple of efforts. This late-runner may be best going slightly farther, but I have no doubt that he can win at this distance given the right setup. Two back he encountered traffic in the stretch as he was making his rally and otherwise would have finished closer. Then last time, he was racing keenly toward the back of the pack, and Irad Ortiz just misjudged his acceleration. He turned him loose far too early, and Runaway Posse ended up rushing to the front by the time the field hit the top of the stretch. Naturally, he got leg-weary late and faded to third, but he may have run the best race. I like that Ortiz is back aboard, since he figures to learn from that last experience.

Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 2,3,4,5,8