by David Aragona
Race 1: 4 - 3 - 6 - 2
Race 2: 12 - 7 - 3 - 4
Race 3: 1 - 6 - 2
Race 4: 1 - 6 - 3 - 5
Race 5: 5 - 6 - 1 - 7
Race 6: 15 - 2 - 14 - 4
Race 7: 2 - 7 - 5 - 3
Race 8: 12 - 8 - 10 - 1
Race 9: 7 - 1 - 10 - 8
Race 10: 2 - 1A - 10 - 7
RACE 1: GYPSY JO (#4)
The primary contenders in this race exit a similar spot on Aug. 2, won by longshot Archumybaby. Satin Sheets and My Won Love are the two that figure to attract support out of their efforts that day. Satin Sheets obviously ran well, as she rated kindly behind horses in a tight pack through the early stages and rallied up the rail to take a short lead at midstretch. She ultimately got outdueled to the wire by the winner, but it was yet another solid performance from this consistent filly as she seems to be holding her form well for the new barn. My Won Love saved no ground while going four wide around the far turn. She reached a contending position at the top of the stretch and just couldn’t go on with the top two late. She’s also in good form, and she clearly fits at this level. I’m using both of them, but the filly that intrigues me most out of that race is Gypsy Jo. I liked her last time, and she did not get the trip that I was hoping for. This filly has run best when she can be forwardly placed, and she was never able to get into that position after breaking a bit slowly. She ended up getting put into a tight spot between horses at the back of the pack, and she had to steady off runners’ heels when searching for room at the quarter pole. That was her first race off a three-month layoff, and she has a right to be sharper for this second start back. I know she looks a bit cheaper than some others in here, but she actually ran well enough to win this three back on April 13 when earning a 104 TimeformUS Speed Figure, one of the highest numbers in the field. Today, the Pace Projector is predicting that she will be on the lead in a situation favoring the front-runner.
RACE 8: STONEFACTOR (#12)
If Hannah’s Smile draws into this race, she is obviously the horse to beat. I don’t mind the cutback to 5 1/2 furlongs for her, and she has simply run well enough to win at this level in both of her starts in 2018. She was too close to a fast pace two back and understandably tired late. Then last time she was in position to win but had trouble closing as the winner floated her out through the lane. I wouldn’t be too concerned about the layoff since her last race since she’s been rained off the turf a number of times. The only issue with her, and other short prices in this race, is the overall lack of speed in this field. I think that makes Stonefactor very dangerous on the front end. I know that it’s not easy for a speed to break from the outside post position, but Kendrick Carmouche is going to be intent on making the front and she just appears to be faster than horses like Citizen Matzo and Lulu’s Pom Pom. If he can get her over to the hedge in the early going, I think she’ll be tough to run down. I know her speed figures are bit slower than those of Hannah’s Smile, but she actually ran better than it seems in some of her 2-year-old races, and her last performance on the dirt suggests that she may still be improving. At bigger prices, I also would consider Spa Treatment, who has had a number of tough trips on the turf, and Baronet, who was eased last time and may appreciate turning back in distance.
RACE 10: DARK OPS (#2)
There are many contenders to consider in this wide-open maiden race. Suas may go off as the favorite, despite having lost at short prices in two straight starts at Belmont. I thought he ran well two back when making the first move into a fast pace, but his last race was somewhat disappointing. He had little answer for the winner late, and now he’s stepping up into arguably the toughest field he’s ever faced. Charlton Baker has entered a pair, of which Ready Escape appears to be the stronger half of the entry. He showed promise despite racing greenly in his debut, and then showed improvement second out when finishing behind the once-promising A True Giant. However, it’s taken him a long time to get back to the races since then and he’s been gelded in the interim. I’m using these two, but the one that I want to bet in this spot is Dark Ops. This colt is making his belated 3-year-old debut and now goes out for Jeremiah Englehart’s barn. He was clearly well-regarded heading into his debut last summer as he got bet down to 6-5 favoritism in a tough maiden race. He ran well that day, but never stepped forward in his subsequent starts. He did show some signs of life going a mile Oct. 19, but it appeared that he didn’t really get the distance in either start at a mile. I think he’s starting back at the right distance, and he’s worked very forwardly in the mornings leading up to this return to the races.