by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona
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Race 1: 7 - 1 - 3 - 2
Race 2: 5 - 7 - 4 - 8
Race 3: 3 - 2 - 1 - 4
Race 4: 3 - 1 - 6 - 5
Race 5: 6 - 11 - 1 - 7
Race 6: 3 - 8 - 9 - 11
Race 7: 9 - 10 - 12 - 1
Race 8: 5 - 9 - 8 - 6
Race 9: 3 - 5 - 4 - 6
Race 10: 8 - 6 - 11 - 1
RACE 3: MINSKY MOMENT (#3)
One of the two runners likely to take money in this race is Control Group, who I am firmly against in this spot. He earned one of the highest speed figure in the field in his last start, as he drew off to a facile victory against claiming company. A similar effort might win this race, but I doubt we'll see it. He had everything in his favor last time, since August 13 at Saratoga featured one of the most pronounced rail biases of the entire meet, and he set the pace inside throughout. Furthermore, he is now going to have to deal with the early speed of Crafty Concorde. I much prefer his chief rival Minsky Moment. This horse finished a close second to New York Derby runner-up Broken Engagement in a maiden race three back, but has not run quite as fast in his two subsequent starts. His last race looks disappointing as he lost as the 1-2 favorite, but he was racing three-wide against a very strong rail bias that day, while both the winner and third-place finisher stayed inside all the way. That performance is much better than it appears, and I think he can beat this field over a fair racetrack. I'll use him over his stablemate, Born for a Storm, who stretches out to two turns for the first time, in an effort to get likely underlay Control Group out of the mix.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,2
Trifecta: 3 with 1,2 with ALL
RACE 6: ROYAL ASSET (#3)
The likely favorite is Grandy Sky, who won over this course a few weeks in dominant fashion as he made his first start off the claim by Jason Servis. He certainly has a chance to win right back in this spot, but he looks to be facing a tougher field this time. Jason Servis runners are always dangerous in turf sprints, and he's having a fantastic Saratoga meet, but I think this runner is likely to be overbet. Two of the solid alternatives are Hold Me Black and Banana Thief, who both ran well in a similar spot earlier in the month. Hold Me Black made the first move into a race that was collapsing late, while Banana Thief encountered some traffic trouble in the lane. I'll use both, but my top pick is Royal Asset. I know that this horse has never won on the turf, but he's actually run better than it might appear on that surface. He had a nightmare of a trip when he made his debut on this surface some two years ago, and then only tried grass twice more, both time as a four-year-old. In the first of those efforts, he had the misfortune of running into Disco Partner just as that one was getting good, and then on July 1, 2016 he couldn't quite keep up through quick early fractions. This time, the Pace Projector is predicting that he will be the early pacesetter in a situation that is expected to favor the front-runner. He's actually run reasonably well in his recent dirt races, and I think he can pull off the minor upset.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 4,8,9,11
RACE 7: GOSILENTLY (#9)
The horses to beat are the two coming out of the maiden special weight race run here on August 6. Both Appealing Briefs and Summer Mischief ran well that day would be formidable here with a repeat of those efforts. However, they are both stuck in outside post positions, which can be difficult to overcome in these one-mile races on the inner turf course. My top pick is also drawn towards the outside, but at least possesses the speed to cross over and clear the field early. The Pace Projector is predicting that Gosilently will be setting the pace in the opening stages, and I think this horse has a legitimate chance to lead them all the way. He’s only made one prior start against New York-breds on the turf, having since run in open company at Tampa Bay and Indiana Downs. While one might not think highly of the competition he’s been facing at those tracks, he is actually coming out of a very tough race. Last time out on July 18, he was part of a contested early pace and was the only horse involved in that pace to still be around at the finish. Furthermore, horse after horse has come back out of that race to improve. The first, second, fifth, and seventh place finishers all returned to win next time out. The winner improved his TimeformUS Speed Figure by 11 points in his subsequent start, the fifth-place finisher improved by 17 points, and the seventh-place finisher improved by 6 points. That may have been a much stronger race than it seems and I expect Gosilently to be competitive here even as he faces an above par group of New York-breds.
Win/Place: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 10,12
RACE 8: NUTZFORBOLTZ (#5)
I don't want the majority of the horses coming out of the race at this level that was run on August 6. Manifest Destiny beat many of today's rivals in that spot, but he also got a great trip, setting a slow pace going a mile on the inner turf course, a distance that favors inside speed horses. This time, he is likely to face more pressure from Mission Leader, and possibly others. The obvious trip horse out of that race is Ode to the Hunt, who was stymied in traffic for much of the stretch drive and may have won had he ever gotten a clear path. That said, he was able to save ground around both turns, which enhanced his late kick. That was not the case for Nutzforboltz. Even though he ended up finishing last in that race, I think he ran a deceptively strong race. He hopped at the start and spotted the field multiple lengths, placing him at the back of the pack early. From there, he was never inside, and even launched a four-wide bid around the far turn before flattening out late. This horse is certainly capable of being more forwardly placed in his races, and should have gotten needed fitness out of that last effort. If he can get back to his prior start, in which he was second to Black tide, I think he has a real shot to win at a price.
Win/Place: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 2,6,8,9
Trifecta: 5,9 with 5,9 with 2,6,8