PICKS

Race 1:   5 - 6 - 3 - 1
Race 2:   11 - 2 - 4 - 9
Race 3:   3 - 6 - 2 - 1
Race 4:   6 - 5 - 7 - 1
Race 5:   3 - 2 - 6 - 8
Race 6:   7 - 9 - 5 - 1
Race 7:   7 - 6 - 1 - 3
Race 8:   2 - 5 - 6 - 1
Race 9:   4 - 2 - 1 - 8
Race 10:   4 - 1 - 7 - 6

PLAYS

(Guide - WIN: recommended win/key horse at fair odds; UPGRADE: value horses I picked underneath to consider upgrading in vertical/horizontal wagers; USE: runners to include in vertical exotic wagers with Win horse)

RACE 1: SICILIAN GRANDMA (#5)

I wanted to stay away from the likely favorites in this maiden claiming affair. #2 Girl Afraid has finished second in both starts, but I didn’t think she ran particularly well either time. She lost as a heavy favorite in her debut at Belterra, and then last time didn’t have a major excuse when not earning much of a speed figure at Monmouth. Welsey Ward hasn’t been as dangerous with this 2-year-olds this year as in the past, and I wanted to look elsewhere. #3 Acqua Bella should also get bet for Tood Pletcher with Irad Ortiz riding. The dam was stakes-placed on dirt and she comes into this debut showing a long string of workouts. She can obviously win, but Todd Pletcher doesn’t have particularly strong stats with debut runners in maiden claiming races. My top pick is #5 Sicilian Grandma. I thought this filly ran better than the result might indicate in her debut at Ellis Park. She looked a little uncomfortable racing inside on the turn, dropping back quickly while racing greenly before gathering herself to stay on through the stretch. I expect her to run better this time and she’s placed at an appropriate level for her second start. The other one that I would use is #6 Ocean Honey. She faded pretty badly first time out, but did so behind a runaway winner. Trainer James Chapman doesn’t have particularly strong stats with debut runners, but he does much better with second time starting 2-year-old maidens.

WIN: #5 Sicilian Grandma, at 5-2 or greater
USE: 6

RACE 7: ALWAYZ LATE (#7)

A couple of runners in this field exit a July 8 race at this level from Belmont. #1 Bye Bye figures to attract support off her third-place finish that day, as she and others were compromised by the extremely slow pace set by winner Bay Storm. That said, Bye Bye was in relatively close attendance to that pace and had her chance to challenge in upper stretch, but was just unable to kick with the winner late. She may appreciate the slight turnback in distance, but I preferred another from that race. #7 Alwayz Late is the one who really had no chance to make an impact in that July 8 affair, as she was restrained at the back of the pack early and left with too much ground to make up. The winner sprinted home the last quarter in about 22-flat, so she had no chance to make a serious impact closing into such a fast final split. However, she did make up some ground despite the fact that she altered course multiple times during the drive, searching for the best path. She’s now been hindered by unfavorable pace scenarios twice in a row and is in better form than it appears. Her main rival may be #6 Mail Order, who has the tactical speed to get the jump on her. This daughter of Liam’s Map will attempt to turn back again after winning in her first attempt at 6 furlongs last time. Though she started out her career going longer, she’s bred to be fast, as he dam is a half-sister to globetrotting Japanese turf sprinter Agnes World.

WIN: #7 Alwayz Late, at 5-2 or greater
USE: 6

RACE 8: BAL HARBOUR (#2)

#5 Art Collector figures to go favored here as he attempts to win the Alydar for the second consecutive year. However, there are some questions for him to answer as he attempts to get back on track following a disappointing overseas trip to the Saudi Cup. While he did run some impressive speed figures during his win streak last year, he also got fantastic trips and setups in a few of those races. He may work out another good trip here as the likely controlling speed in a situation where the Pace Projector is favoring runners on or near the lead. That said, it’s no guarantee that he’s ready to deliver a top effort off the layoff and there are some talented rivals in this race. #1 Mystic Night figures to take money as he goes out for the popular duo of Chad Brown and Irad Ortiz. He’s won two optional claimers in a row, but he was a non-threatening 6th in his only prior start against stakes company last winter. I thought he was beating a weaker field last time and I don’t trust him to show up in class at what could be an underlay. #4 King Fury and #6 Masqueparade are the other logical alternatives, but I haven’t been thrilled with the performances of either since they contested last summer’s Travers. I’m going in a different direction with #2 Bal Harbour. The obvious drawback with this horse is his lack of recent victories. To be specific, he’s lost 19 straight races, and hasn’t won since Nov. 2018. However, he did run some of his best races for trainer Todd Pletcher, and now he’s returning to that barn as he attempts to get back on track. He put in the best effort of his career when second in the 2019 Woodward over this same course and distance. I like the way he’s training for this return and he figures to be a square price even as he picks up Flavien Prat.

WIN: #2 Bal Harbour, at 9-2 or greater

RACE 9: BYE BYE MELVIN (#4)

I don’t have a major knock against #2 Atone, who deserves to be favored as he drops out of a series of graded stakes events. He’s been in excellent form since the winter, and a repeat of his Forbidden Apple performances makes him the one to beat. He obviously runs well at Saratoga, and I like that he’s sticking at this one-mile distance. Chad Brown leaves in #1 Emaraaty, as Good Governance is scratching to race on Saturday instead. He ran reasonably well last time and has races that make him competitive here, though he figures to be a shorter price after the scratch. #8 Forty Under is perhaps more interesting from that last race, as he was involved in the quick pace before fading a bit at the end. I’m instead getting a little more creative with my top pick, #4 Bye Bye Melvin. This 5-year-old hasn’t raced in over a year, but he had been in decent form in the early part of 2021. I thought he ran well to just miss in a tough allowance at Keeneland off the layoff last year, earning a competitive speed figure. Things obviously went awry in the Manhattan last time, but I think he’s now returning at an appropriate distance. Graham Motion has solid stats off layoffs and he figures to fly under the radar in a competitive affair.

WIN: #4 Bye Bye Melvin, at 6-1 or greater
USE: 1,2,8

RACE 10: FREEDOMOFTHEPRESS (#4)

#7 Miss Domina is the obvious dropdown in this race, but I’m reluctant to just default to her at a short price. She ran her best race on the dirt winning up here last summer. She did subsequently put in a good effort to be third on grass at the allowance level, but her form hasn’t been as strong since then. She tried an ambitious spot off the layoff last time and now is placed more realistically at this starter allowance level. She’s the one to beat, but I was more interested in some others. I think #1 Stuck On Kitten could run better this time after just looking like she might have needed a race coming off the layoff at Belmont. Her form prior to that had been strong, but she just seemed to get a little outrun in the early stages of that July 8 event and was unable to recover. They both make sense, but my top pick is another horse from that July 8 affair. #4 Freedomofthepress put in a huge effort that day, as she was the one pressing that incredibly fast early pace. She took over with an eighth of a mile to go, but was unable to hold off the closers in a race that fell apart late. She strikes me as one that should be suited by this slight turnback in distance. She has tactical speed, but doesn’t need to be in front, so I’m expecting her to sit a stalking trip. That 99 TimeformUS Speed Figure from last time arguably makes her the one to beat, and she won’t be favored.

WIN: #4 Freedomofthepress, at 2-1 or greater
USE: 1