by David Aragona
Get the wagering strategy for this card in this year’s TimeformUS Saratoga Betting Strategies package, which includes PPs for each day of the meet, exclusive access to the daily Highlight Horse, multi-race ticket constructions, and additional analysis of every stakes race at the meet. More info ›
Race 1: 1 - 6 - 4 - 2
Race 2: 2 - 7 - 1 - 5
Race 3: 3 - 5 - 1 - 2
Race 4: 1A - 4 - 3 - 2
Race 5: 8 - 7 - 6 - 2
Race 6: 8 - 7 - 2 - 6
Race 7: 8 - 2 - 6 - 3
Race 8: 6 - 5 - 1 - 2
Race 9: 6 - 2 - 4 - 1A
Race 10: 1 - 9 - 10 - 7
RACE 3: BAD BOY (#3)
The entry figures to attract plenty of support in this spot merely because you get two contenders for the price of one. However, I wouldn’t be particularly enticed by either of these runners as separate betting interest, so why am I supposed to consider them as a pair? Rhode Island may have been somewhat compromised by a moderate pace in his first start off the claim for Linda Rice, but he was still supposed to have more to offer in the lane. Mo Gee is even less appealing in spite of the claim by the sharp Robertino Diodoro barn. This horse has never won on turf and has squandered multiple good opportunities to win since coming to New York. The two main alternatives are Sargeant Drive and Bad Boy. I have a feeling that many will gravitate towards the former due to his prior superior speed figures. Yet most of those numbers were earned on dirt, and his form had tailed off significantly for Shug McGaughey prior to the purchase by the new owners. Mike Maker has a knack for resurrecting these types, but this horse may ultimately want more distance than this. I think Bad Boy just makes a ton of sense as he steps up against winners for the first time. He wasn’t beating the toughest field last time, but he earned a win over the course, doing so despite racing 3 wide around both turns. He had run well in almost all of his starts against tougher maiden special weight foes and it’s possible that the light bulb has just gone on now that he’s finally made that long-awaited trip to the winner’s circle.
RACE 6: ERIN MORE (#8)
Brittas Bay is probably the horse to beat in this competitive maiden turf sprint. She confirmed that the improvement she displayed in her 3- year-old debut at Keeneland was not tied to the dirt surface when she transferred that form to the grass last time. She was helped by the slow pace in a race dominated on the front end, but she importantly showed a preference for sprinting on turf. It’s unclear if she possesses the early speed to work out the same trip as last time, but it might not matter since she could simply be the best horse in this race. I’m not really against her, but others may offer better value. Tan and Tight and Prosperity exit the same race at this level on July 13. Tan and Tight finished ahead of Prosperity that day, but she was aided by a moderate pace up front. Prosperity seems likely to take a step forward in her second career start. I do find it a little curious that Graham Motion isn’t stretching her out in distance due to her stamina-oriented pedigree, but he does have solid statistics with second time starters in turf sprints. I’m using all of these runners prominently, but my top pick is the first time starter Erin More. Her sire More Than Ready wins with 11% of his first time starters and 12% of his first time turfers. The dam (3 for 7, $130,000) was a capable dirt sprinter, but her best foal to date has been McErin (3 for 11, $121,000), a turf sprint specialist who earned a career-best 116 TimeformUS Speed Figure going 5 1/2 furlongs over this course last summer. Todd Pletcher is 3 for 16 (19%, $2.31 ROI) with 3-year-olds debuting in turf sprints over 5 years. She faces a tall order in this salty field, but she appears to be working well for her debut.
RACE 7: CERRETALTO (#8)
H Man may go off as the favorite in this spot, though I’m starting to wonder if the renaissance that he experienced after the claim by Jason Servis coming to an end. He was uncharacteristically dull last time, always struggling to keep up early and unable to even forge past leader Ready to Escape for second in the stretch. Looking back at his prior wins from Belmont, he had things in his favor in both of those victories and he may not be quite as dominant as he seems. I want to go in a different direction. Binkster seems like a reliable option after he ran so well to be second to T Loves a Fight at this level last time. He was certainly flattered when that horse returned to finish a close fourth in a tough John Morrissey last week. Binkster arguably ran a better race than the winner, since he moved into a fast pace in a race that ultimately fell apart. I’m using him prominently, but I think one of the horses who finished behind him in that July 14 affair has a chance to turn the tables. Cerretalto seemed like one of the top contenders coming into that race, but he was totally dead on the board throughout the wagering, ultimately going off at 6-1. That seemed especially odd, considering that most H. James Bond horses have been live in recent weeks. All things considered, Cerretalto didn’t run that badly to be fourth, since he also was affected by the hot early pace. He seems to run best when he can sit off the leaders and make one run, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see his connections change up the tactics this time. He’s obviously good enough to win at this level, having already done so before, and I won’t be shocked to see him give a much better account of himself this time.
RACE 8: LUCKY MOVE (#6)
There’s little doubt that Held Accountable is the one to beat in this Saratoga Dew. She’s proven that she handles the distance on multiple occasions and she owns the best set of speed figures in two-turn races on the dirt. Phil Serpe gave her plenty of time off at the start of this year, but she got right back on track in her return two weeks ago. That July 26 race is difficult to analyze, since it was run over a heavily biased racetrack. Any horses that raced near the rail were badly compromised, and Held Accountable may have just been passing tiring runners in the final half-mile due to her path down the center of the course. Yet it’s not as if that’s the only competitive race that she’s run, and she’s been better over fast tracks in the past. If she gets a little pace to close into, she’s going to be difficult to fend off late. I’m using her, but I actually prefer another closer. Lucky Move made a successful return to New York for new trainer Bentley Combs earlier in the meet and she put forth an effort that should translate well into this stakes event. The pace of that race was fairly moderate for the distance, and Lucky Move was the only horse to launch a serious late bid in a race where few others changed position. Joel Rosario rode her with plenty of patience and her ample stamina obviously came through. I see no reason why a similar scenario wouldn’t play out here, as there once again isn’t a ton of early pace in this race and many of her rivals are highly questionable in the stamina department. Out of Orbit is predicted to be on the lead in a situation favoring the front-runner by the Pace Projector, but she tops out at a mile and could find this two-turn distance to be too demanding.
RACE 9: THE J Y (#6)
Hierarchy is the horse to beat after selling for $155,000 at the Fasig-Tipton July sale and being transferred to trainer Joe Sharp. He's earned the fastest speed figures, but I don’t totally trust this horse going 1 1/16 miles. He’s a classic plodder, with no apparent turn of foot who wants to just gallop his rivals into the ground. He can do that over longer distances, but you often need a strong turn of foot to win turf races going these shorter distances. Perhaps Joe Sharp will put some speed into this horse, but I’m a little skeptical at a short price. That said, I do prefer him to Financial System, who just hasn’t been very effective in either start this season for Chad Brown. He’s going to take money due to the connections, and I’m just not much of a fan. I’m taking a shot against these horses with The J Y. I know that he looks a cut below the top contenders from a class perspective, but I think he’s encountering a very favorable scenario here. The Pace Projector is predicting a No Speed situation, but The J Y might be able to exploit that lack of pace due to his aggressive running style. While he’s not a one-dimensional front-runner, he possesses the speed to lead this field early going this distance. His return win at Belmont was workmanlike against weaker foes, but he should improve on the stretch-out. At his best, he was capable of finishing third at this level behind horses like Hembree and Lunaire, both of whom would be formidable in a spot like this.
RACE 10: ARTEMUS BRIDGE (#1)
This finale seems totally wide-open, as you can build a solid case for just about all of the horses entered for turf. Dakota’s Dude may be the one to beat, but he had a lot go right for him in that June 15 win at Belmont and he didn’t draw the best post position this time. Tricky Magician also makes some sense as he drops in class out of a tougher spot in his second start off the layoff. I’m using horses like this, but this feels like a spot in which we can shop for a higher price. My top pick is first time turfer Artemus Bridge. It’s a little curious that his prior connections – who would be well aware of this horse’s obvious turf pedigree – never gave him a chance on the grass. Though, that can be partially explained due to the fact that he was stable in Kentucky during the winter, where there is no turf racing. Perhaps there were other horses to run in those claiming turf spots when the spring rolled around, but it’s still a little odd that he wasn’t pointed to a turf event at Churchill. That said, he’s finally getting on what should be his preferred surface. Trainer Steve Klesaris claimed this horse with the apparent intention to get immediately on turf. He was rained off at Parx last time, but he gets his chance here. Verrazano is turning out to be a decent turf sire and the dam’s side is all grass. Most notably, this colt is a half-brother to Fast Track Kathern, who won a turf race up here last summer. I like the rider switch to Joel Rosario, and he drew a great post position. With the exception of the last race, this colt seems like a hard trier who should put forth an honest effort.