by David Aragona
Now Available: TimeformUS Saratoga PPs and Betting Strategies
Gain access to TimeformUS PPs for all 40 days of the Saratoga meet, plus betting strategies – recommended wagers for each of David Aragona's daily Top Plays, fully constructed multi-race tickets including daily Pick-4s and Pick-5s, and additional strategic information around playing every card. You will also receive exclusive access to David's Highlight Horses, as well as opinions on all stakes races. Learn more ›
Race 1: 2 - 4 - 8 - 1
Race 2: 7 - 6 - 3 - 5
Race 3: 6 - 3 - 2 - 1
Race 4: 7 - 4 - 8 - 1
Race 5: 9 - 1 - 3 - 5
Race 6: 4 - 7 - 1 - 8
Race 7: 2 - 5 - 1 - 4
Race 8: 6 - 2 - 3 - 5
Race 9: 9 - 6 - 7 - 8
RACE 2: FINGERPAINT (#7)
Brooklyn Gerty may win this race at a very short price, but this is not the kind of runner that I’m ever going to pick. Her merits are obvious. She has faced significantly tougher company in her maiden special weight races, and she has earned a pair of speed figures that are both faster than the highest dirt number of any other horse in this field. However, both of those races came 15 months ago, and she’s now dropping in for a tag in her return. Furthermore, she’s exiting the Chad Brown barn and instead being sent out by Jorge Abreu this afternoon. To his credit, Abreu is having an excellent Saratoga meet thus far, but I’m still pretty skeptical of this runner. While I could use horses like Free Kitty and Malarkey, I strongly prefer Fingerpaint, who finally gets the class relief that she needs. I know that it doesn’t appear that this filly has done much running in her races – in fact she’s never lost by less than a double-digit margin – but she’s been in some tough maiden heats and I think she has a bit more ability than she’s had the chance to display. While they’ve gone longer distances with her in most starts, I’m actually intrigued by this turnback in distance, especially now that she’s shown the ability to be more forwardly placed.
RACE 8: WEGETSDAMUNNYS (#6)
The primary players in this race are exiting another division of the New York Stallion Series on June 24, contested over 7 furlongs. Kreesie got up for the win that day over Goodbye Brockley, as both got decent trips. The horse that undoubtedly ran the best race in that spot was Mentality, who was involved in a fast early pace that fell apart. However, she ran in a turf sprint on Monday and is uncertain to wheel back in just 3 days. If Mentality did start, she would likely help to ensure an honest pace for the closers drawn to her inside. I slightly prefer Goodbye Brockley to Kreesie in this situation, given her experience going route distances. Kreesie has run well so far this year, but she’s gotten very favorable setups in her races at 7 furlongs, and I’m not sure that she can transfer that form to this two-turn configuration. Goodbye Brockley has at least shown that she can race up closer to the pace if they slow down the tempo early. I’m using her, but I’m actually most interested in a filly that finished just behind them in that June 24 stakes. Wegetsdamunnys also benefitted from the strong early pace that day, but I thought she wasn’t able to carry her momentum forward into the final eighth of a mile as she had to alter course multiple times. Manny Franco had to briefly pause on her late in the stretch as horses came together, which may have cost her a better placing. I had been interested in this filly that day due to her strong dam-side turf pedigree, and I believe she confirmed that grass is her preferred surface. They tried going a route distance for the first time on dirt in the New York Oaks last month, and she actually put in a decent rally despite going extremely wide around the far turn. She appears to be coming into this race in good form, and she figures to be a price once again.
RACE 9: DOROTHY’S DREAM (#9)
We’ll see who remains in this race after scratches, but it would appear that the majority of horses that are going to take money will be getting bet primarily off turf races. If Dreamers and Me, Something Joyful, or Mama Mary stay in this race, I think it’s wise to take a stand against them. Given the lack of form in this race, I’m going to stick with my original pick on the turf, as she now seems like an even more logical option on the dirt. Dorothy’s Dream is not the kind of horse that would usually get me excited, as a 6-year-old more making just her fourth lifetime start. However, I think this is a rare situation where this senior member of the field deserves a second chance at being a racehorse. She made 3 starts in quick succession in the summer and fall of 2016, going out for low-percentage trainer who typically struggle on this circuit. Despite those connections, she didn’t run terribly in her previous starts at this level. I thought that her rider didn’t make much of an attempt to get her involved in her last turf start on Sep. 15, as he let her go extremely wide on the turn and lose position. Now she returns in the barn of Jorge Abreu, who has gotten off to a strong start at this Saratoga meet. Watching some of her recent workouts on the dirt, she appears to be a more athletic horse than she was two years ago, and I think it’s a great sign that they aren’t immediately dropping her in for a tag. Furthermore, her only prior start on dirt might be good enough to earn her a large slice of the pie against this bunch.